2026 US Open Prop Market Odds, Picks, Predictions & Analysis
We are just one day away from the third major of the 2026 golf season, the US Open. If you’re not like me and don’t follow golf religiously day by day, you probably have some questions before locking in your US Open bets. Lineups has you covered this week, as we’ll be analyzing everything you need to know about US Open Odds, with analysis continuing throughout the week.
That brings us to the next topic we’ve endeavored to unpack: How to find value across each novelty prop market. So without further ado, let’s dive into our analysis for best bets to make across each novelty prop market for the 2026 US Open.
2026 US Open Top Lefty Odds
My Pick: Brian Harman
Best Available Odds:
The competition amongst lefties continues to heat up, with Akshay Bhatia picking up an impressive Signature Event win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this year. Robert MacIntyre is the highest-ranked lefty by OWGR standards and may appreciate playing on the type of links setup he has dominated overseas. Brian Harman is a sleeper to watch in this market as well, having made the cut in each of his last eight US Open appearances. Sudarshan Yellamaraju, Matt McCarty, and Miles Russell round out this market as promising young talents capable of making a splash at Shinnecock Hills.
Assessing the board, I believe it’s Brian Harman who should be trusted most to go low in difficult links conditions. Harman is the only major champion of the bunch, withstanding comparably strong winds at the 2023 Open Championship. He enters this week in solid form, finishing top-40 in 7 of his last 9 starts.
2026 US Open Top Former Winner Odds
My Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick
Best Available Odds:
If you’re scared of Scottie Scheffler this week and looking for a market to avoid him in, this may be the sharpest market to do it. I believe it’s Jon Rahm who has the greatest chance outside of Scheffler to prevail at Shinnecock Hills, but Matt Fitzpatrick and Brooks Koepka also present interesting value in this market.
From a value perspective, Matt Fitzpatrick is the pick for me here. He has the most wins this season (3) of any other player in this market, and is in elite all-around form, in complete control of his driver, irons, and short game. Fitzpatrick has historically played his best in difficult scoring conditions where scrambling for pars is rewarded, and knows what it takes to win a US Open, prevailing at Brookline in 2022.
2026 US Open Cut Score Odds
My Pick: +8
Best Available Odds: +350
The cut line at Shinnecock Hills was +8 last time we were here in 2018. Will we see the same level of difficulty eight years later? The course itself has not changed drastically in the eight years that have passed, most notably expanding the fairway width slightly since 2018. With tee boxes, bunkers, and greens all the same, I believe any difference in playability this year versus 2018 will come down to the weather conditions and course setup.
Judging by what we’ve heard from the USGA and player feedback in the media this week, it sounds like we may be at a draw between those two factors. The USGA does not want to “lose the course” again and will err on the side of over-watering the greens to soften up the course if they need to. Conversely, the wind – especially on Thursday – appears to be even worse than what we saw in 2018. So if the course is slightly more generous with its landing areas and the softness of the greens, but withstands an uptick in wind speeds, we may very well net out seeing similar scoring to 2018.
2026 US Open LIV Lowest 18-Hole Score Odds
My Pick: Cameron Smith
Best Available Odds: +1200
It’s no secret at this point how much I like Cam Smith at Shinnecock Hills. He’s built his whole career around capitalizing on generous driving setups that increasingly test the field more the closer they get to the hole. Strangely, though, there are many LIV golfers I’m high on who suit Shinnecock Hills well. Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, Lucas Herbert, and David Puig all have a conceivable path to going low in windy links conditions.
Expecting a scrambling contest throughout the week, there is no player in this field whose short game I would take over Cameron Smith, and he’s available at a steep discount in this market. The low 18-hole score amongst LIV players will not be overwhelmingly low on Shinnecock’s difficult setup, assuming the winds stay up all week, which means it’s the players who are capable of holing putts from long range who stand the best chance to score here.
Top Player Over 40 Years Old
My Pick: Alex Noren
Best Available Odds: +500
Similar to the last prop, this is yet another opportunity to pick against Adam Scott, who continues to qualify for majors but has struggled to put himself in contention in them lately. Beyond Scott, this market also features Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, and Dustin Johnson.
Amongst that group, Noren is the third-favorite, but it’s his short game that stands out above the rest. I believe this is going to be a tournament decided by scrambling, and if that is the case, there’s no one whose hands I trust around the greens more than Alex Noren’s.
Best of luck with your US Open bets, and check in each day this week for more US Open analysis!
Photo Credit: AP/Sue Ogrocki
