2020 Quarterback Fantasy Rankings and Projections: Patrick Mahomes #1 Fantasy QB

As the 2019 NFL season comes to an end, fantasy football analysts like me are already coming up with predictions for how the 2020 Fantasy Football season will go. Without a doubt, the quarterback position is one of the most critical areas to pay special attention to in fantasy football. One of the most apparent trends from the 2019 season was that dual-threat quarterbacks were incredibly more valuable than their pure pocket passing counterparts. In addition, only two of the NFL’s top-five passing leaders ranked in the top ten for fantasy points, which further indicates that a combination of rushing and passing success is more valuable than pure passing production. To gain an advantage over your peers, look below at the 2019 summary and projections for the top quarterbacks in the NFL. The order of the quarterbacks on this list is based on their total fantasy point amount in 2019, and only includes players that are currently primed to start for the 2020 season.

QB1 Tier

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

ADP: 12, Auction Price ($200): $30
patrick mahomes
The only reason why Patrick Mahomes landed outside of the top five for quarterback fantasy points is due to a dislocated knee injury that kept him out for two games. Despite this injury, Mahomes finished with 287 fantasy points and averaged 20.5 points in 14 games. For the second straight season in a row, Mahomes threw for 4,000+ yards, 280 yards/game, and 25+ TDs. In addition, Mahomes threw for 300+ yards in 50% of his games this season, which indicates that he has one of the higher ceilings in the league.

Similar to Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston, Patrick Mahomes has one of the highest ceilings in the NFL. Unlike most fantasy quarterbacks, who are matchup dependent, Mahomes plays well regardless of the competition. In fact, he excelled against tough defenses like the Bears and Ravens and had a decent outing against an elite Patriots secondary. The only game Mahomes had with fewer than 10 fantasy points was due to a knee injury that kept him from finishing the game.

Next season, Mahomes is projected to be an elite QB1, who will rank in the top three for fantasy production. From a statistical perspective, Mahomes has been a magnificent gunslinger, who has thrown for 200+ yards in all but two of the games he’s entirely played in. Additionally, Mahomes has had a TD: INT ratio of 4:1+ in each of his last two seasons as the Chiefs franchise quarterback.

Plus, Mahomes is in arguably the best situation of any quarterback across the NFL. He has a top-three play-caller, a great receiving corps, and a great running game to help keep defenses honest. Therefore, Mahomes is one of the only two fantasy quarterbacks who is worthy of consideration for a first-round pick.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4031 36 8 1206 2 287 20.5
2020 4893 42 6 237 1 381.42 23.8

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: 16, Auction Price ($200): $27
lamar jackson
Even though he missed the final week of the 2019 regular season, Lamar Jackson was undisputedly the best quarterback to roster in fantasy football. Jackson finished the year with the NFL’s most touchdown passes, after tossing 36 touchdowns along with 3,127 yards. Undoubtedly, the most explosive aspect about Lamar was his rushing capability, as he was amongst the league’s rushing leaders with 1,206 yards and seven rushing touchdowns.

Throughout the entirety of the season, Lamar Jackson was the most reliable fantasy quarterback and scored 10+ points in every game he played. Moreover, he scored 15+ points in all but one of his games as well. Although, the most promising aspect of Jackson’s fantasy success, is that he achieved this productive season without having a great supporting cast. Coming into the season, the Baltimore Ravens’ receiving corps was ranked as the second-worst unit across the league. This means that Lamar Jackson’s ceiling can only rise or stay relatively stable if the Ravens bolster their receiving corps.

When you look at the advanced analytics, it’s clear that Lamar Jackson has dramatically improved as a passer. In 2018, he had a 24 DYAR, -9.2% DVOA and a 46.2 QBR, which are all abysmal numbers. In fact, he was so elementary as an NFL passer that he was the only rookie drafted in the first round, who didn’t qualify for ranking in Football Outsider statistics. However, this year, Jackson’s DYAR was the fifth-best in the NFL, and his DVOA and QBR ranked in the top two among all NFL quarterbacks.

Heading into 2020, Lamar Jackson is projected to be a tier-one quarterback in fantasy football. His combination of rushing success, coupled with consistent improvement as a passer indicates that Jackson is unlikely to witness regression next season. Given that his offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, is probably going to return to Baltimore in 2020, Jackson is likely to continue playing in an offense that maximizes his skill set. Therefore, fantasy owners can comfortably select Jackson in the latter half of the first round or second round.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3127 36 8 1206 7 415.7 27.7
2020 3248 28 8 1078 8 371.2 23.2

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

ADP: 20, Auction Price ($200): $25
Russell Wilson
For the second time in three years, Russell Wilson was a top-three quarterback in fantasy football. The former Wisconsin Badger finished with 4,110 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and 328.6 fantasy points. In addition, Wilson was an excellent dual-threat QB who ran for 342 yards and three rushing touchdowns. If you’re looking for a solid QB1 option, Russell Wilson is certainly going to be one of the better options in 2020.

