Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 7 Preview, Picks & Odds for Sunday, May 3, 2026

By Kody Malstrom | May 02, 2026, 9:01pm

The best two words in all of sports, game seven. A fitting conclusion for the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montral Canadiens who have gone toe to toe since the start of the playoffs. Tampa Bay got the best of Montreal in game six, securing the win in overtime to help extend the series.

While their 1-0 finish makes it look like it was a defensive slugfest, it was actually the opposite as the two foes combined for over seven Expected Goals. Fitting enough, their result in Expected Goals was also close with the Lightning edging out the Canadiens 3.69-3.68. With positive regression looming over both front lines, expect game seven to be a high scoring affair, clearing the over in the process.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Analysis

Since the start of the regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning front line were one of the more efficient units in the league, ranking fourth in Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. The high level of play they received from their top two lines played a major role in their success, fielding five players who average more than 0.30 Expected Goals per game.

Unfortunately for the Lightning, their front line has been unable to build on their momentum in the playoffs, struggling to convert their Shots on Goal into goals put up on the board. Even though they have been unable to score at the same pace they did in the regular season, the Lightning have still been able to pressure the Canadiens net at a high rate, generating nearly four Expected Goals in game six.

More stunning yet, the Canadiens have been able to match their output, breaking through a Lightning back line who resides near the top of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Cole Caufield’s aggression has helped consistently shift their coverage, opening up wider shooting lanes for his linemates to exploit which has forced Andrei Vasilevskiy to scramble across the crease.

Speaking of Vasilevskiy, he has shown why he is one of the top contenders for the Vezina Trophy award, averaging 2.20 Goals Against per game and a .905 Save Percentage six games into the playoffs. Jakub Dobes has been able to keep pace with the Lightning goalie, conceding just 2.19 Goals Against while generating a higher Save Percentage.

Even though both goaltenders have been able to hold their ground, it’s hard to envision them sustaining their high level of play while both back lines continue to allow their opponents to pressure their net at a high rate. Especially with wear and tear rearing its ugly head deep into the series, affecting the speed of their cuts across the ice, opening up larger gaps beside them.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Best Bet, Pick & Prediction

Best Bet: Over 5.5 (+120)
Score Prediction: Lightning 4, Canadiens 2

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game Odds

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game Information

Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
Network: TNT
Location: Tampa, Florida
Venue: Benchmark International Arena – 6 goals per game; 19-20-4 O/U
Series Score: Tied 3-3

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Resources

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Key Players

Montreal Canadiens

Cole Caufield – Last Game: (0 Goals, 0 Assists, 4 Shots on Goal)
Nick Suzuki – Last Game: (0 Goals, 0 Assists, 0 Shots on Goal)
Jakob Dubes – Last Game: (1 Goal Against, 32 Saves)

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov – Last Game: (0 Goals, 0 Assists, 6 Shots on Goal)
Jake Guentzel – Last Game: (0 Goals, 0 Assists, 3 Shots on Goal)
Andrei Vasilevskiy – Last Game: (0 Goals Against, 30 Saves)

Photo Credit: AP/Chris O’Meara

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.