2026 NFL Draft Round 1 Grades, Analysis & Betting Results

The first round of the 2026 NFL Draft is in the books, and while we truly need several years to grade these selections properly, we can offer a knee-jerk reaction based on perceived value. 

Below are my first-round grades for all 32 selections. 

2026 NFL Draft Round 1 Grades

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana)

This was the pick for months now, so it’s really no surprise. Sitting here at No. 1 overall, there’s no other player to take. Is Mendoza, as a prospect, better than last year’s No. 1 pick Cam Ward? Not exactly, but he brings a Matt Ryan-type of play and will bring stability to a position that the Raiders have struggled with almost the entire century. 

Grade: A
Odds: -200000

2. New York Jets: David Bailey (EDGE, Texas Tech)

I went back and forth on Bailey and Reese, but ultimately landed on Bailey. No, he doesn’t have the ceiling that Reese may have, but Bailey has been a productive pass rusher throughout his college career, including last year with Texas Tech, when he racked up 14.5 sacks. 

The Jets need production, and Bailey will provide that. 

Grade: A
Odds: +200

3. Arizona Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame)

Based on how long it took the Cardinals to pick, I’d be willing to bet they tried to trade down. If that’s the case and they didn’t get the compensation they felt was necessary, it’s hard to knock this pick. They have other needs, such as offensive line, but No. 3 was a bit too rich for that. The Cardinals have so many running backs, including James Conner, Trey Benson, and the newly signed Tyler Allgeier, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens there. Love is also the only running back in NFL history to get more than $50 million in guaranteed dollars. Is the value perfect? No, not really, but Love is my No. 1 player in this draft, so it’s hard to be negative. 

Grade: A
Odds: +100

4. Tennessee Titans: Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State)

I do believe Love would’ve been the pick if he were here, but since he wasn’t, the Titans moved to another offensive weapon for their young quarterback. This was a move they needed to make, and while Tate may not have the upside of Jordyn Tyson, he’ll bring a high floor thanks to his phenomenal route running and contested catch ability. 

Grade: A
Odds: +2500

5. New York Giants: Arvell Reese (EDGE, Ohio State)

I bet the Giants didn’t necessarily expect Reese to be on the board here, and neither was I. This was a slam dunk selection by them. Sure, they lost Dexter Lawrence, but now they have a collection of pass rushers, including Kayvon Thibodeaux (who could maybe be traded?), Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, and now Reese. 

He can play both off-ball linebacker and work more on his edge rushing. 

Grade: A
Odds: +1800

6. Kansas City Chiefs: Mansoor Delane (CB, LSU)

The Chiefs traded up with the Cleveland Browns to ensure they got the top cornerback in the draft in Delane. He can play in all sorts of schemes and can be a lockdown cornerback. 

They lost Trent McDuffie and Jaylon Watson in their secondary, so it made sense, but I would’ve maybe preferred a receiver or Rueben Bain Jr. here just slightly more. 

Grade: B+
Odds: +3000

7. Washington Commanders: Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State)

A receiver would’ve made sense here, too, but I knew that if Styles were available, Dan Quinn wouldn’t pass up on him. 

He’s an excellent athlete—we saw that at the combine—and he’s a tackling machine. 

Now, he gets to learn more from Bobby Wagner. 

Off-ball linebacker typically isn’t a valuable position, but Styles is a can’t-miss. 

Grade: A
Odds: +450

8. New Orleans Saints: Jordyn Tyson (WR, Arizona State)

Tyson is the most talented receiver in the draft, but given Chris Olave’s injury history, I’m a bit wary of this duo. I would’ve loved Lemon to pair with Olave, but if Tyson can stay healthy, he can play all over the field, run crisp routes, and is super quick. 

I like that the Saints added more weapons for their young quarterback. 

Grade: A-
Odds: +245

9. Cleveland Browns: Spencer Fano (OL, Utah)

The Browns likely would’ve taken Fano at No. 6, but instead, they traded down a few spots, picked up another top 75 pick and more, and got their guy anyway. The Browns did sign and trade for a bevy of offensive linemen, but Fano is extremely versatile and can play all five offensive line spots. He has experience at both right and left tackle. 

Hard to argue with this one. 

Grade: A-
Odds: +600

10. New York Giants: Francis Mauigoa (OT, Miami-Fl.)

It’s hard to argue with a team taking an offensive lineman, especially one like Mauigoa, who played in a lot of big games with Miami, but he’ll likely start as a guard, and he honestly may end up staying in that spot. 

There were other options on the board, like Caleb Downs to pair with Reese or Lemon. 

Not a bad pick by any means, but there were some other options I would’ve preferred. 

