MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, July 7, 2026
We got shut out on Monday, as Austin Riley, Isaac Paredes, and Manny Machado each failed to hit home runs. Let’s try to get back on track with the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Riley Greene, Willson Contreras, and Kyle Tucker. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 59-228 (+0.72 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, July 7
Riley Greene Home Run Odds
Riley Greene is currently slashing .292/.380/.474 with 13 home runs in 376 plate appearances. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 30.7% to 26.9% while maintaining an excellent 14.1% barrel rate.
In the last seven days, Greene has been generating a ton of hard contact, as highlighted by a .530 xwOBA, which ranks 6th in MLB during this stretch. We’ve seen Greene homer four times in the last five games, including one in each of his last two. Simply put, this is a power hitter who has found his groove at the plate.
Up next is a matchup against Athletics’ right-hander J.T. Ginn, who has been much worse vs. lefties like Greene (.334 wOBA) compared to righties (.233 wOBA). Ginn has allowed one home run in each of his last two starts.
Considering these factors, we’ll go with Greene to hit No. 14 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Willson Contreras Home Run Odds
Willson Contreras is currently slashing .284/.378/.542 with 20 home runs in 357 plate appearances. He’s loving life in Boston, as he’s already only four home runs away from his previous career-high. You have to love the 14.1% barrel rate.
In the last seven days, Contreras has a .507 xwOBA, which ranks 7th in MLB. He’s homered in each of his last two games, so he’s completely locked in at the plate right now.
Contreras is a lefty-masher, putting up a 159 wRC+ against them this season. He’ll get one tonight in White Sox southpaw Noah Schultz, who has a 5.47 xERA and a 1.05 HR/9 on the year.
With how hot Contreras has been at the plate, it’s a good time to ride with him in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Kyle Tucker Home Run Odds
Kyle Tucker is currently slashing .252/.353/.387 with seven home runs in 363 plate appearances. It’s been a disappointing first year with the Dodgers for Tucker. However, we’re starting to see encouraging signs at the plate.
In the last seven days, Tucker has a .450 xwOBA, which ranks 14th in MLB. During this stretch, he has three multi-hit games. He just hasn’t gotten hot in the power department yet, but there’s enough of a track record to trust that he’ll eventually get going.
This is a good spot to do so, as he’s going up against Rockies’ right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who has a 5.59 xERA and a 1.36 HR/9 this season. This is a pitcher who has been crushed by lefties like Tucker, allowing a .448 wOBA.
It’s the ideal spot for Tucker to hit his eighth homer of the year, so we’ll ride with him here. Risk 0.1 units.
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