World Cup Top Prediction Market Trades for Games on Thursday, June 25, 2026
It’s time for Day 15 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. We’ve got six games on tap for Thursday, June 25th. Curaçao/Côte d’Ivoire and Ecuador/Germany go at it at 4 p.m. ET, Tunisia/Netherlands and Japan/Sweden face each other at 7 p.m. ET, while Paraguay/Australia and Türkiye/USA finish off the slate at 10 p.m. ET.
We’re going to dive into each matchup and then provide my favorite buys for the day.
With that in mind, let’s dive into our top prediction market trades for Thursday, June 25. Make sure to check out our World Cup match trends page for daily odds, insights, and betting data for each game.
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Top Prediction Market Trades: Best World Cup Trades for Thursday, June 25
Côte d’Ivoire to Win By More Than 2.5 Goals vs. Curaçao: No (0.60¢ at Kalshi)
Curaçao is coming off an impressive 0-0 draw against Ecuador. They still have a chance to qualify for the knockout round, but they’d need to shock the world with a win over Côte d’Ivoire, who had a second-half lead over Germany before losing 2-1.
While Côte d’Ivoire is the better side, Curaçao has proven that it can keep a game close. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them put a scare in Côte d’Ivoire here.
Taking a team to win by 3+ goals is a big ask, especially for a mid-tier side like Côte d’Ivoire. They don’t really need to worry about goal differential, as a win would keep them in 2nd place. The score line doesn’t matter, so they aren’t incentivized to run up the score.
Germany to Win By More Than 1.5 Goals vs. Ecuador: No (0.72¢ at Kalshi)
Germany has already locked up 1st in Group E, so they have nothing to play for, which is why they’ll be resting players. Meanwhile, Ecuador needs a win to advance to the knockout round.
While Germany is the better team, there’s nothing at stake for them here. That makes me want to buy Ecuador +1.5 in this spot. I currently have Ecuador +0.5 as a posted play, but that’s not available at Kalshi, so we’ll go with +0.5.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Ecuador win this one outright, so getting them to keep it close looks like a no-brainer, especially in a win-or-go-home situation.
Netherlands/Tunisia Over 3.5 Goals: No (0.56¢ at Kalshi)
Netherlands can lock up 1st in Group F with a win while maintaining an edge in goal differential over Japan. Tunisia has been a disaster so far, getting outscored 9-1 in two losses to Sweden and Japan.
With Netherlands having conceded a goal in each of their two games, I think we’ll see them clean things up defensively. They’re motivated to keep a clean sheet vs. an underwhelming Tunisia side that just changed managers.
As for Tunisia, even though they have nothing to play for, you have to think they’re motivated for a respectable result to finish the tournament. Simply put, they don’t want to get blown out again. This feels like 2-0 or 3-0 for Netherlands.
Japan to Win vs Sweden (0.53¢ at Kalshi)
Japan has been extremely impressive so far, earning a 2-2 draw vs a strong Netherlands side while blowing out Tunisia 4-0. Sweden followed up a 5-1 win over Tunisia with a 5-1 loss to Netherlands.
Sweden can advance with a draw or a close enough loss, while Japan still has eyes on 1st place. I’m not going to overthink this one. Japan looks underpriced given how much better they’ve looked compared to Sweden.
Look for the Blue Samurai to earn a 2-1 or 3-1 win in this spot.
Paraguay/Australia: Draw (0.44¢ at Kalshi)
We have an interesting scenario in Group D, where a draw will allow both Paraguay and Australia to advance, while a loss would likely eliminate them from the tournament.
That creates a game environment where both teams will avoid unnecessary risks like the plague. This is reflected in the game total, which sits at an extremely low 1.5 goals.
Given the circumstances, the draw looks like the right side, even at the inflated price. A 0-0 or 1-1 score line feels likely. It wouldn’t be the first time that two teams on an international stage tied on purpose. Think back to when Denmark and Sweden tied 2-2 in Euro 2004 to secure both sides’ position in the next round. It’ll likely happen again here.
Türkiye/USA Both Teams to Score: Yes (0.56¢ at Kalshi)
You can make a legitimate argument that Türkiye is the most disappointing team in the tournament. Despite peppering both Australian and Paraguay goalkeepers with shot attempts, they’ve yet to score a goal.
Having already been eliminated, the only motivating factor right now is to find the back of the net at least once. Facing a USA squad that has clinched 1st in Group D, so they have nothing to play for, that feels likely.
I also like USA to score because they won’t want to get shut out in front of their home crowd, even though there’s zero stakes in this game. Given these circumstances, Both Teams to Score: yes is the right side in my eyes.
Not in a Legal Sports Betting State? Consider Prediction Markets
If legal sportsbooks are not accessible in your area, prediction markets provide a different way to engage with sporting events. Rather than making fixed-odds wagers through a bookmaker, users trade event contracts in an open marketplace. The value of these contracts changes as buying and selling activity shifts, with prices generally reflecting how likely participants believe a result is to occur. Many platforms also give users the ability to close a position before the event is settled, allowing them to secure gains or limit risk.
Sports prediction markets have expanded significantly in recent years. Operators such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Fanatics now offer contracts tied to game results, league champions, individual awards, and other sports outcomes. Depending on the platform, users may also find markets related to politics, financial data releases, entertainment, and major news events.
Prediction markets function differently from traditional sportsbooks because they rely on exchange-style trading and are governed by separate regulatory structures. Access can vary based on both the operator and the user’s location, meaning some platforms may not be available everywhere. Before registering or participating in any market, check the platform’s eligibility guidelines and terms of service to verify that it can be used legally where you reside.
Photo Credit: AP/Ashley Landis