Over his last three seasons, Wilson has been exceptional at avoiding interceptions. Since 2017, Wilson has been one of the league’s most efficient passers, holding a 3:1+ TD: INT ratio while scoring 30+ passing TDs in every season during this timespan. In addition, Wilson is averaging less than eight interceptions over his last three seasons. Therefore, Wilson is one of the more risk-averse passers in the NFL and is unlikely to sink your fantasy team with a dud in any given week.

The only issue with Wilson concerns his volatility. Even though Wilson was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL, his fantasy output fluctuated throughout the 2019 season. Following a bye in Week 11, Wilson regressed into a less reliable quarterback, who only managed to score 20+ points once between weeks 12 through 17.

One of the most noticeable aspects of Wilson’s regression is that his decreased productivity was the result of matchups against stingy fantasy defenses like the 49ers and Vikings. Therefore, fantasy owners should complement Wilson with an adequate backup when he plays against tough defenses in 2020. Regardless Wilson is still slated to be a definite QB1.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4110 31 7 342 3 328.6 20.5
2020 4097 35 6 375 4 353.4 22.09

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

ADP: 23, Auction Price ($200): $24
cam newton
Cam Newton’s 2019 season was cut short due to a nagging foot injury that forced him to miss 14 games. While he was injured, Kyle Allen had a horrible season filling in for Newton. Allen ranked 33rd, for both DYAR and DVOA, and ranked in the bottom three for QBR. As a result, Newton is slated to be the Carolina Panthers’ starting quarterback in 2020.

If Panthers coach, Matt Rhule, decides to remain with Cam Newton, this will be great news for fantasy owners. Since 2012, Cam Newton has ranked as a top-five fantasy quarterback four times due to his combination of passing and rushing production. Additionally, Rhule favors running a pistol offense that can lead to lots of rushing success with the read-option. This would especially help Newton be productive in 2019 and could solidify him as a QB2 candidate next season.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 572 0 3 -2 0 16.7 8.3
2020 3906 23 19 798 9 344 21.5

QB2 Tier

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

ADP: 30, Auction Price ($200): $22

This season, Matthew Stafford’s fantasy season was limited to eight games due to a back injury that kept him out of action. In his eight games as the Detroit Lions starting quarterback, Stafford threw for 2,499 yards, 19 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. He also generated 166.6 fantasy points and held the fourth-highest fantasy point average amongst all quarterbacks.

According to advanced analytics, Stafford was on pace for a top ten quarterback season. Stafford ranked in the top ten for DYAR, DVOA, and QBR, while also being on pace for nearly 5,000 passing yards and 40 touchdown passes.
Even though the Lions were one of the most underwhelming teams across the league, Stafford is set up with an excellent opportunity to excel next season. Being surrounded by a receiving corps that includes Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and a bevy of decent running backs should help Stafford solidify himself as a QB2. In fact, Stafford could be one of the biggest fantasy steals next season.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 572 0 3 -2 0 166.6 20.83
2020 4809 40 17 93 1 333.66 20.9

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

ADP: 34, Auction Price ($200): $21
deshaun Watson
For the second straight season, Deshaun Watson performed as a top-five quarterback in fantasy football. The third-year veteran was able to score 321 fantasy points while throwing for 3,827 yards and 26 touchdowns. On the ground, Watson rushed for 413 yards and notched seven rushing touchdowns as a productive dual-threat option. Watson had one of the higher floors among all fantasy quarterbacks because he scored 10+ points in 14 of his 16 games.

The main issue with Watson is that his 2019 stats were a little better than his play was. Even though Watson was the third-best fantasy quarterback, his DYAR and DVOA, both fell outside of the top ten. Additionally, both those measurements regressed in 2019 compared to Watson’s 2018 totals. As a result, Watson’s passing production is likely to regress a little bit and lower his rushing ceiling.

Nevertheless, Watson is still a solid QB2 option with an elite rushing upside. Heading into next season, most of Deshaun Watson’s 2019 receiving corps is under contract through 2020. In fact, the only member of his corps, who is not under contract, is Darren Fells, who only recorded 341 yards this season. Therefore, Watson should be drafted by the end of the fourth round.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3852 26 15 413 7 320.98 20.1
2020 4155 28 16 507 6 332.9 20.8

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

ADP: 41, Auction Price ($200): $20
matt ryan
This season Matt Ryan fell just outside of the top ten for quarterback fantasy points. Throughout the season, Ryan scored 267.3 fantasy points while throwing for 4,400+ passing yards, 26 TDs, and 14 interceptions. Most of Ryan’s fantasy production occurred between Weeks one and six when he averaged 23.2 points per game. From weeks six through 17, Ryan witnessed regression and averaged a measly 14.3 points per game.

Most of Ryan’s regression can be chalked up to him being on a team that had subpar overall efficiency. It also doesn’t help that he was dropping back behind a Falcons’ offensive line that surrendered a whopping 50 sacks (tied for fifth-most in the NFL).

