MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, April 14, 2026
We correctly chose Aaron Judge to hit a home run on Monday, but with his short odds, we took a small loss since both Austin Riley and Roman Anthony let us down.
Today, we’re rolling with Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman, and Dansby Swanson. Each of these hitters is in favorable weather conditions tonight.
Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 5-44 (-1.85 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, April 14
Pete Alonso Home Run Odds
Pete Alonso is currently slashing .213/.314/.377 with two home runs in 70 plate appearances. It’s been a slow start for Alonso with his new team, but he’s still putting up a 59.5% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 96th percentile.
The former Met is starting to heat up at the plate, going 4-for-9 with a home run in his last two games. The weather looks great for hitting tonight, as the forecasts call for 86-degree temperatures with 13 MPH winds blowing out at Camden Yards.
The Diamondbacks are sending out veteran righty Merrill Kelly, who is making his season debut following an injury absence. Kelly gave up a lot of hard contact last season, as highlighted by his 9.2% barrel rate.
Additionally, Alonso has had success against Kelly throughout his career, homering three times with a .948 expected slugging percentage in 19 plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Alonso to go yard for the 3rd time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
Matt Chapman Home Run Odds
Matt Chapman has only one home run in 67 plate appearances so far, but he’s a perennial 20+ home run hitter, with 27 homers in three of his last five seasons. While Chapman isn’t hitting the ball hard, featuring a 32.7% hard-hit rate (22nd percentile) and a 4.1% barrel rate (25th percentile), I like the spot for him tonight.
For one, the game is at Great American Ball Park, which is the most homer-friendly environment in MLB. Brady Singer is on the mound as well, which is good news because he’s allowing a 64.3% hard-hit rate (2nd percentile) and 11.9% barrel rate (25th percentile).
Chapman has performed well against Singer, homering twice with a 1.055 expected slugging percentage in 10 career plate appearances. It’s also a good sign that Chapman has hit safely in seven of his last eight games.
This feels like a spot where Chapman could hit his second home run of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
Dansby Swanson Home Run Odds
Dansby Swanson is struggling at the plate, featuring a .173/.323/.365 slash, but at least he has three homers in these 65 plate appearances. The veteran shortstop is hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by his 14.3% barrel rate.
It’s also worth noting that Swanson is really starting to heat up at the plate, homering in each of his last two games. That’s good news against Aaron Nola, who is a pitcher that Swanson has a lot of familiarity with. In 71 career plate appearances, Swanson has three home runs with a .509 expected slugging percentage.
While Nola has been rock-solid so far this year, he still has an issue with the long ball, including a 1.56 HR/9 (1.72 HR/9) last year.
There are favorable weather conditions in Philadelphia, including 85-degree temperatures with 11 MPH winds blowing out.
Given these circumstances, we’ll ride with Swanson to hit No. 4 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
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Photo Credit: AP/Gene J. Puskar
