MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, June 30, 2026
We got shut out on Monday, as Brandon Lowe, Wilyer Abreu, and Cal Raleigh each failed to hit home runs. Let’s try to get back on track for the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re going with Taylor Ward, Francisco Alvarez, and Dominic Canzone. I like the matchups for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 56-212 (+1.14 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, June 30
Taylor Ward Home Run Odds
Taylor Ward is currently slashing .253/.384/.356 with five home runs in 391 plate appearances. It’s been an extremely disappointing season for Ward when it comes to power, especially after he slugged 36 homers last year. But he has enough of a track record to trust that he’ll start going yard again.
On a positive note, you have to like how he’s increased his walk rate from 11.3% to 16.9% while trimming his strikeout rate from 26.4% to 21.0%. The problem has been that his barrel rate has plummeted from 13.7% to 5.4%.
However, we’ve seen some good news lately, as Ward has homered twice in his last eight games. Perhaps he’s starting to find his power groove again. It’s only a matter of time before that happens.
I like tonight’s matchup against White Sox righty Erick Fedde, who has a 4.66 xERA and a 1.69 HR/9 this season. That’s exactly what you want to see when targeting a home run prop. Bet on Ward to hit No. 6 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Francisco Alvarez Home Run Odds
Francisco Alvarez is currently slashing .250/.314/.426 with eight home runs in 196 plate appearances. The 24-year-old catcher has good power for his position; we just haven’t been able to fully witness it because he’s been injured quite often.
Alvarez comes into tonight’s game on a nice streak, having homered three times in his last eight games. You have to like how he’s been absolutely crushing the ball, as highlighted by a 17.1% barrel rate.
Up next is a matchup against a pitcher who has fallen on hard times lately, Kevin Gausman. In his last two starts, Gausman has given up a combined 13 earned runs, including four homers. In fact, Gausman has now given up at least one home run in five consecutive outings.
That sounds like the perfect spot for a home run prop, so we’ll ride with Alvarez to hit No. 9 here.
Dominic Canzone Home Run Odds
Dominic Canzone is quietly having a breakout season, slashing .273/.347/.552 with 13 home runs in 219 plate appearances. He’s improved his walk rate from 7.5% to 9.1% while trimming his strikeout rate from 22.0% to 21.0%. This is while maintaining an elite barrel rate of 16.0%.
We saw Canzone homer last night, which was his third in the last 10 games. He’ll have a chance to continue to do so against Angels’ righty Jose Soriano, who has crashed back to Earth following a dominant start to the season.
In his last two starts, Soriano has given up a combined nine runs, including three homers. Soriano has allowed at least one homer in five of his last six outings.
Considering Soriano’s struggles and Canzone’s elite batted ball metrics, we’ll go with the Mariners’ outfielder to hit No. 14 here.
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