However, Ryan has a very talented group of playmakers like Austin Hooper, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley. Prior to Hooper’s injury, he was on track to have the best fantasy season by all tight ends this year. Additionally, Ridley and Jones are two of the best receivers in the NFC South and will carry Ryan to a bounce-back season in 2020. In fact, Ryan is likely to be a reliable QB2.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4466 26 19 147 1 267.3 17.82
2020 5,172 35 16 112 1 332.08 20.75

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: 50, Auction Price ($200): $18

Kyler Murray was the best rookie quarterback in 2019, and it wasn’t even close. Of all the quarterbacks selected in the 2019 draft, Murray was the only one who started and played in every single game. During the season, Murray scored 285.3 fantasy points while throwing for 3,722 yards and 20 touchdowns. He also was successful on the ground by rushing for the second-most yards amongst all quarterbacks with 544 yards.

For a rookie quarterback, Murray’s season only had a slight amount of volatility. He scored 15+ points in ten of his 16 games this year and scored 10+ points in all but one game. With Kliff Kingsberry returning as his head coach, Kyler’s fantasy production has a high likelihood of improving as they each develop a stronger rapport. Given the success that dual-threat quarterbacks have experienced in recent years, Murray’s rushing ability will heavily assist him in 2020. Therefore, Murray is currently a QB2 with QB3 downside.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3722 20 14 544 4 285.3 17.83
2020 4120 24 11 532 5 322 20.13

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ADP: 52, Auction Price ($200): $17
jameis winston
Surprisingly, Jameis Winston was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the fantasy football season. Despite throwing 30 interceptions, Winston scored 305.4 fantasy points after being the only quarterback to throw for more than 5,000 yards. Every fantasy owner who had Jameis Winston on their roster had to deal with the wild, yet rewarding ride that comes with having Winston your roster.

At his best, Winston is a phenomenal quarterback who threw for 300+ yards in 11 of his 16 games this season. He also is great at finding the end zone and scored 2+ touchdowns in ten contests during the 2019 season. Winston is a proven gunslinger, who is never afraid to attempt the explosive play or find a receiver deep to move the chains or score a touchdown. Consequently, Winston has the highest ceiling in the NFL and can get you 25+ points on any given day.

Unfortunately, Winston’s undaunted playing style is also the reason why he has a tendency to ruin some of his best performances. This season, Winston finished with the highest interception percentage in the league and was the first quarterback in more than 30 years to throw for 30+ interceptions during a season. Jameis’ knack for throwing interceptions is mainly due to the fact that he isn’t afraid to test double coverage or try to thread the needle into tight coverage.

As it pertains to 2020, most of Winston’s fantasy outlook is dependent upon a multitude of different factors. For starters, it’s uncertain whether Bruce Arians and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will choose to re-sign Winston in the off-season. In fact, Arians refused to give Winston a positive assessment during a press conference in late December. The best option for Winston’s would be for him to remain in Tampa, where he would be a definite QB2, with a strong receiving corps and one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. However, his fantasy ceiling will take a dramatic hit and revert to QB3/4 status if he becomes a backup, a bridge QB, or deals with a problematic front office.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 5109 33 35 250 1 305.4 19.09
2020 4789 38 27 178 2 319.36 19.96

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 59, Auction Price ($200): $17

After all the concerns about his injury history, Carson Wentz was able to suit up in every game in the regular season. The former North Dakota State Bison also broke franchise records for the most passing yards by an Eagles quarterback after he threw for 4,039 yards, 27 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions. He also landed in the top ten for fantasy points this year, after accumulating 275.9 fantasy points, with an average of 17.2 points per game.

The most impressive accomplishment surrounding Wentz’s year is that he was able to throw 4,000+ yards without having a wide receiver produce 500+ yards. Outstandingly, Wentz was able to have an extremely productive season even though the Philadelphia Eagles had severe injuries suffered by Desean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Nelson Agholor. Nevertheless, Wentz was still able to average 321.8 passing yards while also tossing 10 TDs and 1 interception during his final five games.

There are three concerning factors that prevent Wentz from being a QB1. For starters, Carson Wentz has struggled mightily with fumbles throughout his career and had the second most fumbles in the NFL last season. Second, the Eagles often go through tough stretches where their play-calling leads to significant periods of lackluster passing production. For example, Wentz averaged 11.5 fantasy points between Weeks 7 and 12, which indicates that he has a relatively lower floor than most QB1s/QB2s.

However, the most troubling aspect associated with Wentz pertains to his durability. Wentz has suffered a significant injury in three straight years, and any fantasy owner should pair him with a quality complement at the quarterback position. Nevertheless, Wentz is still a great QB2/3 to select during the fourth or fifth rounds.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4039 27 14 1 243 275.86 17.24
2020 4226 31 14 203 4 309.34 19.33

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

ADP: 60, Auction Price ($200): $16

If Drew Brees had played in every game this season, he would’ve probably been a top-five fantasy quarterback. Despite missing six games this year, Brees threw for 2,979 yards, 27 touchdowns, and accumulated 224.8 fantasy points. He also averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game, along with 270.8 passing yards per game this season.

