Saturday’s Final Four Gameday Guide: Preview, Betting Lines & Analysis
Just when it looked like Sunday’s Elite Eight games were going to be a clunker, UConn shocked the nation by clawing their way out of a 19 point deficit, beating Duke with a last second heave from three. A stunning collapse, especially when factoring in how poor UConn looked for a majority of the contest.
With their win, the Huskies now face off against Illinois in the Final Four who arguably possess the best offense in the nation. A high powered and efficient unit, the Fighting Illini have been able to overwhelm their opponents with their size and length which has helped them generate high quality shots near the rim at a consistent rate.
Later in the night, a pair of one seeds look to stamp their ticket to the National Championship with the Michigan Wolverines battling it out against the Arizona Wildcats. A highly anticipated matchup as both teams have swapped places for first in Net Rating throughout the year, pitting two of the best teams in the nation against each other.
Saturday’s Final Four Schedule
- No. 3 Illinois , vs. No. 2 UConn – 6:09 p.m./TBS | Preview
- No. 1 Michigan , vs. No. 1 Arizona – 8:49 p.m./TBS | Preview
Saturday’s Final Four Game Odds
With Michigan and Arizona backing their success on their ability to defend the interior, expect points to come at a premium with every shot in the paint getting smothered. This will force both offenses to rely heavier on their perimeter shooting, an area of the floor both have neglected which may throw them off their rhythm, leading to prolonged scoring lulls.
Illinois vs UConn Game Odds & Analysis
Since the start of the NCAA Tournament, Illinois has arguably been the most impressive team in the field, making quick work of every opponent they faced en route to the Final Four. Their offense has played a major role in their success, fielding a lineup who ranks in the top-5 in Adjusted Offensive Rating, Off Rebound Rate, and in Havoc Allowed.
Against UConn, the Fighting Illini will be able to build on their momentum by taking advantage of a Huskies defense who struggles on the glass, allowing their opponents to extend their possessions by securing Offensive Rebounds. Their displacement of physicality will also lead to an uptick in Illinois’ total number of Free Throws, exploiting a group who ranks 307th in Free Throw Rate.
Michigan vs Arizona Game Odds & Analysis
The hype is as high as it can get leading into Saturday night with two of the best teams in the nation set to face off. Heading into the tournament, Michigan and Arizona both fit the mold as potential contenders capable of winning it all per historic Kenpom metrics, possessing an Adjusted Offensive Rating higher than 112.0 and an Adjusted Defensive Rating lower than 94.0.
With both defenses ranking in the top-2 in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage, nearly every shot will have a defender near the vicinity of the attempt. Michigan and Arizona also both excel on the glass, leading to an uptick in one and done possessions on both ends of the court, resulting in scoring droughts which shades value towards the full game under.
Updated National Championship Odds
As expected, Michigan and Arizona sit comfortably at the top of the oddsboard for the National Championship with UConn and Illinois rounding out the four. While the Huskies have managed to quietly fit the mold as a championship contender per historic Kenpom metrics, the Fighting Illini sit outside the cutline due to their defense possessing an Adjusted Defensive Rating of 97.4.
With the Wolverines and Wildcats in a tier of their own, you can place a wager on both teams to win the title with zero intentions of hedging, securing a profit as long as one of the two win it all. If you believe the Fighting Illini will overpower the Huskies, then you can increase your risk by betting on an Exacta, splitting a wager in half with each piece being placed on Michigan Over Illinois and Arizona over Illinois.
Final Four Players to Watch
Arguably one of the more productive guards in the field, Arizona’s Brayden Burries has been the engine for their offense, averaging 16.1 Points per game while shooting 40.2% from three and 50.0% from the floor. With the Wildcats expected to lean heavier on their perimeter shooting, Burries will need to continue to pull defensive attention towards him, freeing up more space for his secondary scorers around the three point line.
Rivaling Burries is Yaxel Lendeborg, a dynamic forward for the Wolverines who is listed as one of the betting favorites to win the Final Four Most Outstanding Player award. Lendeborg’s versatility has been one full display this season, averaging 15.2 Points, 7.0 Rebounds, and 3.3 Assists per game while shooting 52.0% from the field.
Saturday’s Final Four Best Bet, Pick, Predictions
Even with the court littered by stars who are all capable of creating their own shot at multiple levels of the floor, negative regression looms large over Michigan and Arizona with both defenses in peak form. Even with the two preferring to play at a fast pace, their transition defense will stop each other in their tracks, allowing their defense to get set up in a half court set.
When halted, breaking away from each other’s suffocating coverage will be a chore, especially in the interior with both units residing near the top of the board in Opposing Two Point Completion Percentage. Even with both teams creating Havoc at a low rate, the uptick in stalled out possessions will help push the total towards the under.
Score Prediction: Michigan 78, Arizona 75
Best Bet: Under 157.5
Photo Credit: AP/Rick Scuteri