Grade: B
Odds: +650

11. Dallas Cowboys: Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State)

The Cowboys moved up a spot in exchange for No. 12 and two fifth-round picks and got one of the best players in the entire draft in Downs. He’ll be a plug-and-play high-level safety. He’s not afraid to cause havoc near the line of scrimmage and is excellent in coverage. 

An easy win for a defense that desperately needs talent. 

Grade: A+
Odds: +800

12. Miami Dolphins: Kadyn Proctor (OT, Alabama)

This one all depends on how you view Proctor. Some may think he’s a bit too slow to play tackle, but I think he can and will do it. He’s a hulking tackle that I believe is their future left tackle to protect Malik Willis for now, and their quarterback of the future, which could come in the 2027 NFL Draft. 

The Dolphins need a receiver, but if they believe Proctgor is their future left tackle, you cannot pass up on that. 

Grade: A
Odds: +1000

13. Los Angeles Rams: Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama)

Wow. I’m still in shock about this. Look, I like Simpson more than most, but this one is a bit of a head-scratcher in the short term. 

Sure, you want to be ready when Matthew Stafford retires, and maybe you won’t have a chance to draft a quarterback this highly again. Still, the Rams are on the verge of a Super Bowl run, and players like Lemon, Kenyon Sadiq, or even an offensive lineman would’ve made more of an impact. This could make more sense in the long term, but for the immediate “Stafford window,” I’m confused. 

Grade: B
Odds: +475

14. Baltimore Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane (OG, Penn State)

This is such a Ravens pick to make. Look, Ioane is going to be a Pro Bowl-caliber guard almost right away, but man, oh man, would I have liked Lemon or Sadiq here. 

It’s hard to argue with an incredibly competent, ready-made guard, but I would’ve loved a weapon for Lamar Jackson. 

Grade: B+
Odds: +180

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rueben Bain, Jr. (EDGE, Miami-Fl.)

This is a bit of a surprise, too, for Bain Jr. to drop all the way to No. 15. I know, I know, the arm length, but when you watch him, that didn’t impact his game. He’s an incredibly strong edge rusher that’ll be impactful immediately on this front with Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey, and David Walker.

I’ve been consistently mocking them, Ioane or Sadiq, but I also never expected Bain Jr. to be here. 

Grade: A
Odds: +1800

16. New York Jets: Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon)

Sadiq needs to work on his blocking, but as a pure pass-catcher, with his sub-4.40 speed, he’ll provide a much-needed boost to the Jets’ receiving room. I would’ve preferred Lemon here, but Sadiq will complement Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, Mason Taylor, Breece Hall, and the newly-added Omar Cooper Jr., whom the Jets took at the end of Round 1, well. 

Grade: B+
Odds: +1400

17. Detroit Lions: Blake Miller (OT, Clemson)

I had a feeling the Lions would take an offensive tackle after losing some long-time veterans, and it was just a matter of who, and they opted for Miller over guys like Monroe Freeling and Max Iheanachor. 

Miller is the most “NFL-ready” of that group, doesn’t miss games, and didn’t opt out of Clemson’s bowl game. That type of profile fits the Dan Campbell mold well. 

He played right tackle at Clemson, so this may signal a move to left tackle for Penei Sewell, or Miller will play a guard spot. 

Grade: B
Odds: +800

18. Minnesota Vikings: Caleb Banks (DT, Florida)

I like Banks a lot, but No. 18 feels rich for me. He’s explosive and a phenomenal athlete, but for a player of his size and having all of those lower-body injuries, I’m not sure, it makes me a bit nervous. 

If he can stay healthy, Brian Flores will have a massive defensive tackle to work with, but there’s a lot of risk here. 

Grade: C+
Odds: +2200

19. Carolina Panthers: Monroe Freeling (OT, Georgia)

Ike Ekwonu is dealing with injuries, and now they have a guy who may need a bit more development, but if it goes to plan, he’ll be the long-term answer at left tackle for them. Again, would’ve preferred Lemon here, especially alongside Tetairoa McMillan, but Freeling’s athleticism, traits, and Ekwonu’s injury make this pick make sense. 

Grade: B+
Odds: +950

20. Philadelphia Eagles: Makai Leom (WR, USC)

The Eagles traded up ahead of the Steelers to get Lemon, signaling that A.J. Brown’s time with the team is all but coming to an end. He’s my top wide receiver in the draft because of his yards after the catch ability and elite route-running, so it’s hard for me not to love this selection. 

The Eagles will have a duo of Lemon and DeVonta Smith for years to come, but they need to overhaul the passing game with Jalen Hurts at quarterback. Hopefully, first-year offensive coordinator Sean Mannion can do that. 

Grade: A
Odds: +2800

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Max Iheanachor (OL, Arizona State)

It appears the Steelers were prepared to take Lemon before the Eagles traded up and took him, and thus, they get a developmental offensive line prospect in Iheanachor. He’s an athletic specimen with great length who will be able to help out in run blocking right away, but needs a bit of work to live up to his potential. 

