Top March Madness Upsets to Watch for on Friday, March 20, 2026

By Richard Janvrin | Mar 19, 2026, 9:02pm

The first day of the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament is in the books, and now it’s time to look ahead to the second round to finalize all of the Round of 32 matchups.

Below, I have three upsets for this slate. A No. 12 over a prominent No. 5, and one of the most well-known college basketball programs falling to a team that hasn’t been in the tournament since 1996.

Check out the upsets below.

Top March Madness Upsets for Friday

UNI (+10.5) Over Saint John’s
Santa Clara (+3.5) Over Kentucky
Akron (+8.5) Over Texas Tech

UNI Over Saint John’s

St. John’s has had a stellar season, and they took down UConn in the Big East Tournament championship, beating them 72-52. Now, as the No. 5 seed, they have a bit of a challenge ahead of them against Northern Iowa.

The Panthers are coming off a Missouri Valley title and have won five straight, including the tournament. Their offense isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, ranking 153rd in offensive efficiency (110.0), but they do have some scoring threats, such as Trey Campbell, who’s shooting 53.1% on 2-point shots and averaging 13.7 points per game, and Leon Bond III, who’s shooting 36.5% from beyond the arc and averaging 11.9 points per game.

Overall, five players are averaging 9.1 points per game or more, and as a team, they’re 52nd in the nation in 2-point shooting (55.3%).

However, where I think they can cause problems for St. John’s are two areas: Pace of play and defense. Northern Iowa is one of the four slowest teams in the country, averaging just 65.3 possessions per game. That ranks 362nd out of 365 teams. Defensively, they’re 24th in defensive efficiency (98.2), and they hold teams to just 28.9% from beyond the arc.

There’s a chance that Northern Iowa slows the game down and limits St. John’s from beyond the arc enough to cover the spread and potentially win outright.

Santa Clara Over Kentucky

Any time you’re taking on a team with the pedigree of the Kentucky Wildcats, that in and of itself is going to be a part of the game to overcome, but I think the Santa Clara Broncos, Steve Nash’s alma mater, can get it done.

One of the best aspects of Santa Clara’s game as a team is their willingness to pass the ball. They’re 35th in the country in assists, averaging 16.6 per game. None of the players is averaging a ton of assists per game, but six are averaging 1.8 or more.

Something else to watch out for is their offense in general. They’re 23rd in offensive efficiency (123.6), and average 82.8 points per game (29th). They shine in 2-point buckets, shooting 56.5%, and their 3-point shooting percentage has improved lately, rising to 36.8% over their last three games.

In their most recent game, they lost to Gonzaga but led at halftime, and Christian Hammond put up 24 points. He leads the team in points per game with 15.8, but three other players are averaging double-digit points.

Defensively, the Broncos aren’t too shabby either, ranking 82nd in defensive efficiency (104.2). They’re decent against 3-point shots, holding opponents to 33% (117th).

Don’t get me wrong, but the Broncos are far from a shoo-in, but with Hammond, their offense, their willingness to pass the ball around, and a passable defense, an upset could be brewing for a blueblood program like Kentucky.

Akron Over Texas Tech

Anytime a lineup is full of senior talent, they’ll have my attention, and that’s Akron. They have six seniors and three juniors, and the leader of their team is guard Tavari Johnson, who averages 20.1 points per game and shoots 37.3% from beyond the arc. They also have Amani Lyles, Shammah Scott, and Evan Mahaffey, who average double-digit points.

As a result, Akron is 54th in offensive efficiency (118.8) and averages 86.9 points per game, which is seventh in college basketball.

Not only that, but this is one of the better shooting squads in the country, ranking 14th or better in 3-point (38.5%) and 2-point (59.1%) shooting percentage.

What I worry about Texas Tech is their pacing. They average 69.7 possessions per game, which is 226th in college basketball. They may need to pick up the pace a bit to compete with Akron’s scoring. Still, they are one of the better teams analytically, ranking 12th in offensive efficiency (125.0) and 33rd in defensive efficiency (99.8).

Something else to think about is that Texas Tech does attempt 29.3 3-point shots per game (18th), but Akron, which typically allows an eye-popping 38.5% of them to fall, has been much better lately, holding opponents to 31.7% from beyond the arc over its last three games.

The Red Raiders will be a tough out, but Akron has veteran talent that won’t go away quietly

Photo Credit: AP/Jeff Roberson

Richard Janvrin

While attending the University of New Hampshire and pursuing a degree in English/Journalism, Richard Janvrin landed his first paid writing role, creating fantasy football and NFL content for Bleacher Report. After three years with the company, he expanded into the sports betting and iGaming space as legalized online wagering grew across the United States. Richard’s first role in the sports betting/iGaming industry came with Gambling.com, where he continues to contribute today. What began as a side hustle eventually turned into a full-time freelance career, leading to opportunities with outlets such as The Game Day, BetMGM, Forbes, LegalSportsReport, Lineups, and Pro Football Focus, among others. With more than a decade of professional writing experience, Richard has covered a wide range of topics, including sportsbook and casino reviews, prediction analysis, emerging prediction markets, and lottery coverage. His goal is to present complex subjects in a clear, engaging, and easy-to-understand format for readers of all experience levels.