Weird things happen in Laramie, however, because of the altitude and other Wyoming-related football issues. For example, Wyoming snuck out a win over Tulsa as 6.5-point underdogs in Week 1.
However, beating the Falcons is a whole different story. Do the Falcons have a chance?
Let’s break it down. Read on for our Air Force Falcons vs Wyoming Cowboys odds, picks, and predictions.
Air Force Falcons vs Wyoming Cowboys
The sharp money has actually come in on Wyoming, as they’ve been bet down from a 17-point favorite to under 15 at some books. I’m not sure why, as Air Force has lit up its opposition.
But then again, Wyoming has looked solid in the early going and do have a huge home-field advantage.
Plus, Air Force’s triple-option offense means the clock is going to run, and a lower-scoring game means a big underdog covers more often. That’s why the Under has taken the sharp money, moving down.
The Under and the underdog are likely the sharp plays in this game.
Air Force Falcons vs Wyoming Cowboys Prediction & Pick
The loss to Illinois was more expected by Wyoming. The Pokes only returned eight starters and none of the important ones. Wyoming is one of the least experienced teams in college football.
The bounce-back win against Tulsa was unexpected. However, I was very low on Tulsa entering the season and still am. I’m not putting too much stock in that win.
The key for Wyoming is on the ground. So far this season, Wyoming has rushed at a top-50 rate and opponents have rushed against Wyoming at a top-30 rate. The Cowboys have been ineffective at either.
Through two games, Air Force leads the league in Rushing Play Predicted Points Added and is 10th in Standard Downs Predicted Points Added. The Falcons are going to bowl over Wyoming behind eight returning offensive linemen, returning quarterback Haaziq Daniels, and over 80% of their rushing attack from last season.
However, Air Force has been surprisingly ineffective from a Success Rate perspective. Plus, they only managed 3.3 yards per carry playing Wyoming last season. Although that was a better Wyoming team, this game is being played in Laramie instead of Colorado Springs.
This game is going to be slow-paced and I think Wyoming has a good chance of covering considering home-field advantage. I loved the Cowboys at +17.5 and the under at 50, but the line movement has sucked the value away.
If you must bet this game, take the under and the underdog. But I’ll pass given the current numbers. Do not touch if the spread gets below 14 or the under drops below 45.
Leans: Wyoming +14.5 and Under 46.5
Air Force Falcons vs Wyoming Cowboys Key Matchups
Key Matchup: Air Force vs The Elevation
The Wyoming campus sits at over 7,000 feet of elevation. Air Force runs a triple-option attack that tries to pound the ball 50 times per game. The higher elevation games must affect that style of play most, right?
Well, Air Force has failed to cover in Laramie in five straight games, the last time coming in September of 2008.
These are obviously very different teams, but Air Force has been road favorites in four of those games.
So, will history repeat itself? Or will Air Force roll?