Broncos-Patriots SGP Picks: AFC Championship Same-Game Parlay Best Bets for Sunday, January 25
The top-seeded but shorthanded Denver Broncos () host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game at Mile High on Sunday afternoon.
Let’s take a look at the best Broncos-Patriots SGP picks we could put together by analyzing the offerings at several sportsbooks for this AFC Championship battle. Click any odds below to place a bet. For more sportsbook promos, we highly recommend checking out the best sports betting sites.
Broncos vs. Patriots Odds, Preview, Picks & Same-Game Parlay (+230 at DraftKings)
Our same-game parlay is (+230 at DraftKings), although you can shop around for the best price once you combine your selections:
- Denver Broncos
- New England Patriots Team Total Under 23.5 (-105)
- RJ Harvey 40+ Rushing Yards (-171)
Broncos vs. Patriots Predictions: Broncos
Since the start of the regular season, the Denver Broncos’ defense has been one of the more formidable units in the league, fielding a group that resides near the top of the board in Def DVOA and in EPA. Denver’s ability to generate pressure with just their front four, while their second level anchors in coverage forces opposing quarterbacks to throw into high Havoc situations, making it easier for their secondary to create disruptions and hold them into early outs.
With negative regression looming over Drake Maye, Jarrett Stidham will be tasked with keeping it close to help cover the first leg while Bo Nix is out with an injury. Fortunately for Stidham, he faces off against the New England Patriots, who struggle to collapse the pocket as their below league average mark in Def Pass Rush Win Rate indicates. With Stidham getting to set his feet instead of having to throw on the run, he will be able to connect with his pass catchers at a high rate, which will help keep their offense ahead of the sticks.
Broncos vs. Patriots Picks: Patriots Team Total Under 23.5 (-105)
Not only do the Broncos excel at defending against the pass, but their front seven has also been dominant in their efforts of stuffing the run, entering the playoffs ranked in the top-5 in Run Defense PFF Grade. With the Broncos’ defensive line slowing down running backs in the trenches by clogging their running lanes with their pressure, their linebackers can bring them down at the point of contact and hold them to minimal gains with each carry.
Heading into the AFC Conference Championship, expect the Broncos’ front seven to build on their momentum by exploiting a Patriots offensive line that ranks in the bottom half of the board in Run Block Set Grade.
Especially with Rhamondre Stevenson struggling to generate Yards After Contact, making him vulnerable to getting bottled up in the backfield when his offensive line gets pushed back shortly after the snap. With no clear path for New England to get into scoring position, expect the Patriots to be held under their team total.
Patriots vs. Broncos player props: RJ Harvey 40+ Rushing Yards (-171)
Corum is getting plenty of opportunities alongside Kyren Williams over the final half of the season. The former Michigan standout has eclipsed eight rushing attempts in five of the last seven games.
In 13 consecutive games, Corum has produced at least six carries, so it’s about him finishing it off and receiving those final few attempts. In the loss at Seattle last month, Corum had a season-high 14 rushing attempts, as the Rams led in the fourth quarter.
Final Broncos vs. Patriots Sunday Same-Game Parlay (SGP) Prediction
These picks offer a combined +230 odds at DraftKings as of this publication. Remember to wager responsibly on these plays given the volatility of same-game parlays.
Best of luck with your NFL bets on Sunday!
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