2026 US Open Group Betting Markets, Odds, Best Bets & Predictions
We are just one day away from the third major of the 2026 golf season, the US Open. If you’re not like me and don’t follow golf religiously day by day, you probably have some questions before locking in your US Open bets. Lineups has you covered this week, as we’ll be analyzing everything you need to know about US Open Odds, with analysis continuing throughout the week.
That brings us to the next topic we’ve endeavored to unpack: How to find value across each Group Betting market. Group Bets follow a similar strategy as Golf Pools, in which players are grouped into tiers. This market allows bettors to take a stance on players of similar skill sets in a limited 5-player format.
So without further ado, let’s dive into our analysis for best bets to make across each Group Betting market for the 2026 US Open using DraftKings Sportsbook odds.
2026 US Open Group A Odds
- Scottie Scheffler: +146
- Rory McIlroy: +305
- Jon Rahm: +380
- Xander Schaffele: +560
- Cameron Young: +570
My Pick: Jon Rahm (+380)
Betting Scottie Scheffler is an expensive proposition in a full field, so I’m not exactly excited to take on the +146 odds premium against the four other best contenders in this field. I was on the fence between backing Scheffler or Rahm to win this event from an outright, and ultimately sided with Rahm, given his links experience and proven history as an established US Open champion.
Rahm disappoitned at the 2026 Masters, but has rebounded nicely since then, with a win and two additional runner-up finishes over his next five starts. He has the mix of power and finesse needed to withstand a test as stern as Shinnecock Hills, and proved he can show up prepared to a major while playing on LIV with an impressive T2 showing at the PGA Championship last month.
2026 US Open Group B Odds
- Tommy Fleetwood: +255
- Matt Fitzpatrick: +270
- Ludvig Aberg: +320
- Brooks Koepka: +420
- Bryson DeChambeau: +445
My Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick (+270)
If I were handicapping this tournament, I would have Matt Fitzpatrick as the 4th favorite to win the 2026 US Open, after the big 3 of Scheffler, McIlroy, and Rahm. Fitzpatrick has had a career year on the PGA Tour already and seems destined for well more than just one career major championship.
The 2022 US Open champion has picked up three wins on the PGA Tour already this season, and will come to Shinnecock Hills hot off a 2nd place finish at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. Fitzpatrick is one of the most reliable players around the green in this field, and is well-equipped to handle a scrambling contest in difficult, windy conditions.
2026 US Open Group C Odds
My Pick: Justin Rose (+510)
This is a wide-open group, and I believe the margins are much thinner than these odds suggest. Experience matters when it comes to links golf, and Rose has that in spades. He is the only player in this group who has found real success at Shinnecock Hills before, finishing T10 in his last appearance here in 2018.
Rose is in the midst of great form at the moment, finishing top-15 in four of his last seven starts. It is going to take patience and strategy to survive four rounds at Shinnecock Hills, and those happen to be two of the strongest pillars of the veteran Englishman’s game.
2026 US Open Group D Odds
- Tyrrell Hatton: +295
- Chris Gotterup: +310
- Patrick Cantlay: +315
- Wyndham Clark: +335
- Justin Thomas: +400
My Pick: Tyrrell Hatton (+295)
This is a wide-open group, and I believe the margins are much thinner than these odds suggest. Hatton carried LIV on his back at The Masters last month and was the only player from his Tour to show up in Augusta, ultimately posting a career-best T3 finish at the Masters. He now enters Shinnecock Hills fresh off a win at LIV Andalucia, and has started to look like his vintage self again by leaning on the strengths of his driving accuracy, approach play, and short game.
Hatton came closest to winning a major at the 2025 U.S. Open, finishing T4 at Oakmont CC. Prior to that, his best career finish in a US Open came here in 2018, where he finished T6. Hatton is one of the best links players in the modern game, and picked up his last PGA Tour win in tough and windy conditions at the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Overall, this is a great course fit for Hatton’s game, and his game looks to be improving since we last saw him at Valderrama.
2026 US Open Group E Odds
My Pick: Patrick Reed (+240)
It’s been a fascinating season for Patrick Reed, who left LIV, won two of his first three DP World Tour starts, and now seems content to only play in the majors until he’s officially earned 2027 PGA Tour status. He’ll now head to Shinnecock Hills, the self-proclaimed favorite course of his on the US Open rotation. That affinity has paid off for him as well, finishing 4th here back in 2018 where he held a share of the lead with 11 holes to play on Sunday.
A lack of reps in between majors has not influenced his play, as Reed has finished T12 and T10 in the first two majors of the year. If conditions are harsh, and Shinnecock Hills becomes another scrambling contest, Reed will be licking his chops as one of the most reliable scramblers in this field.
