MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, June 27, 2026
It was another profitable night on Friday, as Junior Caminero hit a home run, making up for losses on Riley Greene and Jac Caglianone.
Today, we’re going with Rafael Devers, Hunter Goodman, and Jordan Walker. I like the matchup for each of these hitters, who all have 30+ home run power. Let’s make it three winning nights in a row.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 53-206 (+0.75 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, June 27
Rafael Devers Home Run Odds
Rafael Devers is slashing .236/.297/.433 with 12 home runs in 344 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has increased from 26.3% to 29.4%, while his walk rate has fallen from 15.4% to 7.8%. Even his barrel rate has plummeted, going from 16.0% to 10.2%. Needless to say, it’s been an abysmal start to the season.
However, we’re slowly starting to see signs of Devers getting on track. Since June 10th, he has four home runs in 13 games. That’s encouraging for tonight’s matchup, which is an exploitable one.
Devers will get to go against Braves’ right-hander Bryce Elder. Yes, Elder has a rock-solid 3.47 xERA, but he’s really struggled lately, allowing 14 earned runs over 10 innings in his last two outings. During this stretch, he’s given up three home runs. Elder has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB in this span.
With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on Devers taking advantage of Elder’s recent downturn and hitting No. 13 in this spot.
Hunter Goodman Home Run Odds
Hunter Goodman is slashing .240/.307/.510 with 22 home runs in 319 plate appearances, building off what was a breakout season in 2025.
The Rockies’ catcher is absolutely crushing the ball, as highlighted by a 16.2% barrel rate. He’s coming off a home run last night. Perhaps this is the start of a hot streak. I’m betting that he makes it two in a row.
It’s a good matchup vs. Twins’ right-hander Mike Paredes, who has a 4.63 xERA on the season. Paredes had a 1.48 HR/9 in the minors before getting called up, so he’s had issues with the long ball in the past.
Considering this spot, we’ll ride with Goodman to hit his 23rd homer of the year. Risk 0.1 units.
Jordan Walker Home Run Odds
Jordan Walker is slashing .290/.341/.518 with 18 home runs in 334 plate appearances. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 31.8% to 25.4% while improving his barrel rate from 10.9% to 13.4%.
While he hasn’t homered since June 13th, I like the spot against Marlins’ right-hander Ryan Gusto.
This is a pitcher who has a 5.77 xERA on the season. Hitters are generating a lot of hard contact against him, including an 11.5% barrel rate.
Someone on the Cardinals is likely to get to Gusto. With Walker being the best power hitter on the team, we’ll go with him as the one to take Gusto yard. Risk 0.1 units.
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