Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Golf DFS Picks: 4 Sleeper Picks, 100-1 Longshot
The PGA Tour remains stationed in the Sunshine State as the Florida Swing continues to Bay Hill Resort & Lodge for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational. In last week’s golf DFS picks article, we successfully identified Kevin Roy as a longshot top-25 finisher. We’ll look to keep that momentum going in search of more diamonds in the rough for your golf betting.
While there have been a few surprises here and there at this event, Bay Hill is a venue that rewards long-hitters with the most well-rounded skill sets. That may not exactly be conducive to landing on a long shot outright. But there’s still value to find when analyzing course profile fits throughout the field.
Let’s get to our 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups and betting cards. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now at the best available prices in your state.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf DFS Picks: Betting Odds To Win
If you want to add sportsbook bets to your golf DFS picks this week, compare the odds below. Shop the best odds at sports betting sites and sports betting apps for PGA Tour sleepers and more highly touted players using the pulldown menu in the top left. Best of luck if you choose to bet on these golf DFS picks. Click any of our sportsbook links to open up a new account and wager on the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Finding Value in the Arnold Palmer Invitational Field
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile, then take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Course History, recent form, and Scoring in Difficult Conditions are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a sleeper perspective, I will take a stance on the importance of proximity from 200+ yards and Bogey Avoidance in Difficult Scoring Conditions as opportunities to buy low on some potential diamonds in the rough in this field. I’m leaning on that to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament.
Below, find my favorite golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Stats were pulled across the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted. Each player is listed with the best price in Arnold Palmer Invitational odds.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, read my Arnold Palmer Invitational preview. Below are my favorite Arnold Palmer Invitational sleeper picks.
Sepp Straka
If you’re looking for someone to repeat Russell Henley’s unexpected performance from last year, Sepp Straka checks all of the same boxes. Like Henley, Straka is a Georgia native who favors Bermuda setups, most recently winning in the state of Florida at the 2022 Honda Classic.
Eight of the last nine winners of this event posted a T15 before their victories. Straka fits that narrative as well, finishing T5 at this event last year. Bay Hill’s rough is as penal as any course on the PGA TOUR, so it’s paramount to play out of the fairway here. Straka ranks top-15 in SG: Ball Striking, SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions), and Proximity 200+, making him a popular value play in fantasy and betting markets at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Corey Conners
The Arnold Palmer Invitational has proven to be one of the stickiest events on TOUR in terms of repeatable course history. Conners is living proof of that, with finishes of 3rd, T18, T21, T11, and 3rd over his last five starts. It’s his ability to consistently play from the fairway that’s led to such a high floor for Conners in this event, and despite the slow start to the 2026 season, his driving still remains in vintage form. Conners ranks top-10 in this field in Driving Accuracy and Good Drive Percentage.
Beyond the driving stats, Conners also ranks top-10 in this field in Comp Course History, SG: Ball Striking (Difficult Fairway Conditions), SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions), and Proximity 200+. I’m not quite convinced Conners’ form is ready to slay a field of this quality, but he makes for a great placement bet or fantasy selection given his consistent course history and recent performance in comp conditions.
Keith Mitchell
Mitchell was the last man in this field by way of the AON Swing 5, thanks to a T11 and T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open and Cognizant Classic. The 2019 Honda Classic champion has a strong affinity for difficult Florida venues that reward skilled Total Driving, and that success has translated to the API as well. He’s picked up a pair of top-6 finishes over five career appearances, and placed T24 in his most recent visit here in 2023.
Mitchell remains an elite ball striker on the PGA TOUR, ranking top-15 in SG: OTT, Driving Distance, and SG: Ball Striking. The short game has been more volatile this season, but the Georgia Bulldog has shown us over the course of his career that he is best suited to scramble on familiar Bermuda greens. A new putting grip paid dividends on the greens at the Cognizant Classic last week, and he should be a factor in the week’s tournament once again if the putter continues to cooperate for him.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Distance will always carry you far at Bay Hill, one of the longest courses on the PGA TOUR schedule. So as we look further down the board for longshots and sleepers, that’s a prized commodity. Thorbjornsen ranks top-5 in this field in Driving Distance, a skillset that propelled him to top-20 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and WM Phoenix Open – both driver-heavy setups.
Thorbjorsen will be making his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut this week, and that lack of course experience is surely priced into his discounted odds this week. I’m not convinced that should be the case, however, as he’ll have J.J. Jakovac on the bag to steward him through. Jakovac was alongside Collin Morikawa for his runner-up finish at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, so they should be able to conjure up a good game plan for this week.
Best of luck if you bet or play these golf DFS picks for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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