Wednesday’s NIT Quarterfinals Gameday Guide: Preview, Lines & Analysis

After an exciting first two quarterfinal-round games Tuesday night, the NIT continues Wednesday with another pair of high-stakes clashes.

Both of Wednesday’s games see the favorites carrying single-digit projected advantages, so the potential for a pair of wire-to-wire matchups is there. Without further ado, here’s a closer look at Wednesday’s pair of quarterfinal-round matchups:

Wednesday’s NIT Quarterfinals Locations & Schedule

Below is a list of NIT quarterfinals games sorted by location, tip-off time, and tv channel. 

UD Arena – (Dayton, Ohio)

• Illinois State at Dayton – Wednesday, March 25, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2) 

Neville Arena – (Auburn, Alabama)

• Nevada at Auburn – Wednesday, March 25, 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Illinois State at Dayton Game Odds & Analysis

The Redbirds’ two tournament wins to date have been seen them have to exert significantly different degrees of effort. Illinois State’s opening-round win was predictably the more comfortable one, as they recorded 79-58 victory over Kent State. The Redbirds shot 37% from three-point range and committed just four turnovers, but they got a much more formidable challenge in the second round from Wake Forest. The two teams played to a halftime tie, and even though the Demon Deacons outshot them by a 50%-41% margin, Illinois State managed to edge its opponent on the strength of a 46-point second half.

The Flyers, meanwhile, have been a bit more convincing all the way around in their first two NIT contests. Dayton has recorded 80-66 and 80-61 wins over Bradley and UNC-Wilmington, respectively, to push their record since the start of the regular season to 25-11. The Flyers were crisp on offense in both games, shooting 52% overall in each. Dayton was typically opportunistic on defense in both games as well, recording 10 and nine turnovers, respectively.

The stat sheet side-by-side comparison between these two teams is extremely close in virtually every category, with the exception of steals. As already alluded to, the Flyers were much more effective at taking the ball away, ranking 37th in the country with 8.2 steals per game. The Redbirds were reasonably effective at ball security; however, with forward Chase Walker ranking as the team’s highest scorer with a modest 13.7 points per contest, Illinois State could have an uphill battle generating enough offense to keep up with a Dayton squad that’s spearheaded by talented guards Javon Bennett (16.3 PPG) and De’Shayne Montgomery (13.6 PPG, 49.2% shooting).

Nevada at Auburn Game Odds & Analysis

The Wolf Pack has opened the NIT with two double-digit victories that have pushed their record to 24-12 since the start of the regular season. Nevada opened with an 89-75 thumping of Murray State, shooting 51% from the floor and 89% from the free-throw line, while also committing only five turnovers. Steve Alford’s squad then gutted out a 73-63 win over Liberty in the second round, one in which they went a stellar 19-for-20 from the free-throw line and outrebounded the Flames, 42-23.

Auburn came into the tournament with a scrappy 17-16 record, and its first two victories have fittingly been relatively close games. Although the Tigers got past their first-round opponent, South Alabama, by a 78-67 score, they actually had to overcome a 36-30 halftime deficit with the help of an outstanding 48-point second-half showing. The Tigers then had to grind through a matchup against Seattle University, which actually shot 52%, including 50% from behind the arc, in a 91-85 loss. However, Auburn won the rebounding battle by an expansive 41-23 margin and led for the majority of the game, with the Tigers’ offensive effort much more consistent than in the first contest.

While the Tigers have a clear offensive advantage on paper — they rank 38th in the country with 82.8 points per game, while Nevada checks in 168th with 76.2 points per contest — the Wolf Pack’s defense shapes up as the superior one with 71.4 points per game and middling 43.8% shooting allowed. Auburn will present a stiff challenge however. The Tigers saw four players average double-digit points, led by senior forward Keyshawn Hall, who’s delivered a career-best 19.5 points this season, and sophomore guard Tahaad Pettiford (15.2 PPG). However, on the other side, Nevada’s senior guard Corey Camper, who’s put up 16.8 points with the help of 39.8% three-point shooting, could give an Auburn squad that’s ranked 316th in the country with 79.2 points per game and 46.4% shooting allowed plenty of trouble.

Men’s NIT Quarterfinals Best Bet

As just noted, the Wolf Pack are a solid defensive squad that’s almost certainly going to make at least a slight ding in Auburn’s typical offensive upside. Nevada has a net +4.8-point differential since the start of the regular season, in part because of their ability to suppress opponent scoring.

Meanwhile, Auburn had a -4.9 point differential away from its home floor this season, while Nevada is 2-0 ATS in its first two tournament games and 5-2 against the number in its games as an away underdog since the start of the campaign. Auburn is only 1-3 as a road favorite this season as well, leading me in the direction of a Wolf Pack cover of a generous 9.5-point spread.

Best Bet: Nevada

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images