2026 NBA Finals MVP Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions & Market Analysis Entering Round 2
We’re through the first round of the NBA Playoffs and a couple of title contenders have already been bounced from the field. With the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics out, star players Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Nikola Jokic are off the board in the market for NBA Finals MVP and for conference MVP awards.
The market has mixed up but the top contenders are tied to the top teams with the shortest odds to win the NBA Championship in 2026. Reigning Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has -140 odds at most books to lead the market, followed by Victor Wembanyama at +430.
A slew of Eastern Conference stars are next on the board and every other candidate has odds of 10/1 or longer because the futures market has low confidence in any team other than the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs winning the title this year.
Here is a list of the leading NBA Finals MVP contenders.
2026 NBA Finals MVP Favorites
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
- Victor Wembanyama (SAO)
- Jalen Brunson (NYK)
- Cade Cunningham (DET)
- Donovan Mitchell (CLE)
- Jalen Williams (OKC)
- Luka Doncic (LAL)
- Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK)
- Chet Holmgren (OKC)
- Joel Embiid (PHI)
- Tyrese Maxey (PHI)
- James Harden (CLE)
- Anthony Edwards (MIN)
2026 NBA Finals MVP Odds & Analysis
As the presumptive repeat MVP of the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander looks poised to lead the Thunder back to the NBA Finals and potentially repeat as Finals MVP. The prolific scorer has been even more efficient this year and looked unstoppable during a first-round sweep of the Phoenix Suns.
Behind SGA, Wembanyama stands out as the other true game-changing talent on a team with a legitimate shot to win the championship. The Spurs (+420) title odds are nearly equivalent to the odds that Wemby wins Finals MVP.
New York Knicks futures have jumped up the odds boards after they dominated the Atlanta Hawks in the first round. With the Knicks (+135) favored to win the East, Jalen Brunson has moved up to third position in the NBA Finals market. Cade Cunningham (+1700) and the Detroit Pistons are second on odds boards to win the East.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Best Odds:
The Thunder looked dominant in the first round of the playoffs in each of the past two years before showing some flaws in the later rounds. It’s possible this is the peak of the market on SGA and Thunder futures, but that might not be the case if they can sweep a wounded Lakers squad in the second round. With Jalen Williams (hamstring) injured, it is highly unlikely another Thunder player wins Western Conference Finals MVP or Finals MVP over Shai if they repeat as champions.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Best Odds:
As long as Wembanyama is healthy, the Spurs have a shot to keep advancing. They went 4-1 against the Thunder this season and Wemby made a huge impact in each of those meetings by negating Chet Holmgren and disrupting SGA’s drives to the basket. The Defensive Player of the Year is also a monster on offense and he didn’t show any signs of shying away from the bright lights of the playoffs during a gentleman’s sweep of Portland in the first round.
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Best Odds:
Brunson won Clutch Player of the Year in the 2024-25 season and has been amazing in the playoffs with averages of 29.5 points and 6.4 assists over his past three runs with the Knicks. There are great defensive players around Brunson, and Karl-Anthony Towns has had his moments on offense, but when it comes down to winning time, the lefty point guard is the engine behind everything the Knicks want to do. If the Blue and Gold can navigate the rest of the Eastern Conference bracket and reach the Finals, Brunson will likely have the second-shortest odds to win Finals MVP ahead of that series.
Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Best Odds:
The Pistons sputtered out of the gates in the first round and Cunningham dealt with turnover issues against an aggressive defensive scheme. The 6-foot-6 point guard seemed to figure it out with 36.3 PPG over three straight wins to dispatch the Orlando Magic. Cunningham stands out as the clear-cut MVP of the Eastern Conference Finals or Finals if the Pistons are able to reach those heights. His long odds are more of a reflection of a lack of public confidence in Detroit’s chances to win multiple series.
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
Best Odds:
If the Pistons go down in the second round, it will be at the hands of Mitchell and the Cavs. This franchise has a reputation for struggling in the playoffs, as does his co-star James Harden, but Mitchell has been dynamic in the postseason with averages of 27.8 points, 5 rebounds, and 4.6 assists over 70 career playoff outings. The Toronto Raptors did an excellent job on Mitchell in the first round, but he could thrive against the Pistons.
2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP Odds & Analysis
Before their first-round collapse at the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers, the Celtics held both of the top candidates in this market with Tatum and Brown listed around +225 atop the board. Now Brunson, Cunningham, and Mitchell are the leaders with prices cut by about 80% relative to their longshot NBA Finals MVP odds.
However, if the Knicks received an award for team MVP in the first round, it might have gone to OG Anunoby or Karl-Anthony Towns, two players listed as longshots to win ECF MVP. Cunningham is the only viable candidate for the Pistons and James Harden (+2700) or Evan Mobley (+4000) seem unlikely to win any hardware over Mitchell.
The best values for ECF MVP could be Joel Embiid (+1000) or Tyrese Maxey (+1800). Embiid is a major injury risk and the 76ers probably won’t win the conference without him, so it makes sense to tie their fate to his status rather than betting Philly at 7/1 odds to win the East.
2026 Western Conference Finals MVP Odds & Analysis
The Thunder and Spurs are heavily expected to advance to the Western Conference Finals and books are listing every player besides SGA (-240) and Wemby (+260) as longshots to win MVP of that series.
Anthony Edwards (+6000) and Luka Doncic (+3000) are priced as longshots with their health status unknown heading into the second round. Edwards has a better chance of returning to give the Timberwolves a chance to upset the Spurs, and Minnesota would have a shot against OKC if Edwards is healthy in a WCF rematch.
Photo Credit: AP/Eric Gay
