Thursday’s First Round Gameday Guide: March Madness Preview, Picks & Analysis

By Kody Malstrom | Mar 18, 2026, 7:53pm

Thursday’s slate signals the start of the round of 64 with 16 jam packed games that will have us glued to our televisions for the full duration of the day. TCU and Ohio State get the honors of kicking things off this year, followed by Troy and Nebraska who will tip off shortly after them.

The Michigan Wolverines who are projected to be one of the top contenders in this year’s field per their odds to win the championship will also start their run, facing off against the winner of UMBC and Howard in the first four. While UMBC is famous for their upset over Virginia in 2018, it’s hard to envision them pulling it off again.

For those who are into upsets, VCU faces off against North Carolina who will be without Caleb Wilson and look like a shell of their former selves after an embarrassing loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament. With the Rams playing well on both ends of the court, they may be able to take advantage of the injury riddled Tar Heels and move on to the round of 32.

Other than VCU, upsets may be on the back burner this year as the talent gap between the upper tier and long shots is as wide as ever. Still, one hot shooting night can flip the script in a hurry, giving the underdog the momentum they need to generate a stunning victory.

Thursday First Round Locations & Schedule

Below is a list of today’s games sorted by location, tip-off time, and tv channel.

Games at Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, South Carolina)

Arena Stats (entering day): 133 points per game

TCU , vs. Ohio State – 12:15pm ET. (CBS) | Preview
Siena vs. Duke , – 2:50pm ET. (CBS) | Preview
VCU vs. North Carolina , – 6:50pm ET. (TNT) | Preview
Penn vs. Illinois , – 9:25pm ET. (TNT) | Preview

Games at Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, Oklahoma)

Arena Stats (entering day): 161 points per game

Troy vs. Nebraska , – 12:40pm ET. (truTV) | Preview
McNeese vs. Vanderbilt , – 3:15pm ET. (truTV) | Preview
Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s , – 7:35pm ET. (truTV) | Preview
Idaho vs. Houston , – 10:10pm ET. (truTV) | Preview

Games at KeyBank Center (Buffalo, New York)

Arena Stats (entering day): n/a

USF vs. Louisville , – 1:30pm ET. (TNT) | Preview
North Dakota State vs. Michigan State , – 4:05pm ET. (TNT) | Preview
Howard vs. Michigan , – 7:10pm ET. (CBS) | Preview
Saint Louis vs. Georgia , – 9:45pm ET. (CBS) | Preview

Games at Moda Center (Portland, Oregon)

Arena Stats (entering day): 173 points per game

High Point vs. Wisconsin , – 1:50pm ET. (TBS) | Preview
Hawaii vs. Arkansas , – 4:25pm ET. (TBS) | Preview
Texas vs. BYU , – 7:25pm ET. (TBS) | Preview
Kennesaw State vs. Gonzaga , – 10:00pm ET. (TBS) | Preview

TCU vs. Ohio State Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: In what could be Bruce Thornton’s final year, the Ohio State guard will have to deal with TCU’s physicality if he wants to help the Buckeyes advance, facing off against a defense who ranks in the top-50 in Havoc. Setting a scoring pace too fast for the Horned Frogs to keep up with is vital, masking their own struggles on the back end with their defense ranking near dead last in Disruptions.

Troy vs. Nebraska Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: Quietly one of the few teams capable of winning it all per historic Kenpom metrics, Nebraska starts their run with a favorable matchup against Troy who severely underwhelms on defense. A level of play that will hurt them in their efforts of generating an upset as the Cornhuskers currently rank in the top-60 in Adjusted Offensive Rating, Turnovers Allowed, and in Effective Field Goal Percentage.

South Florida vs. Louisville Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: One of the more intriguing upsets to watch for, South Florida heads into the tournament very well rounded, ranking in the top-70 in Adjusted Offensive and in Defensive Rating. Should Louisville’s defense continue to struggle to create Havoc, then the Bulls will be able to attack the middle at a high rate, increasing their chances of keeping it close on the scoreboard.

High Point vs. Wisconsin Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: A very interesting clash of styles, High Point’s high powered offense faces off against Wisconsin who ranks near dead last in Disruptions and in Fouls Allowed. If the Panthers can take advantage of their underwhelming coverage, then they are in a great position to secure the win and move on to the round of 32.

Siena vs. Duke Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: Even while dealing with injuries, the Duke Blue Devils are still in a tier of their own, ranking in the top-5 in Adjusted Offensive and in Defensive Efficiency. Siena lacks the production on defense that is needed to slow down Cameron Boozer and their high powered offense, making them vulnerable to falling quickly behind on the scoreboard with no hope of erasing the deficit.

