Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Preview, Picks & Odds for Saturday, April 25, 2026

By Nate Weitzer | Apr 24, 2026, 8:28pm

Over the past three seasons, the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves have developed one of the most fierce rivalries in the NBA. The Northwest Division foes are once again clashing in the NBA Playoffs and Minnesota has won consecutive games to take a 2-1 series lead.

Saturday’s Game 4 is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minnesota with ESPN on the broadcast.

Denver was dealt an apparent death blow prior to Game 3 when it was announced Aaron Gordon (calf) would be unable to play. Gordon is vital to Denver’s defense and a key third option offensively behind Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Minnesota’s offense had a field day with Gordon out, running out to a 61-39 halftime lead with dominant interior play.

Rudy Gobert has helped hold Jokic to uncharacteristic 15-for-46 (32.8%) shooting with just 11 assists over the past two matchups. The Nuggets supporting cast was completely ineffective in Game 3 while the Wolves continued to sell out against Jokic and Murray.

The Nuggets are slight favorites to even the series and the total has dipped a tick down from 234.5 points in Game 3 to 229.5 points ahead of Game 4. Let’s take a look at some of the betting angles to consider for Saturday.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Betting Analysis

This rivalry has been dead even over the past few years and their Western Conference semifinals matchup in 2024 went back-and-forth throughout the 7-game series.

Of course, Jokic and the Nuggets can bounce back after looking lifeless and non-competitive in Game 4. In 2024, Denver went back to Minnesota down, 2-0, and won the next three games, with Jokic dropping 75 points in Games 4 and 5 to boost his incredible career averages against Gobert. While Gobert has bottled him up in recent games, that is unlikely to continue.

Jokic is projected for 28.5 points or 9.5 assists at most books. Given Minnesota’s strategy to play him one-on-one with Gobert and limit his playmaking, taking the Over on points, or the Under on assists would make sense.

It could also make sense to back Jamal Murray to step up his playmaking. Books haven’t reached an exact consensus on Murray with his points + assists prop sitting at 30.5 to 32.5 at different sites. Capitalize on that discrepancy by grabbing the Over on a lower number.

Denver is 21-8 straight up this season after a loss and 43-18 when favored. However, the Nuggets haven’t been great on the road over the past two seasons, and went 1-5 on the road last postseason. Note that five of those six games failed to top 220 points.

Minnesota has played up to competition all season and played down to bad teams with a weak record against the spread when favored, or following a win (just 20-30 ATS). But the Wolves are technically underdogs here and are looking to bury a hated rival, which is wounded without Gordon. It would be Wolves or pass for us on the spread or moneyline.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Best Bet, Pick & Prediction

Best Bet: MIN O55.5 1H Points (-108)
Score Prediction: Minnesota 115, Denver 112

This has been the fastest-paced series in the 2026 playoffs and Minnesota is actively looking to run at every opportunity to utilize depth and athleticism advantages. The Wolves are shooting 84.5% in the restricted area in the first half with Jokic apparently not interested in contesting shots in the paint. They also have a 30 to 14.7 PPG advantage on points in the paint in the first half, leading to scores of 62, 64, and 61 at the break, despite shooting just 30% on above-the-break 3-point attempts.

If Gordon can’t play, the Nuggets will have no answers defensively for Anthony Edwards, who didn’t even get going in Game 3 due to foul trouble. Minnesota can keep the pedal down with Ayo Dosunmu relieving Edwards in the second quarter, and Naz Reid also had an off-game in Game 3, but is typically a dynamic scorer in home playoff games.

Expect the Nuggets to figure some things out offensively and hold up their end of the bargain to boost the first-half total. But we can lean on Minnesota’s aggressive fast-paced style producing another Over on the Wolves first half total.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game Odds

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game Information

Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Network: ABC
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Venue: Target Center – 225.5 ppg; 14-28 O/U
Series Score: Timberwolves 2-1

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Betting Resources

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Key Players

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic – Last Game: 27 points, 15 rebounds, 3 assists
Jamal Murray – Last Game: 16 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists
Cam Johnson – Last Game: 6 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards – Last Game: 17 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists
Julius Randle – Last Game: 15 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists
Jaden McDaniels – Last Game: 20 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists

Nate Weitzer

Nate Weitzer has been covering sports betting and daily fantasy sports at Catena Media for nearly a decade, focusing primarily on NBA and NFL content. He is the co-host of the NBA and NFL Coast 2 Coast show on the Lineups YouTube channel, where he provides daily picks and prop bets alongside co-host Josh Lander. He also runs the NFL premium content channel at LandYourBets.com. In addition to his duties at Catena, Weitzer is a high school sports reporter for The Boston Globe and a freelance writer for other outlets, covering stories ranging from high school championships to ski mountaineering races. He graduated from Boston University’s MS in Sports Journalism program in 2012.