As it pertains to advanced analytics, Drew Brees is still effectively in his prime. He had the third-best QBR, second-best passer rating, second-highest DYAR, and the highest DVOA. These stats are promising because even at his old age, Brees is a borderline QB2 option. If you can manage to draft Brees in the fifth round, it would incredibly benefit your team.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 2979 27 5 -4 1 224.8 20.44
2020 4450 32 8 17 2 303.7 18.98

QB3 Tier

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 64, Auction Price ($200): $15

This season, Ryan Tannehill had one of the best bounce-back seasons in the NFL and was the most prominent fantasy sleeper. In fact, Tannehill ranked in the top ten for average fantasy points per game amongst quarterbacks. In 11 games and ten starts as the Titans starter, Tannehill threw for 2,742 yards, 22 TDs, completed over 70% of his passes, and accumulated 224.2 fantasy points. As a result, he projects to be a solid QB3 with potential QB1 upside in deeper leagues.

This season, Ryan Tannehill has greatly improved as a passer with career highs in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating. As a result of his improvement, the Titans are likely to either re-sign or franchise tag him in 2020. The biggest issue with Tannehill is that his 2019 sample size is extremely small, and thus his great season isn’t enough to validate him as a top tier passer. Nevertheless, Tannehill’s advanced analytics, such as the fact that he ranked in the top five for DVOA, indicates that his fantasy production wasn’t a fluke either.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 2742 22 9 185 4 224.2 18.68
2020 4345 32 14 102 2 296 18.5

Joe Burrow, TBD

ADP: 70, Auction Price ($200): $13
Joe Burrow is coming off one of the most accurate passing seasons in college football history. As of January 7th, 2020, Burrow has thrown for 5,208, completed 74.4% of his passes, and posted a 55:6 TD: INT ratio. As a result, he is projected to be the number one pick in the 2020 NFL draft and become the Cincinnati Bengals franchise quarterback.

If Burrow becomes the Bengals’ starter, he will enjoy having a receiving corps that includes Tyler Boyd. Besides Boyd, Burrow would be able to work with Auden Tate, John Ross, and Alex Erickson, who have all shown flashes of success. Plus, his offensive line is likely to have a bounce-back season once players like Jonah Williams recover from injuries. Consequently, Burrow looks to enter the league as a solid QB3 option with elite upside.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020 3518 22 10 616 3 288.33 18.02

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

ADP: 74, Auction Price ($200): $11
Jared Goff
This season, Jared Goff was a fairly dependable quarterback who scored 247.5 fantasy points. The fourth-year veteran ranked third in the league for passing yardage with 4,638 yards in 16 games. He also recorded 22 passing touchdowns while adding two scores on the ground. However, he also threw a career-high 16 interceptions and fumbled ten times as the Rams’ signal-caller in 2019. Goff’s interception total is troubling because he has consistently seen a yearly increase in interceptions throughout his four-year career.

For the most part, Goff’s fantasy production was heavily dependent on the matchups he faced. For instance, Goff excelled against shoddy defenses like the Bengals and Cardinals, while struggling profusely against units like the Steelers and 49ers. Therefore, 2020 fantasy owners shouldn’t rely on Goff when he plays against domineering defenses.

Part of Goff’s struggles can also be attributed to his offensive line’s regression this season (fourth-worst pass blocking grade in the NFL). Jared Goff’s fantasy output was especially bad against teams that accumulate a lot of sacks and pressures. Therefore, he will also be dependent on the Rams fixing the offensive line if he hopes of being a solid QB3 in fantasy.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4638 22 21 40 2 247.5 15.47
2020 4689 30 19 79 1 283.46 17.72

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 79, Auction Price ($200): $10
Dak Prescott
Despite the Dallas Cowboys’ disappointing team record this season, their signal-caller, Dak Prescott, had one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Prescott finished the year with 4,902 passing yards, a 65.1 % completion percentage, 30 TDs, and only eleven interceptions. From a fantasy standpoint, Dak generated 337.78 fantasy points and was able to play in all 16 games. After being given the nickname “Dink-And-Dak” for his tendency to check the ball down, Dak ranked in the top five for yards/throw with 8.2 yards per attempt.

Heading into the 2020 season, Dak’s success will be dependent on wideout Amari Cooper. Since the Cowboys traded for Cooper in week nine of the 2018 season, Dak Prescott has been extremely productive, with only one game with less than 200 passing yards. If the Cowboys let Cooper walk in free agency, they will need to find another wide receiver to complement Michael Gallup on the outside.

Dak will also need to be either franchise tagged or signed to a long term deal before he can remain the Cowboys’ franchise quarterback. Given how much confidence Cowboys owner, Jerry Jones has in Prescott, it’s likely that Jones will retain Prescott. This means that Prescott’s floor will likely be a low-end QB2/decent QB3 since he is surrounded by an abundance of receiving weapons. Although, Prescott’s ceiling is unlikely to be a QB1 since Mike McCarthy will probably fail to create a creative scheme that will maximize his skill set.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4902 30 13 277 3 337.8 21.11
2020 4103 22 10 212 4 277.32 17.33

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

ADP: 84, Auction Price ($200): $9
baker mayfield
Heading into the 2020 season, Baker Mayfield was supposed to have one of the best fantasy seasons amongst all quarterbacks. After being surrounded by Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and David Njoku, Mayfield was projected by lineups.com to throw for 4,000 yards and score 30 touchdowns. However, similar to the rest of the Cleveland Browns, Baker Mayfield had an underwhelming fantasy season. Mayfield finished with 3,827 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and a whopping 21 interceptions.

