Colorado Avalanche vs St. Louis Blues (5/21/22) Betting Odds, Prediction, Line Combination, Starting Goalies
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While the Colorado Avalanche looked like an unstoppable force, the St. Louis Blues have played valiantly in this series.
The Blues even dominated during Wednesday’s 4-1 demolition. Money Puck put the post-game win expectancy at 80.2% for the Blues, as Nathan McKinnon and the potent Avalanche offense were shut down by Jordan Binnington.
Binnington has been legendary in this series. He’s performing just as well as he did during the Blues title run four years ago. That’s a good sign for a St. Louis team that is a heavy underdog and looking to make a deep run.
But, will Colorado bounce back in this one?
Let’s dive into the betting odds and my prediction for this Game 3 matchup in St. Louis.
Colorado Avalanche vs St. Louis Blues Betting Odds
The Blues are still moderate underdogs across the market, catching over +150 at some books. While that’s slightly surprising after the first few games, this should be the norm for the rest of Colorado’s playoff run.
The Avalanche are still the favorites to take home the Cup in 2022, but they must overcome their mistakes and beat a scrappy Blues team.
The total is sitting firm at 6.5, and it’s interesting that both games in the series have gone under.
Colorado Avalanche Analysis
Even after Wednesday’s debacle, Colorado still has the highest Expected Goal Percentage (62.17%) of any team in the playoffs. Their 10.02 Expected Goal Differential only trails Pittsburgh during this run, although the Penguins are now out of the playoffs after an epic collapse.
Nathan McKinnon has been the leader of the team all season and now leads the team in Expected Goals (4.7) this playoff run – that’s good for fourth among all playoff players. He’s only recorded eight total points through the run, but he’s been a positive influence on the team at large.
And, McKinnon is still getting the necessary shots up. His luck will turn.
Darcy Kuemper has been pretty average. He’s posted 0.6 Goals Saved Above Expected so far these playoffs, so the defense could be helping him out a bit more.
In the end, Colorado needs to keep pouring in the goals. The offense will carry this team to a cup, not Keumper.
St. Louis Blues Analysis
It’s hard to overstate just how excellent the Game 2 win was for St. Louis.
They went into Colorado’s house and dominated them. Let’s start with this image, which shows just how much the Blues’ stars outplayed the Avalanche’s:
Image credit: Money Puck
But let’s dig a little deeper into the stat line.
St. Louis out-shot Colorado 32-to-31. They both converted one out of two power plays. But St. Louis dominated in the face-off circle, winning 60.7% of the opportunities with the numbers sitting at 37-to-24. They didn’t allow Colorado – who is a great possession team – to have extra possessions.
Plus, St. Louis blocked 18 shots while Colorado just blocked five. It was a defensive masterpiece.
Not that Binnington needs it. Binnington is fourth during the playoffs this year in Goals Saved Above Expected (4.6) and is second in Save Percentage on Unblocked Shots (.974) – the latter stat trails only Jake Oettinger, who is now out of the playoffs.
Jordan Binnington's playoff numbers since taking over and starting Game 4 of the first round: 4-1, 1.75 GAA and .948 save percentage. He's stopped 163 of 172 shots in the postseason. #stlblues
— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) May 20, 2022
David Perron has 11 points this postseason run and 5.1 Expected Goals, with the latter stat leading all players still alive this postseason. He was the Blues’ star during the regular season and is currently playing like the best player on a potential championship team.
Game 1 was won by the right team, as Colorado dominated that game from start to finish. But the Blues made the right adjustments and deserved that Game 2 win.
Now, can they hold home ice?
Colorado Avalanche vs St. Louis Blues Picks & Prediction
My pick: Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (+150 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
I’m banking on a huge bounce-back game for Colorado. I’m going to use a bit of the zig-zag technique here, as this could be a back and forth series.
Remember, the Avalanche won 65% of the faceoffs and out-shot the Blues 54-to-25 in the Game 1 win. Colorado can easily hang with St. Louis, and the Avalanche just need to make the right adjustments back.
I’ll take the spread because I think MacKinnon and co. are going to pour in the goals in this Game 3 in St. Louis.
Colorado Avalanche vs St. Louis Blues Starting Goalies & Line Combination
