DraftKings MLB Daily Fantasy Picks 5/21/19
Contents
Slate News, Injuries, Vegas Totals, & Weather
14 games on tonight’s slate, with only one real weather concern. The game in St. Louis is where we could have a shortened game or PPD threat. Houston and New York are the only favorites above -200. New York, Milwaukee, Texas, Houston, Seattle, and St. Louis are teams with a five implied total or higher. There are 14 teams on tonight’s slate with a four implied total or less. There are a few stacks to go with, but it is also a good night to dive into some one-offs.
Cash Pitchers
Justin Verlander ($11,300) – Chicago has under a three implied total tonight, and Houston sit as -351 favorites. Justin Verlander is an easy cash game play, taking on a White Sox lineup that struggles against right-handers. Overall the projected lineup has a .322 wOBA and 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Verlander is up to his usual with a 31% strikeout rate, and holding both sides of the plate to under a .300 wOBA. Not much else to talk about here, as Verlander is one of the elite fantasy pitchers in baseball.
Caleb Smith ($10,400) – Detroit has a 27% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, and five bats below a .300 wOBA in their projected lineup. Caleb Smith has been excellent with a 35.2% strikeout rate and 2.99 xFIP on the season. He is holding both sides of the plate to under a .280 wOBA. He is a viable option in all format. He works ahead in the count 59% of the time, and has hitters sitting at a 66% contact rate. Smith has a whiff rate of 42% on his slider, and 41% on his changeup. His fastball is also siting with a respectable 24% whiff rate. Relying on that strong slider, Detroit ranks 26th agains the pitch. Tremendous spot to pay up for.
GPP Pitchers
Domingo German ($9,900) – Domingo German has a 25.4% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate this season. Right-handers have a .211 wOBA and .072 ISO off him, while lefties sit with a .263 wOBA and .167 ISO. German has shown better control this season, and has been on a roll of late. Facing the Orioles is also the plus tonight, as the projected lineup has a .324 wOBA and 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. German’s curveball is the moneymaker pitch, as he has a 46% whiff rate. he uses his changeup to lefties, which also has a 35% whiff rate. Baltimore half their lineup under a 70% contact rate against curveballs.
Spencer Turnbull ($7,800) – Spencer Turnbull has a 24% strikeout rate this season, and has held right-handed hitters to a .249 wOBA and .079 ISO. Seven right-handed hitters are in the projected order, and the lefties are not even ones to shy away from. He has a 37% whiff rate on his curveball, and a 41% whiff rate on his cutter. Turnbull has been able to miss bats this season, and gets the worst lineup in baseball. Their projected lineup has a .294 wOBA, .095 ISO, and 22.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. While the odds of a win are tough with Caleb Smith on the other side, you don’t necessarily need it at this price. He has a lot of upside for a pitcher under $8,000 and can allow you to fit some bats in.
Top Offenses To Target
New York Yankees (5.9) – David Hess has a 5.59 xFIP and has allowed a .397 wOBA and .402 ISO to right-handed hitters. Hess is allowing over a 45% flyball rate and 40% hard-contact rate to both sides of the plate. Camden Yards is a plus ballpark, so no real downside for the Yankees being on the road. Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and Gary Sanchez are right-handed power bats with over a .200 ISO against right-handers this season. DJ LeMahieu isn’t a big power bat, but he leads off for a team with a near six implied total. New York will always be a popular offense, but still can be targeted in all formats.
Texas Rangers (6.1) – We can go right back to the well with Texas tonight, even with the lefty on the hill. You have to go back to the last two or three years to get a relative sample on Tommy Milone. He has allowed a .445 wOBA and .297 ISO to right-handed hitters since 2017. He has also allowed a .203 ISO to lefties. His flyball rate is above 40% to both sides of the plate, and there is a reason why he is just making a casual start on a team going nowhere. Logan Forsythe and Hunter Pence have turned back the clock against left-handed pitching this season. Pence and Forsythe both have a .200 ISO or higher against right-handed pitching. Nomar Mazara has been sneaky good against lefties with a .289 ISO, and of course you have Joey Gallo. With Milone likely getting knocked out early, you also get to target one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
Seattle Mariners (5.5) – On the other side of this game, Seattle gets Lance Lynn. He has allowed a .356 wOBA and .196 ISO to right-handed hitters. Lefties have a .325 wOBA off him, but have usually been the side to target. He has below average strikeout stuff, and is allowing a hard-contact rate north of 40% to both sides of the plate. Lynn has also pitched worse at home, allowing a 48% hard-contact rate and 14 earned runs over three starts. Seattle’s offense has become more boom or bust as anticipated, but the big bats have HR potential in this spot. Jay Bruce, Omar Narvaez, Edwin Encarnacion, Mitch Haniger, and Daniel Vogelbach are the big names I am looking at.
Houston Astros (5.7) – Houston was a let down last night, but you can’t score 10+ runs every game. Going back to last season, Dylan Covey has a 4.84 xFIP and 10% walk rate. He runs into a team that hits sinkers well and that is a problem for Covey given he throws them over 50% of the time to both sides of the plate if you use that time period. However, this season he has thrown them less, and it has hurt his groundball rate. He has a 7.51 xFIP over a small 2019 sample, and has a 16% walk rate to an 8% strikeout rate. Hitters have a contact rate of 82% against him, and he is missing bats at just a 6% clip. George Springer and Aledmys Diaz remain questionable, but overall this offense remains one to target.
Top GPP Bats
Eugenio Suarez ($4,900) – Gio Gonzalez has made just a few starts this season, allowing a .338 wOBA and .167 ISO to right-handers. Nothing substantial both ways, but Gonzalez is an average arm who doesn’t miss a ton of bats. Suarez hits fastballs and sinkers well of left-handed pitching, but the off-speed pitch of choice to right-handed hitters is his changeup. Suarez has a .420 wOBA and .358 ISO off changeups. He also has an 87% contact rate. In general, Suarez just mashes left-handed pitching. He has a .444 wOBA and .351 ISO off southpaws this season. His hard-contact sits at 57%. Love him tonight at Miller Park. Nick Senzel and if Yasiel Puig is in are in play too.
Jorge Polanco ($4,900) – Trevor Cahill does not look like the guy he has been the last few seasons. He is allowing over a .300 ISO to both sides of the plate, and hitters have a 79% contact rate against him. His groundball and strikeout rates are way down as well. Left-handed hitters have a 25% line drive rate and 51% hard-contact rate against Cahill this season. This makes bats like Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario standout as well. Jorge Polanco has been a fantasy stud this season. He has a .444 wOBA and .299 ISO off right-handed pitching. His lift looks much better than the last few seasons, and he rarely strikes out. A bit expensive, but Polanco has a ton of upside.
Mitch Moreland ($4,800) – Mitch Moreland has a .373 ISO off right-handed pitching this season, and also brings a sub 20% strikeout rate. He has been unlucky in the average department, which should cause him to go overlooked most nights. Marcus Stroman is a good groundball pitcher who now possesses a healthy slider. He doesn’t throw it as much to lefties as he does righties, but even then Moreland has pretty good numbers off Stroman’s main pitches to left-handed hitters. Against sliders, Moreland has a .356 wOBA and .221 ISO. Against sinkers he has a .298 ISO and just a 43% groundball rate. Against cutters, Moreland has a .257 ISO and 46% hard-contact rate. He gets a bump in the Rogers Centre tonight, as he has a .397 wOBA on the road compared to .345 at Fenway.