He’ll be helpful, but not as helpful as other options would’ve been, as Aaron Rodgers, who I think is coming back, is likely playing in his last season. 

Grade: B
Odds: +1000

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Akheem Mesidor (EDGE, Miami-Fl.)

An older prospect at 25, this is around the range I expect Mesidor to go, if not slightly later. He’s not the biggest edge rusher, but he can win in multiple ways and will help a team that’s consistently pushing for a playoff spot and looking to make the next step. 

Grade: B
Odds: +800

23. Dallas Cowboys: Malachi Lawrence (EDGE, UCF)

Lawrence to the Cowboys was a popular pick due to his versatility to play inside and outside, his measureables, and athleticism. 

He’s still a work in progress, especially in the run game and developing more pass-rushing moves, but if it pays off, it’ll be a huge win. 

Grade: C+
Odds: +1600

24. Cleveland Browns: KC Concepcion (WR, Texas A&M)

The Browns needed another receiver opposite Jerry Jeudy, and while Concepcion isn’t the biggest receiver in the draft, he’s the best separator. His high drop rate is a concern, but if that can be addressed, the Browns have a fantastic receiver for whoever is playing quarterback in 2026. 

Grade: A
Odds: +350

25. Chicago Bears: Dillon Thieneman (S, Oregon)

I didn’t think Thieneman would be here for the Bears, but since he was, this was the right player to take. Thieneman exploded at the combine with a 4.35 40-yard dash, a 41” vertical, and a 10’5” broad jump. 

He can play all over the defensive backfield and will be productive right out of the gate. 

Grade: A
Odds: +1500

26. Houston Texans: Keyland Rutledge (OG, Georgia Tech)

The Texans needed to add some talent along the offensive line, and they did so with Rutledge. He was a late riser as a possible first-round pick, but his physical style of play is something the Texans will admire along one of the worst offensive lines in the league. 

Grade: B+
Odds: +2000

27. Miami Dolphins: Chris Johnson (CB, San Diego State)

Johnson is one of my favorite players in the draft, as he can play in any scheme and inside or outside. At this point, the Dolphins need to hit the premium positions and find more talent, and Johnson does just that. 

He dominated in the Mountain West and also played extremely well at the Senior Bowl. 

Grade: A
Odds: +2200

28. New England Patriots: Caleb Lomu (OT, Utah)

Lomu played left tackle at Utah, and once he gets a bit stronger for the NFL game, look out, because he could be the steal of the draft, as he has a lot of pass-blocking tools already. 

Morgan Moses is aging, and the Patriots need more offensive line help, but in the long term, I wonder whether Lomu will move to left tackle and Campbell move over, or vice versa. 

Either way, worry about that later. For now, enjoy a fantastic offensive line prospect. 

Grade: A
Odds: +700

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Peter Woods (DT, Clemson)

Chris Jones is aging, and the Chiefs do need more production from their defensive line, but Woods comes with some question marks after a down 2025. 

If the Chiefs can find that 2024 form, they’ve found their heir apparent. 

Grade: B+
Odds: +1600

30. New York Jets: Omar Cooper, Jr. (WR, Indiana)

The Jets added Bailey, Sadiq, and now Cooper in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft after trading back in. This is a lot of talent and an overhauled offense with Sadiq and Cooper Jr. 

Honestly, Cooper Jr. at No. 16 would’ve made sense, but now this Jets offense with Sadiq, Cooper Jr., Wilson, Hall, and Mitchell should leave no excuses for quarterback Geno Smith. 

Also, whoever is playing quarterback for them next year will be in for a treat. 

Grade: B+
Odds: +2000

31. Tennessee Titans: Keldric Faulk (EDGE, Auburn)

The Titans needed help along the defensive line, and now they get a massive prospect at nearly 6’6” and 276 pounds who can play the run well, but still needs a bit of work as a pass rusher. I could see him moving more inside as his career progresses, but either way, the Titans needed production along their defensive line, and Faulk, who’s one of the younger players in the draft, will do that. 

Grade: B+
Odds: +950

32. Seattle Seahawks: Jadarian Price (RB, Notre Dame)

Could the Seahawks have maybe gone with someone like Jermod McCoy, Avieon Terrell, T.J. Parker, or Colton Hood in this spot? Sure, but if they wanted a running back to assist Zach Charbonnet coming off the injury, they weren’t getting Price at their next pick, No. 64 overall. 

So, they fill an immediate need to help them hopefully repeat for a Super Bowl title. Could they have looked for running backs later? Sure, but none of the remaining are at the caliber of Price. 

A bit of a reach, but it makes some sense. 

Grade: B
Odds: +450

Photo Credit: AP/Vera Nieuwenhuis