The Padres were staring down the nightmare scenario of going to Philadelphia down 2-0, but they weren’t intimidated in Game 2. San Diego rallied from an early deficit for a comfortable win, setting up a crucial Game 3 on Friday. Joe Musgrove is set to take the hill for the Padres, while Ranger Suarez will start for the Phillies. Who will have the advantage heading into Game 4?
Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Friday night’s matchup at Citizens Bank Park.
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds
The Padres are slight road favorites at -116, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs.
It’s notable that the Padres are favored on the road after the Phillies clearly thrived on the energy of the crowd in the NLDS, but the line is so narrow (Phillies are -102 on the moneyline) that this is essentially a toss-up. San Diego should finally have the pitching advantage with Joe Musgrove on the mound, and taking a break from the Phillies’ aces should be helpful.
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Prediction
My pick: Padres Moneyline (-116)
It’s tough to bet against the Phillies in front of what promises to be a raucous crowd, but the Padres have proven they’re not easily rattled. This is a San Diego team that won a decisive Game 3 at Citi Field, split at Dodger Stadium in the NLDS, and has overcome two significant deficits in its last three games.
Joe Musgrove should respond well to the energy of the crowd and deliver against a Phillies lineup that needs more well-rounded production.
San Diego Padres Starting Lineup
LF J. Profar S
RF J. Soto L
3B M. Machado R
DH J. Bell S
2B J. Cronenworth L
1B W. Myers R
SS H. Kim R
CF T. Grisham L
C A. Nola R
San Diego Padres vs. Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez wasn’t nearly as electric as he was in his breakout 2021 season, but he’s been solid for the Phillies as a mid-rotation arm behind the two aces. Suarez posted a 3.65 ERA across 29 starts this season, with a 3.87 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, and a 7.5 K/9 rate.
Hits and walks were both up considerably this season for Suarez. He’s fortunate to be starting at home, where baserunners for the Padres won’t get the crowd energized, but with the way San Diego has been producing timely hits, it’s a potential issue.
Suarez was serviceable in a short outing in Game 1 of the NLDS. I’m wondering whether the long layoff will affect him – this start comes 10 days after that one. Though he’s lasted seven innings on occasion, Suarez isn’t usually a pitcher who gives the Phillies serious length. The bullpen will be a factor in this game.
The Padres’ offense has looked like the deep, talented lineup we all expected in recent games. A dominant outing by Zack Wheeler aside, rallies and timely hits have become routine for the Padres. Manny Machado looks terrific right now and will be someone Suarez might have to work around, while Juan Soto is also starting to square up the ball. This lineup can be hit-or-miss, but Suarez is the type of pitcher it can get to.
Philadelphia Phillies Starting Lineup
LF K. Schwarber L
1B R. Hoskins R
C J. Realmuto R
DH B. Harper L
RF N. Castellanos R
3B A. Bohm R
CF B. Marsh L
2B J. Segura R
SS B. Stott L
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Joe Musgrove
Joe Musgrove was dominant in his first postseason start, allowing one hit to eliminate the Mets, and he did his job against the Dodgers with 2 ER over 6 IP. Musgrove posted a 2.93 ERA over 30 starts (181 IP) in the regular season, with a 3.59 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, and 9.1 K/9 rate. Musgrove has terrific control and has generated plenty of strikeouts over the last three seasons. Home runs have been an issue at times – he allowed 22 this season – but it hasn’t popped up yet in October.
It’s possible (if not likely) the Phillies change that and hit one out in this game. With home-field advantage and a Phillies lineup loaded with power threats at the top, it isn’t likely we see a shutdown performance, but Musgrove has done nothing but pitch well in tough environments this month.
The Phillies desperately need Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins to start hitting consistently. Both have had one singular moment in this postseason – Schwarber hit a ball in Game 1 that still hasn’t landed yet – but the lineup can’t rely on Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto to do it all.
The Phillies likely need some consistent production out of Schwarber and Hoskins if they want to win three more games in this series, and they’ll especially need it in these two upcoming games without Wheeler or Nola pitching.