To say Mayfield’s fantasy season was disappointing is an understatement; as a whole, it was the most lackluster fantasy season amongst all quarterbacks. However, to blame Mayfield for this failure is completely unfair. For starters, the Browns’ offensive line was a subpar unit that ranked 17th in the NFL in terms of pass-blocking efficiency. Plus, his former head coach, Freddie Kitchens, failed to call creative plays that would benefit his quarterback.

Heading into 2020, Baker Mayfield’s fantasy ceiling will be dependent on whether the Cleveland Browns hire a good head coach and general manager. If the Browns can improve their play calling and offensive line, he will be primed for a bounce-back season as a QB2. Although if the Browns continue to be a dysfunctional team, his floor could be as low as QB4 status.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3827 22 23 141 3 229.2 14.32
2020 4287 30 19 87 2 274.18 17.14

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

ADP: 87, Auction Price ($200): $9

Similar to other dual-threat quarterbacks, Josh Allen has been one of the most productive fantasy QBs. Through 15 games this season, Allen was the third-most reliable quarterback, because he had 13 games with 15+ fantasy points. Surprisingly, Allen surpassed Lamar Jackson for the most rushing touchdowns scored by quarterbacks, after he ran for nine TDs in 2019. Additionally, Allen was third amongst all quarterbacks this season with 510 rushing yards.

Due to Josh Allen’s physical attributes and rushing skills, the Buffalo Bills fully committed to building their offense around the run. As a result, the Bills rushed for 128.4 rushing yards per game, which ranked in the top ten amongst all NFL teams. Additionally, the Bills finished with a top seven efficiency non-adjusted rushing rating, which indicates that they are successful at running the ball.

Even though Allen generates a high amount of rushing touchdowns, his lack of passing production is why he is unlikely to repeat his fantasy prominence. This season, Allen ranked 23rd in the NFL in terms of total passing yardage despite playing in every game. To make matters worse, Allen ranked in the bottom three for passing yards/game with 193.1 yards per game. Unless Allen rushes for 1,000+ yards similar to Lamar Jackson, he is a borderline QB3 with limited upside heading into 2020.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3089 20 13 510 9 288.6 18.04
2020 3234 24 18 466 6 271.96 16.99

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

ADP: 91, Auction Price ($200): $7

After being named as the starting quarterback in week three, Daniel Jones exhibited flashes of what’s to come in the foreseeable future. Between Weeks three and 17, Jones averaged approximately 18 points per game, along with three games scoring 30+ fantasy points. However, Jones’ season was plagued with inconsistency and volatility, as he also scored less than 12 points in five games during the 2019 season.

Surprisingly, Jones has a lot to look forward to next season. He has two great receivers with Darius Slayton and Golden Tate, a great tight end with Evan Engram, and an elite running back with Saquon Barkley, who has excellent receiving skills. As a result, he is a quality QB3 option with potential QB2 upside.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3072 24 23 279 2 215 13.44
2020 4069 28 21 187 3 269.46 16.84

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

ADP: 94, Auction Price ($200): $6

After suffering an elbow injury in Week two, Ben Roethlisberger was placed on injured reserve and missed the majority of the regular season. In his absence, Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph struggled profusely to lead the Steelers. Mason Rudolph finished in the bottom five amongst all qualifying quarterbacks in DYAR, DVOA, and QBR, and Hodges recorded a -121 DYAR along with a -22.0% DVOA. Consequently, it is abundantly clear that Pittsburgh will need to rely on Roethlisberger in 2020.

Fantasy owners should be cautious before they draft Big Ben too early. Since 2012, Ben Roethlisberger has only had two seasons in which he ranked in the top ten for fantasy quarterback production, and that was with Antonio Brown as his number one receiver. Heading into 2020, Big Ben will only have one wideout who has totaled 1,000+ receiving yardage in a season (Ju-Ju Smith Schuster). Therefore, he currently projects to be a QB3 option with possible QB2 upside.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 351 0 1 7 0 12.74 6.37
2020 4297 28 13 54 1 269.26 16.83

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

ADP: 96, Auction Price ($200): $5

Since taking over as the Green Bay Packers franchise quarterback, Aaron Rodgers has been one of the NFL’s best. At this point in his career, Rodgers is either creating, breaking or extending NFL records. He currently has the highest passer rating, the lowest interception percentage, and most consecutive passing attempts without an interception in league history. This season, Rodgers had an efficient season, in which he scored 278.4 fantasy points 4,002 passing yards, 26 TDs, and only four interceptions.

While Aaron Rodgers is undoubtedly one of the most talented quarterbacks ever to play football, he has witnessed a significant fantasy decline over his last four seasons. More specifically Rodgers has seen a consistently gradual decline in terms of fantasy production and rankings since 2017. Even though Matt Lafluer was supposed to elevate Rodgers to the next level, the Packers signal-caller is ranked 21st for QBR and had the second-lowest completion percentage of his career since becoming a starter.

