Utah State Vs. Oregon State Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/18/21)

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl: Utah State Vs. Oregon State

In the first iteration of the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl, we will see two solid programs face off at SoFi Stadium, one of the best stadiums in the NFL. The Mountain West has had an excellent season that includes a 0.500 record against Pac-12 opponents and is sending eight teams to bowl games, the fourth-most among FBS conferences. In Blake Anderson’s first year as Utah State’s head coach, he has turned the program around in a hurry with the team’s first ten-win season since 2018. Oregon State was not expected to succeed this season, but a surprise bowl bid has included upset wins over Arizona State, USC, and eventual Pac-12 champion Utah. These two over-performing teams will be looking to continue their success in this game.

Utah State Vs. Oregon State Betting Odds

Utah State Aggies Betting Odds

The Aggies have been one of the most fun teams in the country to watch this season, so if you haven’t seen them play much, you’re in for a treat on Saturday. Logan Bonner has had an excellent season with 3,554 passing yards, 36 touchdowns. For context, that’s more passing yards and touchdowns than Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, and Malik Willis, all potential first-round NFL draft picks. In his first season with the program, Bonner has put together excellent production, and his 318 passing yards and four touchdowns in the final game of the season against San Diego State, a tough defense, had me very impressed.

Deven Thompkins is the team’s leading receiver with 96 catches for 1,589 yards and nine touchdowns, and he was one of ten semifinalists for the Fred Biletnikoff Award for the best wide receiver in the country. Thompkins managed just 69 catches over his first three years in college, so this breakthrough season has been a surprise for the senior. Outside of Thompkins, Brandon Bowling and Derek Wright both have over 750 receiving yards and a combined 20 touchdowns. Each could make a significant impact in this game.

Utah State’s defense is not nearly as memorable as its offense, but they have been explosive in the front seven and are tied with Alabama with eight tackles for loss per game, the third-most in the country. Nick Henniger, Justin Rice, Marcus Moore, and Byron Vaughns have 11+ tackles for loss this season. However, Utah State has been vulnerable against the run at times this season, and they allowed Wyoming to run for 362 yards earlier in the year. Savon Scarer, the Aggies’ explosive kick returner, was named to the All-Mountain West Second Team. He has averaged 24.2 yards per return and has run back a kick for a touchdown – watch out for him to make a significant impact on special teams.

Oregon State Beavers Betting Odds

While not nearly as impressive as Logan Bonner, Chance Nolan has had a solid season in his own right in his first year as the team’s starter. Nolan’s 308 passing yards and two touchdowns against Oregon weren’t enough to deliver the Beavers a signature upset win. Still, it was impressive to see him produce at that high of a level against a top opponent. In upset wins over USC and Utah, Nolan completed over 73% of his passes, throwing four touchdowns against the Trojans. He’s not a stranger to stepping up in the most significant moments.

B.J. Baylor has been the big story for the offense with 1,259 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in his first season as the full-time starter, his fourth with the team. He could be the difference-maker against a vulnerable Utah State run defense. Trevon Bradford has 40 catches for 606 yards and five touchdowns, and he was named to PFF’s First-Team All Pac-12. Oregon State also boasts an excellent offensive line that could present problems for a Utah State defense that has struggled to generate much of a pass-rush this season.

Defensively, the Beavers don’t have a ton to write home about, although Alton Julian has stood out at safety and made PFF’s Second-Team All Pac-12. Oregon State has forced 13 interceptions, tied for 28th in the country, and their ability to force Logan Bonner to make mistakes will be a massive factor in this game. However, Oregon State ranks just 96th in Football Outsiders’ defensive FEI metric, and they’ve struggled to defend against the pass this season. The Beavers have allowed opponents to convert on third down at a 50.9% clip, the third-highest among FBS teams, which is a problem against Utah State, which converts on third down at the 24th-highest clip in the country.

Utah State vs. Oregon State Picks & Prediction

The Beavers should be fired up to play in their first bowl game since beating Boise State in the 2013 Hawaii Bowl, and this season has been a sign of good things to come for Jonathan Williams, the team’s former quarterback and current head coach. A difference in styles will likely define this game as Utah State will allow Logan Bonner to air out the offense and look to take advantage of a weak Oregon State secondary, while the Beavers’ key to success will be establishing the run with B.J. Baylor. Both of these teams have benefitted from excellent coaching jobs from relatively inexperienced coaches, and both programs are decisively on an upward trajectory. Ultimately, I believe a 7.5-point spread is too vast for what Utah State is capable of offensively, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bonner lead them to a big upset.

My Pick: Oregon State wins 34-31, Utah State covers, under 67.5 points