2026 US Open Round 1 Matchup Odds, Picks, Best Bets & Analysis

By John Haslbauer | Jun 17, 2026, 7:18pm

We are just one day away from the 2026 US Open officially kicking off. That can only mean one thing: dissecting the Round 1 Matchups board!

In this article, we’ll touch on overall matchup betting strategy at the US Open, then jump into our favorite plays to consider before the first tee shot on Thursday.

18-Hole Matchup Strategy At The US Open

I tend to prefer betting in the full-tournament matchup markets, as I’m a firm believer that the larger the sample size, the more likely we are to see the superior player prevail.

The US Open, however, welcomes more access and information for us to scrutinize leading in. Based on the insights uncovered during practice rounds and course feedback in player interviews, there is still an opportunity to exploit value in the opening round.

Shinnecock Hills is a departure from the traditional modern US Open stop. It is a traditional American links golf course, more akin to an Open Championship venue, in which managing the wind and displaying elite touch around the greens are paramount. That diminishes the usual importance of driving, and creates a lane for non-traditional US Open contenders to pop.

In analyzing these Round 1 matchups, I’m looking to buy low on players who traditionally have had poor US Open history, as this figures to be a very unique test, and play more similarly to a traditional Open Championship venue. Ahead, we’ll go through four of my favorite Round 1 matchup plays to consider for the 2026 US Open.

Top Round 1 Matchup Plays

Ryan Fox over Jason Day

Best Odds Available: -110 (DraftKings)

The opening round of a major championship is often the most opportune time to ride the hot hand. Fox finished T8 at the RBC Canadian Open in his final start before heading to Shinnecock Hills, and has proven his game translates on the open links, winning the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2022. With top-35 finishes in five of his last six starts, Fox has demonstrated great ball striking form throughout this stretch of hot form, and ranks above-average to the field in SG: ARG.

Day, on the other hand, has been searching for answers for months, losing strokes on approach in each of his last four starts, and finishing outside the top-40 in each start since The Masters. Shinnecock Hills is not exactly a get-right spot, so I’ll side with Fox here as the player who is more in control of his game at the moment.

Ludvig Aberg over Brooks Koepka

Best Odds Available: -130 (DraftKings)

This matchup has a little more to do with my outlook for Brooks than it does with Aberg. Koepka will of course, carry plenty of attention and fanfare with him into the opening round of the 2026 US Open, as he is the “defending” champion at Shinnecock Hills dating back to its last time hosting in 2018. Unfortunately, he enters with lingering injury concerns after being forced to withdraw from last week’s RBC Canadian Open with a hand injury. Brooks is not currently the player he was in 2018 when he successfully repeated as US Open champion, so I’m approaching him with caution in the opening round until we’ve seen how the hand holds up.

Injury aside, Aberg is a rightful favorite in this matchup. He’s finished top-10 in five of his last eight starts, and was a real factor to win the last major, finishing T4 at the PGA Championship.

Cameron Smith over Rickie Fowler

Best Odds Available: -102 (DraftKings)

Staying consistent with my stance since the very beginning of the week, I think Cameron Smith is severely undervalued, considering his current form, pedigree as an Open champion, and course fit in difficult, windy conditions. Smith contended at Aronimink last month, finishing T7 to break a streak of six consecutive missed cuts in majors. The results on LIV have been gradually better this year as well, with five top-15 finishes over his first eight starts.

Fowler may have peaked too early this season, as he’s followed up a streak of three straight top-10s with another streak of three straight finishes of T60-or-worse leading into the US Open. While Fowler’s history on links courses is solid, I have too many concerns with the state of his overall game to feel confident in him under this difficult major championship setup.

JJ Spaun over Kurt Kitayama

Best Odds Available: -118 (DraftKings)

It was a slow start to the season for Spaun, but he’s rebounded nicely since his Valero Texas Open win, with five top-15 finishes over his last eight starts. He has been a consistent force from tee to green, ranking 1st in SG: APP, 4th in SG: Ball Striking, and 9th in SG: T2G over his last 36 rounds. The defending US Open champion may have some extra media obligations to handle this week, which just means he’ll be anxious to get back on the course this Thursday.

I am high on Kurt Kitayama overall, and do believe he is destined for another win soon on the PGA Tour. But that win is going to come on a course where he can pound greens into submission and not need to rely on his short game to score. Short game has been his downfall this season, and it’s a flaw I expect will be exaggerated on and around Shinnecock Hills’ brutal greens.

Best of luck with your 2026 US Open bets!

Photo Credit: AP/Sue Ogrocki

John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and DFS strategy for Lineups. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate of Syracuse University, John works full-time in Social Influencer Marketing Strategy and is based out of Long Island, N.Y. He created thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and co-hosts the Preferred Lines weekly podcast.