In 2020, Aaron Rodgers will continue to witness regression as long as LaFleur is his head coach. While Matt LaFleur has been lauded for his connections with Sean McVay and Kyle Shannahan, he has only had two years of experience as a play-caller. In 2018, LaFleur coached Marcus Mariota to a lackluster season in which he threw for less than 3,000 yards, and held an 11:8 TD: INT ratio in 15 games. This season, the Packers saw actually saw a decrease in passing yards per game coupled with a stagnation in their points per game. Given that LaFleur’s offense has generated subpar production over the last two years, Rodgers is likely to be a QB3 option in 2020.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4002 26 8 183 1 278.38 17.39
2020 3562 30 9 150 1 265.48 16.59

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

ADP: 100, Auction Price ($200): $4

In what could be Tom Brady’s last season in New England, he had a pretty good year for his fantasy football owners. He threw for 4,057 yards, scored 24 TDs, and tallied 263.7 fantasy points. For most of the season, Brady was a fairly efficient quarterback who scored 15+ fantasy points in eight of his contests. However, he also showed that he has a lower floor than most quarterbacks after he failed to score more than 12 points in five games.

While Tom Brady still has another season in him, he is most certainly declining. Over the last three years, Brady has witnessed significant declines in DYAR, DVOA, and QBR. In fact, Brady’s 2019 rankings in DYAR, DVOA, and QBR were the lowest of his career since 2008, and will likely continue to decrease next season. This regression is important because these statistics indicate that Brady’s fantasy production is likely to stagnate or regress in 2020.

If Tom Brady is back in New England next season, he’ll need to be surrounded by a better receiving corps. More specifically, the Patriots will need to equip Brady with a quality tight end who can move the chains and get open down the field. However, if Brady and the Patriots are unable to reach an agreement, the Los Angeles Chargers are a team that is likely to entertain signing him. If they do, Brady would be a quality QB3 who would be surrounded by a tremendous receiving corps, including Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4057 24 8 34 3 263.7 16.48
2020 4002 27 7 25 1 262.58 16.41

QB4 Tier

Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars


After being selected in the sixth round of the NFL draft, Gardner Minshew was not on anyone’s radar to start this season. However, after his teammate, Nick Foles suffered a collarbone injury in Week one, Minshew was allowed to start. After Minshew was given the starting job, he instantly became a consistent and productive sleeper in Fantasy Football. Minshew finished the regular season with 3,271 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and 229.2 fantasy points.

Despite all of Minshew’s success in 2019, his head coach Doug Marrone has been reluctant to name him as the starter for the 2020 season. Consequently, it can be assumed that barring any off-season trade, Minshew and Foles will compete in the off-season and pre-season for the starting job. Given that Gardner developed a rapport with his receivers, especially D.J. Chark and Chris Conley, he would have QB3/4 status if he successfully becomes a starter.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3271 21 13 344 0 229.2 14.33
2020 4106 24 19 204 2 254.64 15.92

Drew Lock, Denver Broncos


This season, Broncos quarterback, Drew Lock, was given a chance to start in Week 13 and started in five games. After he was given the starting quarterback role, Lock threw for 1,020 yards, seven touchdowns, and completed 64.1% of his passes. Within his five starts, Lock scored 67 fantasy points and had an especially dominant performance on Week 14 against the Houston Texans.

Aside from his game against the Texans, Lock failed to score more than 13 points in four of his five starts. While it is way too early to accurately predict Lock’s 2020 fantasy projection, he has a lot to work with from his receiving corps. Having a full off-season with Courtland Sutton, Dae’Sean Hamilton, and Noah Fant will equip Lock with a moderately high fantasy season. Plus, Drew Lock’s combination of arm talent, arm strength, and modest mobility will help him drastically develop into an explosive passer. However, he has a QB4 designation for the time being.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 1020 7 4 72 0 68 13.6
2020 3882 28 18 104 1 247.68 15.48

Sam Darnold, New York Jets

sam darnold
This season, New York Jets quarterback, Sam Darnold, threw for 3,094 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. From a fantasy standpoint, Darnold’s 2019 fantasy football season was underwhelming, to say the least. Darnold missed Weeks two through five after he contracted mono, and struggled to bounce back until Week ten. Even though Darnold had a strong stretch as a fantasy sleeper between Weeks ten through 12, his fantasy production drastically fell, and he reverted to a QB4 option.

Through his two seasons in the NFL, Sam Darnold has only shown about six total games of flashy production to prove that he is a great franchise quarterback. Despite Jets’ head coach, Adam Gase, proclaiming that Darnold will have a big year next season, it has yet to be seen if Darnold’s potential will ever come to fruition for a full season. Gase’s statement is a big gamble given that Darnold ranked 32nd, 31st, and 28th, respectively for DYAR, DVOA, and QBR. However, if Darnold does make that leap, he’ll be a QB3 at best with a QB4 floor.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3024 19 16 62 2 189.2 11.82
2020 3917 25 18 104 2 243.48 15.22

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins
In 2019, Kirk Cousins was one of the most effective game-managers in the NFL. He was able to pass for 3,603 yards, hold a 69.1% completion rate, scored 26 touchdowns, and accumulate 244.4 fantasy points. For the most part, Cousins’ fantasy peak ranged from Weeks 5 through 11, when he averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game. Although late in the year during the Fantasy Football playoffs, Cousins’ was an ineffective fantasy QB, who averaged 12.3 points during Weeks 13 through 16.

