Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks Preview (11/5/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

Saturday night features another Atlantic Division showdown between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. In this matchup preview, I review my prediction for the bout, the projected starting lineups, current odds for the popular bets, and updated injury reports.

Boston Celtics Vs. New York Knicks Betting Odds

Boston is a 3.5-point road favorite against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. New York has an entirely healthy roster and shouldn’t miss anyone unless it sits someone on the second night of a back-to-back; it doesn’t hurt to keep up with the injury reports, even when it seems everyone is healthy! The Celtics will be without Robert Williams III and Danilo Gallinari, and Jaylen Brown is questionable since he has been battling a non-Covid illness.

Boston Celtics Vs. New York Knicks Prediction

Boston’s defense has started the 2022-23 regular season on a multi-week “NBA Finals hangover.” The C’s boasted the league’s best defense last season and displayed their defensive versatility and switchability all the way to the Finals. This season, things have not been going swimmingly; they rank 21st in opponent 3P% (three-point percentage), 18th in defensive rating, 18th in opponent points per game, and 20th in defensive efficiency.

Meanwhile, New York has been plagued with many of the same offensive issues that have kept it from being a true contender for the better part of the last ten years. The Knicks added Jalen Brunson in the off-season for roughly $100 million, but he alone was never going to fix their offensive deficiencies. The bottom line is this: Tom Thibodeau-coached teams are not usually offensively adept. Still, the effort that the Knicks have played with on the defensive end is very promising for the future, especially if they can figure out how to get a primary scorer in New York.

The Celtics may not look as dominant as last season, but they are still a very solid team. Their only losses have come to Cleveland (twice), a true title contender with the addition of Donovan Mitchell, and Chicago on the road. Boston should take care of New York in MSG; my only concern is whether or not the C’s can keep the Knicks off the offensive glass. Regardless, I’ll stick with the Celtics against the spread.

Betting Trends

• Boston is 1-3 ATS on the road in 2022-23
• New York is 2-2 ATS at home in 2022-23

Key Matchups

The key matchup in this Atlantic Division battle is between the Celtics’ defensive rebounding efforts and the Knicks’ offensive rebounding talent. Below, I take a deep dive into my analysis of this matchup between the two frontcourts and assign an advantage to one of them, so check it out!

Celtics’ Defensive Rebounding vs. Knicks’ Offensive Rebounding

New York may not have the league’s most physically imposing center (Mitchell Robinson). Still, he is a gnat on the offensive glass and helps the Knicks rank second in offensive rebounding percentage through the first ten percent of the season.

Without Robert Williams, the Celtics have been deploying smaller lineups, which has not helped them in any facet of the game. It would be logical to think that by sacrificing size, they would at least be able to score more by having another guard in the starting lineup; however, that hasn’t really happened.

Boston shouldn’t get crushed on the glass, but I expect Robinson’s presence to be bothersome for this Celtics team; it will take a team rebounding effort for this not to be an issue. For now, I’m giving the advantage to New York. Advantage: Knicks’ Offensive Rebounding.

Boston Celtics Starting Lineups

PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Derrick White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford

New York Knicks Starting Lineup

PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: Evan Fournier
SF: R.J. Barrett
PF: Julius Randle
C: Mitchell Robinson

Key Injuries

Boston Celtics Injuries: Robert Williams III (Out), Danilo Gallinari (Out)

New York Knicks Injuries: None