NHL Anytime Goal Scorer Picks Backed by Expected Goals Data: Bet On Auston Matthews?
There’s a 10-game NHL slate on deck for Tuesday, and we’ve dug through the matchups to deliver our favorite NHL goal scorer picks for January 27. Read below for our best bets and analysis.
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NHL Goal Scorer Picks for Tuesday, January 27: Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews & more
While there are many players to choose from in a slate this big, sorting through all of the betting options can take some time. Thankfully, we’ve done that part and come up with four recommendations for anyone looking to make NHL goal scorer picks today.
Predators vs. Bruins Anytime Goal Scorer: Steven Stamkos ()
After retooling their front line in the offseason, the Nashville Predators’ offense has failed to live up to expectations, fielding a unit that ranks below league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Even when surrounded by an underwhelming supporting cast, Steven Stamkos has still been able to play at a high level by averaging 0.35 Expected Goals per game.
In a favorable matchup against the Boston Bruins, expect Stamkos to pressure the net at a higher rate by relentlessly attacking a defense that ranks 30th in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with positive regression looming over his linemates due to Boston’s lackluster coverage, creating wider shooting lanes in front of the net for Stamkos to take advantage of when the Bruins are forced to stretch out their back line.
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights Best Bets: Jack Eichel Anytime Goal Scorer ()
Since the start of the regular season, the Vegas Golden Knights’ odds to win the Stanley Cup have steadily grown as they are currently 25-14-12 while their front line ranks in the top half of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Jack Eichel has played a major role in Vegas’ hot start to the year, averaging 0.33 Expected Goals and 3.77 Shots on Goal per game.
With the Montreal Canadiens back line ranking 22nd in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots, Eichel will be able to generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal in front of the net, which increases his chances of scoring. For some more exposure, escalator bet Eichel’s Anytime Goal Scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds.
Jets vs. Devils Picks: Timo Meier Anytime Goal Scorer ()
When at full strength, the New Jersey Devils have been able to play at a high level by sending out a front line that ranks in the top-15 in Expected Goals For in 5-on-5 Play. Timo Meier’s availability is vital to their success as he is one of two players on the Devils roster who average more than 3.00 Shots on Goal per game.
In Tuesday night’s matchup against Winnipeg, expect Meier to continue to create high-quality scoring opportunities in front of the crease as he faces off against a Jets back line that ranks 23rd in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with Connor Hellebuyck in the net, the Devils’ aggression will force the reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner to scramble between the pipes, which will open up wider gaps beside him.
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Predictions: Auston Matthews Anytime Goal Scorer ()
After trading Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ front line has harshly regressed per their near-dead-last mark in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their regression on offense brings in a high amount of negative variance into their contests, making it hard for them to dig out of a deficit once they fall behind on the scoreboard.
Fortunately for the Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews has been able to keep them competitive while receiving minimal support from his linemates by averaging nearly 0.50 Expected Goals per game. With the Buffalo Sabres back line residing in the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations, expect Matthews to continue pressure the net at a high rate while exploiting their gaps in coverage.
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