Even though Kirk Cousins had the lowest passing yardage of his career since 2015, he had a bounceback season from an efficiency standpoint. In fact, he was able to put up the highest DYAR, DVOA, and QBR rankings of his career since 2016. Since the Vikings were also able to enjoy a playoff berth, they are likely to continue maximizing Cousins’ efficiency rather than his overall production. Especially considering that they had a lot of success as the second-most run-heavy team in the league, they will likely lean on their running game in 2020. Therefore, Kirk Cousins’ fantasy status is limited to a borderline QB3/4.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3,603 26 9 63 1 244.4 15.28
2020 3763 28 12 36 0 242.12 15.13

Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins

No rookie quarterback was inserted into a worse situation than Dwayne Haskins. He started the season with his former head coach, Jay Gruden, doing everything possible to not start Dwayne Haskins. Nevertheless, Haskins was still able to throw 1,365 yards, seven touchdowns, and showed some flashes of excellence.

Heading into 2020, there some upside for Haskins to work with. He has quality receiving talent but it is mainly limited to Terry McLaurin. However, his head coach, Ron Rivera, tends to run the ball heavily, therefore limiting Haskins’ ceiling to QB3/4 territory.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 1,365 7 9 101 0 76.7 8.52
2020 3657 26 18 154 2 241.68 15.11

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

derek carr
Despite missing the playoffs in 2019, Derek Carr had one of the best seasons of his career. Carr finished with career highs in passing yardage, completion percentage, and passer rating, while finishing with a 2:1+ TD: INT for the first time since 2016. Overall, Carr was a quality QB3 option, who generated 244.4 fantasy points.

According to heavy.com and raidersbeat.com, Derek Carr is slated to remain the Oakland Raiders starting quarterback in 2020. This makes sense, because his head coach Jon Gruden, orients his offense around a conservative scheme, that favors rushing the ball heavily. In fact, the Raiders opted to bolster their offensive line in the off-season, so that they could run the ball 44.19% of the time (eighth-highest percentage in the NFL).

Given that the Raiders also have Josh Jacobs, who is a tough running back who ranked in the top five for yards after contact, they are more likely to lean on his rushing production instead of Carr’s passing. Therefore, Carr is penciled to be a QB4, who should only be started in deeper leagues.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4054 21 11 82 2 244.4 15.28
2020 3857 23 10 48 1 237.08 14.82

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers


In his first full season as the San Francisco 49ers starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 3,978 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He also completed 69.1% of his passes while producing 247.3 fantasy points in 16 starts. As a whole, Garoppolo was an above-average fantasy quarterback, who scored 15.5 fantasy points per game.

The most significant aspect that defined Garoppolo’s 2019 fantasy season was inconsistency and volatility. Throughout the 2019 season, Garoppolo never had back-to-back games with 20+ fantasy points and only one instance of back-to-back 15+ points. The biggest reason behind Garoppolo’s fantasy limitation is because the 49ers are the third-most run-heavy team in the NFL, and opt to rush the ball on 49.21% of their plays. Given that they will most likely continue this trend into 2020, Jimmy G’s ceiling will be QB3 status with a QB4 floor.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3978 27 18 62 1 247.3 15.47
2020 3780 24 15 70 2 236.2 14.76

Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears


Chicago Bears general manager, Ryan Pace, has made it clear that he will retain Mitch Trubisky in 2020. Throughout his tenure in the NFL, Trubisky has shown that he has one of the lowest fantasy ceilings in the NFL. Trubisky has ranked as a bottom-six fantasy quarterback in two of his last six years. In fact, his fantasy ceiling came in 2018, when he finished as the 15th-best fantasy quarterback in the NFL.

Through his three seasons as an NFL starter, he has exhibited no evidence that he will ever be a quality quarterback. In fact, he has neither the football IQ nor arm talent to excel as an NFL QB. Even with a creative play-caller like Matt Nagy as his head coach, Trubisky had the third-lowest QBR and fifth-worst DVOA and DYAR. As a result, he should be undrafted in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3138 17 12 193 2 202.8 12.68
2020 3401 16 12 387 3 232.74 14.55

Phillip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers

Phillip Rivers had the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL, with 4,615 yards in 2019. From a fantasy football standpoint, Rivers scored 235.5 fantasy points while averaging 14.7 points in 16 games. Unfortunately for Rivers, he struggled mightily to move the ball down the field and ranked in the bottom three for interceptions in 2019. In fact, Rivers’ 20 picks were tied for the second-most throughout his NFL career.