McNeese vs. Vanderbilt Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: One of the bigger surprises on Sunday, Vanderbilt falling to a five seed was shocking when stacking their resume up with the rest of the three and four seeds. To send a message to the committee, Vanderbilt will have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard on Thursday, taking advantage of a McNeese defense who ranks near dead last in Opposing Three Point Completion Percentage and in Def Rebound Percentage.

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: When it comes to beating Michigan State, you need to limit their transition scoring opportunities and hold them into halfcourt sets. Unfortunately for North Dakota State, they field one of the worst defenses in the field, ranking outside the top-250 in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage, Defensive Rebound Percentage, and in Opposing Free Throw Rate.

Hawaii vs. Arkansas Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: At some point, Arkansas’s lack of defensive production will come back to bite them as their struggles in coverage brings in a high amount of variance into their contests. In their first round matchup against Hawaii, expect the Razorbacks to continue to skate by, facing off against an offense who resides in the bottom half of the board in Turnovers Allowed and in Three Point Completion Percentage.

VCU vs. North Carolina Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: As previously mentioned, North Carolina limps into the tournament, sorely missing Caleb Wilson who has been ruled out for the remainder of the season. Without Wilson, the Tar Heels have regressed on offense, shining the light brighter on their defense who ranks near dead last in Havoc. Expect VCU to take advantage of their low level of play on both ends of the court, sparking a potential run in the bracket.

Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: Another interesting clash of styles, Texas A&M’s fast paced tempo may run into a wall in their matchup against Saint Mary’s, a Gaels squad who prefers to play at one of the slowest paces in the nation. Depending who establishes the pace may dictate who wins their first round matchup, especially with both defenses struggling to play at a competitive level.

Howard vs. Michigan Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: Even though Michigan’s first round opponent has not been decided yet, you can pencil them into the next round as UMBC and Howard both lack the talent that is needed to slow down the Wolverines. Their size and length can slow down any offense, as well as help them break out of a scoring lull by relentlessly attacking the paint.

Texas vs. BYU Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: BYU may find themselves in two drastically different game scripts depending on who wins between Texas and NC State in the first four. While the Longhorns have severely underwhelmed on defense this year, the Wolfpack are more well rounded, ranking in the top-100 in Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Net Rating.

Penn vs. Illinois Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: It may be a long night for Penn as their defense faces off against Illinois who currently leads the league in Adjusted Offensive Rating. With Penn struggling in coverage per their below league average marks in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage and in Efficiency, the Fighting Illini will face zero resistance in their efforts of attacking the rim, making it near impossible for the Quakers to match their output.

Saint Louis vs. Georgia Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: Arguably the most dangerous nine seed in the tournament, Saint Louis fields a well rounded unit, ranking well above league average in overall Efficiency. Should their offense be able to cut back on their Turnovers, then the Billikens will have a great opportunity to exploit Georgia’s struggles in coverage, attacking a defense who ranks outside the top-100 in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage.

Kennesaw State vs. Gonzaga Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: Even though Gonzaga is heavily reliant on their ability to attack the rim, Kennesaw State will not be able to stretch them out, ranking well below league average in Opposing Two Point Completion Percentage. While this may lead to an easy win for the Zags in the first round, they will be vulnerable to getting sent home early if they can not find any production from the perimeter.

Idaho vs. Houston Game Odds & Notes

Game Note: After losing to Florida in last year’s National Championship, the Houston Cougars look to get their revenge this season, kicking things off with a favorable matchup against Idaho in the first round. Their high level of play on defense will be on full display, suffocating a Vandals offense who ranks outside the top-150 in Adjusted Offensive Rating and in Effective Field Goal Percentage.

Thursday First Round Best Bet

While I debated going with VCU, their spread has steamed the other way, making it worth waiting to see how high they climb before placing a wager. That shifts my attention towards Duke as their offense will be able to light up the scoreboard against Siena, punishing a defense who ranks in the bottom half of the board in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and in Opposing Three Point Completion Percentage.

Best Bet: Duke Team Total Over (Best Odds Below)

Photo Credit: AP/Nell Redmond

Kody Malstrom

Kody is a professional sports bettor and sports betting journalist with eight years of experience in the industry. He covers a wide range of sports, including NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, and UFC. What started as a side gig has turned into a full time job, spending a majority of his time staring at odds screens and market movement. When away from the computer, Kody enjoys spending his time outdoors relaxing at the beach or golfing with friends.