Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Game 3 Preview, Picks & Odds for Friday, April 24, 2026

By Kody Malstrom | Apr 23, 2026, 7:13pm

After beating the Tampa Bay Lightning in stunning fashion in game one, the Montreal Canadiens almost pulled it off again, losing to them in overtime in game two. While it did result in a loss, the Canadiens have figured out how to attack the Lightning back line, generating 3.15 Expected Goals.

Every bit of their production is needed just to ward off Tampa Bay, needing to match their front line who is capable of snapping out of their slump at a moments notice. Especially with their defense struggling in coverage, residing near the bottom of the board in most defensive metrics. With positive regression looming over the Lightning, expect game three to turn into a high scoring affair, creating the perfect opportunity to escalator bet the full game total.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Betting Analysis

When firing on all cylinders, the Canadiens front line have been one of the more productive units in the league, ranking above league average in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Cole Caufield has helped spark their turnaround this season, averaging 0.42 Expected Goals and 3.19 Shots on Goal per game.

Against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Canadiens have been able to space out their suffocating coverage, beating them in Expected Goals in their loss in game two. When spread thin, the width of the Canadiens shooting lanes in front of the net have widened, drastically improving the quality of their Shots on Goal which forces Andrei Vasilevskiy to scramble between the pipes.

Unfortunately for the Canadiens, their back is incapable of giving them the production they need to be a well rounded unit, residing near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. With their back line severely struggling in coverage, the Canadiens are forced to play in highly volatile contests, making it hard for them to pull away on the scoreboard to secure the win.

Even though the Lightning front line have struggled to get out of the gate in games one and two, this is still an explosive unit capable of rounding back into form at a moments notice, a group who ranks fourth in Expected Goals For. Their versatility has played a major role in their success this season, fielding six players who average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.

Desperately needing to avoid falling into a hole while on the road, expect the Lightning front line to snap out of their cold stretch of play and pressure the Canadiens net at a higher rate. With the Canadiens capable of matching their output, expect game three to turn into a shootout, shading value towards the full game over.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Best Bet, Pick & Prediction

Best Bet: Over 5.5 (+115)
Score Prediction: Lightning 4, Canadiens 2

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Game Information

Date: Friday, April 24, 2026
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Network: TNT
Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Venue: Bell Centre – 6.4 goals per game; 22-17-2 O/U
Series Score: Tied 1-1

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Betting Resources

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Key Players

Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov – Last Game: (1 Goal, 0 Assists, 5 Shots on Goal)
Jake Guentzel – Last Game: (0 Goals, 1 Assist, 4 Shots on Goal)
Andrei Vasilevskiy – Last Game: (2 Goals Against, 25 Saves)

Montreal Canadiens

Cole Caufield – Last Game: (0 Goals, 1 Assist, 1 Shots on Goal)
Nick Suzuki – Last Game: (0 Goals, 1 Assist, 2 Shots on Goal)
Jakub Dobes – Last Game: (3 Goals Against, 31 Saves)

Photo Credit: AP/Chris O’Meara

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.