Top March Madness Upsets to Watch for on Thursday, March 19, 2026

By Richard Janvrin | Mar 18, 2026, 9:53pm

Well, here we go – it’s time for March Madness. The first round begins at 12:15 pm ET when TCU and Ohio State square off. One of the most thrilling parts of March Madness is the upsets, and from this round on, we know they’ll happen, but which teams will be the ones doing the upsetting?

Below are three upsets to watch for today, including a No. 14 seed over one of the most prestigious and respected college basketball programs in the country.

Top March Madness Upsets for Thursday

North Dakota State (+16.5) Over Michigan State
McNeese (+11.5) Over Vanderbilt
USF (+4.5) Over Louisville

North Dakota State (+16.5) Over Michigan State

Don’t let the prestige of the Spartans or the fact that this is a No. 3 versus a No. 14 fool you—this game will be closer than you’d expect.

The Spartans are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, averaging 39.8 per game. They’re also fantastic at getting offensive rebounds, too, averaging 11.2 per game (26th). However, North Dakota State has two big bodies in Treyson Anderson and Noah Feddersen, and they, along with the rest of the team, allow offensive rebounds on just 25.7% of their opponents’ shot attempts. As a team, North Dakota State isn’t too far behind the Spartans in rebounds either, averaging 36.6 per game.

North Dakota State ranks 124th in both offensive (111.7) and defensive (106.6) efficiency, while the Spartans rank 24th in offensive (123.0) and 13th in defensive (94.7). That said, Michigan State is coming off two tough losses to Michigan, getting swept by them in the regular season in more than a decade, and UCLA in their first and only Big Ten Tournament game. Also, going back to NDSU’s offense, they have five players who shoot 36.9% better from 3-point range and average at least three 3-point shots per game.

One of the key problems with Michigan State is they commit a few too many turnovers, averaging 11.5 per game. Meanwhile, opponents turn the ball over against North Dakota State 12.9 times per game, which is 39th in the country. Spartans star guard Jeremy Fears Jr. averages 2.3 turnovers per game.

With how wishy-washy Michigan State has been recently, along with North Dakota State likely to compete with them on the glass and some turnover concerns, yes, a lot needs to go right, but the Spartans should be on upset alert.

Best Odds: North Dakota State

McNeese (+11.5) Over Vanderbilt

McNeese had a nice upset last year, downing No. 5 Clemson 69-67. While they have a new head coach in Bill Armstrong who came over from Baylor, and only a few players from last year, they’re still a team I think is capable of doing some upsets.

The first thing I think of when I think of McNeese is their ability to create turnovers. Opponents turn the ball over to them 16.5 times per game, which is second-most in the country. As a result, they lead the country in extra scoring chances per game with 7.9.

Analytically, McNeese is 91st in offensive efficiency (114.3) and 49th in defensive efficiency (101.8). They have three players averaging double-digit points, led by Larry Johnson’s 17.5 points per game and 58.4% shooting on 2-point shots.

That said, I know, I know, Vanderbilt is really good. They’re seventh in offensive efficiency (126.8) and 31st in defensive efficiency (99.3). They have Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, who light up the scoreboard, and Tyler Nickel isn’t too far behind them.

McNeese would need some things to fall their way, but they have some scoring threats,s and they also create a lot of turnovers. Even if McNeese doesn’t get the win, they should cover at +11.5.

Best Odds: McNeese

USF (+4.5) Over Louisville

According to KenPom, South Florida is a top-50 team in the country (No. 47), so they’re a more than competent squad to take down Louisville, which ranks 19th in those same rankings. Louisville is coming off a loss to Miami, but in addition to that game, they’re 3-3 over their last six contests.

As for South Florida, they’re AAC champions and haven’t lost since January 31. They’re 61st in offensive efficiency (117.3) and average 87 points per game, which is sixth in all of college basketball. Five of their players are averaging 11.1 points or more, led by Wes Enis, who averages 16.8. He shoots 36.5% from beyond the arc.

Defensively, South Florida is 40th in defensive efficiency (100.9). Louisville is 18th in the country in points per game (84.8), but there’s one key metric where I think Louisville could have some trouble, and that’s on 2-point shots.

Louisville shoots 59.7% on 2-point shots (ninth). While their 3-point shooting rate is far higher than their 2-point shooting rate, Louisville shoots 35.7% from beyond the arc (77th). Defensively, though, South Florida is holding teams to just 46.7% on 2-point shots, and over their last three games, they’re holding teams to 24.4% from beyond the arc.

South Florida has been playing solid defense lately and has numerous scoring options. The Cardinals have Mikel Brown Jr. (whose status is still up in the air) and Ryan Conwell, yes, but South Florida is well-rounded and is one of the better No. 11 seeds. Don’t sleep on them.

Best Odds: USF

Photo Credit: AP/Ryan Sun

Richard Janvrin

While attending the University of New Hampshire and pursuing a degree in English/Journalism, Richard Janvrin landed his first paid writing role, creating fantasy football and NFL content for Bleacher Report. After three years with the company, he expanded into the sports betting and iGaming space as legalized online wagering grew across the United States. Richard’s first role in the sports betting/iGaming industry came with Gambling.com, where he continues to contribute today. What began as a side hustle eventually turned into a full-time freelance career, leading to opportunities with outlets such as The Game Day, BetMGM, Forbes, LegalSportsReport, Lineups, and Pro Football Focus, among others. With more than a decade of professional writing experience, Richard has covered a wide range of topics, including sportsbook and casino reviews, prediction analysis, emerging prediction markets, and lottery coverage. His goal is to present complex subjects in a clear, engaging, and easy-to-understand format for readers of all experience levels.