2026 US Open Group F Odds
My Pick: Shane Lowry (+370)
Only one player in this group has won an Open Championship on a proper links course setup, and he just so happens to be available at the longest odds. Say what you will about Shane Lowry’s concerns closing golf tournaments throughout his career, but this is not an outright betting market after all.
Lowry is at his best in windy, grind-it-out conditions where approach play and scrambling are rewarded. That is evidenced by his consistent success at The Open, Pebble Beach, and PGA National.
2026 US Open Group G Odds
- Viktor Hovland: +295
- Kurt Kitayama: +295
- Harris English: +320
- Robert MacIntyre: +355
- Bud Cauley: +395
My Pick: Harris English (+320)
Short game skill is going to be vital at Shinnecock Hills, and that is something the two favorites in this group sorely lack. Robert MacIntyre is the conventional choice on a links course setup that rewards combating high winds and consistently scrambling in tough scoring conditions. I’m not quite sold on his form leading in to this week, however, as MacIntyre has just one top-40 finish over his last seven starts.
That leads me to Harris English, one of the most underrated major competitors in this field. English has seven top-25 finishes in majors over his last 12 appearances, including a career-best runner-up finish in links conditions at the 2025 Open Championship. English is in great form leading in as well, with four top-25 finishes over his last five starts.
2026 US Open Group H Odds
My Pick: Aaron Rai (+305)
Rai is an accomplished wind player, which proved to be the x-factor in his maiden major championship win at Aronimink. That wind experience includes a win on the Scottish links at the 2020 Scottish Open
Rai’s confidence continues to build after his momentous major win last month, and his game remains in great form with four top-25 finishes over his last five starts. He’ll lean on his elite accuracy to position himself well for the sparse birdie opportunities that Shinnecock offers.
2026 US Open Group I Odds
- Rickie Fowler: +295
- Kristoffer Reitan: +310
- Sepp Straka: +310
- JT Poston: +360
- Nicolai Hojgaard: +375
My Pick: Kristoffer Reitan (+310)
The Norwegian knows a thing or two about withstanding nasty weather conditions. He broke through with a win overseas at the 2025 Soudal Open, and has not skipped a beat since joining the PGA Tour this season. The PGA Tour rookie announced himself to the world with an impressive victory at the Truist Championship, and now has five top-15 finishes over his last seven starts.
Reitan is a longer hitter, but has also demonstrated great touch on and around the greens throughout this run of hot form. He’s made the cut in each of his first two major appearances this season, but should have greater expectations for himself going into Shinnecock.
2026 US Open Group J Odds
- Alex Noren: +270
- Jacob Bridgeman: +285
- Gary Woodland: +355
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju: +365
- Jason Day: +385
My Pick: Alex Noren (+270)
Few setups in golf favor experience more than links courses, so I’m drawn to Noren’s proven track record navigating the uncertainty of gusting winds over the course of his long career split between the PGA and DP World Tour.
Relative to the rest of this group, Noren has shown he can elevate his game in difficult conditions, picking up two wins on the DP World Tour last fall. If winds pick up and this becomes a scrambling contest, Noren is the only player in this group who can lean on his short game as the greatest strength of his game.
2026 US Open Group K Odds
- Keegan Bradley: +305
- Keith Mitchell: +305
- Cameron Smith: +320
- Jackson Koivun: +340
- Akshay Bhatia: +380
My Pick: Cameron Smith (+320)
Staying consistent with my stance since the very beginning of the week, I think Cameron Smith is severely undervalued, and belongs several groups up in the market, considering his current form, pedigree as an Open champion, and course fit in difficult, windy conditions.
Smith contended at Aronimink last month, finishing T7 to break a streak of six consecutive missed cuts in majors. The results on LIV have been gradually better this year as well, with five top-15 finishes over his first eight starts. The driver, as always, is the concern for Smith. But if he sustains his world-best short game, it may not matter.
2026 US Open Group L Odds
My Pick: Ryan Fox (+345)
In this final group, there are more holes to poke in each player’s game, but it’s Fox who I feel most optimistic about, given his current form and experience in comparable conditions.
Fox finished T8 at the RBC Canadian Open in his final start before heading to Shinnecock Hills, and has proven his game translates on the open links, winning the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2022. With top-35 finishes in five of his last six starts, Fox has demonstrated great ball striking form throughout this stretch of hot form, and ranks above-average to the field in SG: ARG.
Best of luck with your US Open bets, and check in each day this week for more US Open analysis!
Photo Credit: AP/David J. Phillip