For most NFL fans and analysts, Rivers’ 2019 campaign marked the beginning of his decline. Despite being surrounded by Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry, Rivers had the worst fantasy season of his career since 2012, and the fourth-worst fantasy season of his career since becoming a starter. Therefore the Chargers could look to part ways with Rivers in 2020. Although even if Rivers does land on another football team, there is a serious question as to whether he can even reach QB3 status.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 4615 23 23 29 0 235.5 14.72
2020 4068 21 21 17 0 206.42 12.90

Rookie/UnRosterable Tier

Tua Tagovailoa, TBD

According to CBS, Tua Tagovailoa is projected to be selected by the Miami Dolphins in the 2020 NFL draft. In his three seasons as the quarterback of the Alabama Crimson Tide, Tua has thrown a whopping 87 touchdowns, along with just 11 interceptions. During his tenure as the Crimson Tide’s signal-caller, Tagovailoa has displayed impeccable arm talent and mobility that should assist him in Fantasy Football.

If Tua Tagovailoa becomes the quarterback of the Miami Dolphins, he will have a lot of quality receivers to work with. For instance, DeVante Parker finished with the fifth-most receiving yardage in the NFL and proved that he is a quality wideout. Besides Parker, Tagovailoa will be able to work with Mike Gesicki, who flashed receiving production late in the season. However, the biggest indication that Tua would be a great quarterback for Miami is that even Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to play well with the Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa could also be drafted by the Chargers or Colts if either of those teams moves up in the first round to take a quarterback. While both of these destinations would be even better than the Dolphins, Tua fares to be a QB3 option with possible QB4 downside.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020 2206 14 8 458 3 192.04 12.00

Justin Herbert, TBD

Justin Herbert is the third-best quarterback prospect in college football. Last season he threw for 3,471 yards, 32 Touchdowns, 6 Interceptions. Even though the NFL Draft is months away from now, many analysts believe that Herbert will be selected in the first round. As of right now, Herbert could be selected by the Lions, Chargers, Colts or Patriots, which would all be great destinations for him to watch and learn the game.

If Herbert has to learn behind a quarterback like Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford or Jacoby Brissett, his fantasy ceiling will obviously be limited to a week-by-week QB. However, if Herbert is on the right team and gets an opportunity, I believe that his fantasy season will be fairly similar to Daniel Jones’.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020 1718 9 8 127 1 109.42 6.82

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins


During the 2019 season, Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to throw for 3,529 yards, while posting a 20:13 TD: INT ratio. This season, Fitzpatrick was able to play in 15 games and showed some flashes as the Dolphins de facto starting signal-caller. In fact, Ryan Fitzpatrick was one of the best late-season quarterbacks to add as a fantasy sleeper. During the last six weeks of the season, Fitzmagic averaged 23.45 and added a significant boost during the Fantasy Football playoffs.

Even though Fitzpatrick was clutch for fantasy owners, everyone should expect him to be a bridge QB at best for whoever the Dolphins choose to draft in April. As a result, he is a QB4, who should only be added by desperate owners dealing with an injury whenever Fitzpatrick is given a starting role.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3529 20 23 243 4 241.5 21.95
2020 1719 8 6 102 1 109.42 6.84

Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts


Jacoby Brissett threw for 2,942 yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions in 2019. Brissett finished his fantasy season with 217.7 fantasy points and an average of 14.5 points per game. For the most part, Brissett’s fantasy production is a tale of two halves. During his first six games of the season, Jacoby Brissett played pretty well for fantasy owners, by averaging 19.1 points per game. However, after Week seven, Brissett’s fantasy production fell off a cliff, and his average decreased to 11.5 points per game.

Heading into 2020, Indianapolis Colts general manager, Chris Ballard, has indicated that he has made no determination on whether the Colts will move on from Jacoby. If he were to move on from Brissett, then Jacoby would most likely become a bridge/backup quarterback with minimal fantasy upside. Although, if the Colts retain Brissett, he would be a QB4 who should only be started in the deepest of leagues.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 2942 18 11 228 4 217.7 13.61
2020 987 5 2 87 1 70.18 4.39

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals


In 2019, Andy Dalton threw for 3,494 yards, completed 59.5% of his passes, and posted a 16:14 TD:INT ratio. Dalton also added four rushing touchdowns along with four lost fumbles in what equated to 203.7 fantasy points on the year. With the 2020 season looming, Andy Dalton’s tenure as the Cincinnati Bengals starting quarterback appears to be drawing to an end.

Dalton is almost certainly going to be replaced by Joe Burrow after the 2020 season, and his only playing time will come as a bridge quarterback for an NFL team. Therefore, he is at most a QB4, who will only see playing time due to an injury or a rookie quarterback being unprepared.

Year Pass Yds Pass TDs TO Rush Yds Rush TDs Fantasy Points FPTS/G
2019 3494 16 18 73 4 202.66 16.6
2020 783 3 4 11 0 42.42 2.65
  
I am a junior at Morehouse College, majoring in economics. I have experience as a data analyst at Pro Football Focus and as a football scouting intern at Fanteractive.com. I enjoy scouting and analyzing NCAAF and NFL games, especially quarterback and running back play.

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