Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Game 1 Preview, Picks & Odds for Wednesday, May 6, 2026

By Kody Malstrom | May 05, 2026, 7:25pm

After squeaking out the win in game seven against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Montreal Canadiens now battle it out against the Buffalo Sabres in the second round of the NHL playoffs. Two contenders who mirror each other quite well, fielding two high powered offenses while their back line struggles to defend their net.

Luckily for both back lines, their goal tending has been able to mask their struggles in coverage, reducing the amount of negative variance in the process. With both offenses firing on all cylinders, expect Jakub Dobes and Alex Lyon to fall hard back down to reality, resulting in a thrilling high scoring affair to kick off the series.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Betting Analysis

After struggling to play at a competitive level on offense last year, the Buffalo Sabres front line have been able to round back into form this season, entering the playoffs ranked above league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Tage Thompson has played a major role in their success as the focal point of their offense, averaging 0.42 Expected Goals per game.

Heading into game one against Montreal, expect the Sabres front line to build on their momentum by taking advantage of a back line who resides near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with Jakub Dobes patrolling their net, the Sabres versatility will force him to constantly scramble, widening the width of their shooting lanes.

On the other side of the ice, the Canadiens front line have been able to match the Sabres output, ranking in the top-10 in Expected Goals For. Every bit of their production on offense has been needed just to mask their lack of coverage on the other end, doing what they can to avoid playing in highly volatile contests.

Fortunately for the Canadiens, their front line will be able to keep them competitive in their series against Buffalo, exploiting a Sabres back line who also ranks below league average in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Especially with their back line conceding a high volume of Shots on Goal in front of their crease, sitting in the bottom ten in Expected Goals Against From High Danger Shots.

With both front lines in a position to thrive, expect game one to feature a heavy volume of Shots on Goal in front of each other’s net, shading value towards the full game over. To help increase your risk, escalator bet the total by placing smaller wagers on the alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Best Bet, Pick & Prediction

Best Bet: Over 5.5 (-113)
Score Prediction: Sabres 4, Canadiens 2

Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Game Odds

Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Game Information

Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Network: TNT
Location: Buffalo, New York
Venue: KeyBank Center – 6.5 goals per game; 21-21-2 O/U
Series Score: Tied 0-0

Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Betting Resources

Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres Key Players

Montreal Canadiens

Cole Caufield – Last Game: (0 Goals, 0 Assists, 1 Shot on Goal)
Nick Suzuki – Last Game: (1 Goal, 0 Assists, 3 Shots on Goal)
Jakub Dobes – Last Game: (1 Goal Against, 28 Saves)

Buffalo Sabres

Tage Thompson – Last Game: (0 Goals, 2 Assists, 5 Shots on Goal)
Jason Zucker – Last Game: (0 Goals, 0 Assists, 1 Shot on Goal)
Alex Lyon – Last Game: (1 Goal Against, 25 Saves)

Photo Credit: AP/Chris O’Meara

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.