UEFA Champions League Match Betting Previews, Odds & Analysis for Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Arsenal are set to host Atletico Madrid at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday afternoon for the return leg of the Champions League semifinal. The two clubs will meet in North London, after a 1-1 draw in Spain’s capital last Wednesday.

Mikel Arteta’s club will have the opportunity to advance to the Champions League final for the first time in 20 years. The English Premier League’s top club enters this midweek clash after a pivotal 3-0 victory over Fulham on Saturday afternoon.

Atletico Madrid also managed to pick up a win in La Liga this past weekend. Diego Simeone’s club beat Valencia 2-0, despite the Argentinian manager rotating much of the squad with this pivotal second leg looming.

Will Arsenal finally make it over the hump? Or will Atletico continue its Cinderella run to the UCL Final against all odds? Let’s break down our Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid prediction and best bet below.

Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League Schedule

• Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid- 3:00 p.m./Paramount+

Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid Odds & Analysis

The first leg played out exactly as anticipated, with both teams scoring only from the penalty spot, and quality chances coming at a premium throughout.

These teams mirrored each other for much of the first half, with Arsenal having just 2% more possession than the hosts and one more shot over the first 45 minutes. As halftime approached, it appeared these clubs would head into the dressing room with things knotted up 0-0.

That was before a senseless challenge by David Hancko in the 42nd minute sent Viktor Gyokeres to the spot where he converted his first penalty of this Champions League campaign. Arsenal’s Summer signing has the second-highest G/A (6) for the Gunners in the UCL.

Atletico Madrid came out of the dressing room looking much sharper, and it wasn’t long before Simeone’s squad would equalize. Arsenal’s defense was immediately under far more pressure, and Atleti managed to take five shots within 10 minutes of the second half. For context, Atletico had five shots in the entire first half.

One of these shots early on in the second half would end up being blocked by Arsenal’s right back, Benjamin White. After a VAR check, the referee concurred that the ball had hit the English defender’s hand in the penalty area, ruling in favor of Atletico Madrid.

This ruling sent Argentine striker Julian Alvarez to the penalty spot, where he casually slotted a ball past David Raya before the keeper could even react.

Atletico continued to push for more goals in the second half, but ultimately was unable to break the stout Arsenal defense. Simeone’s squad would finish the contest with three big chances created and a 2.21 xG, but only one goal to show for it.

Alvarez and co. will now need a strong offensive showing on the road, something they’ve been accustomed to throughout this UCL run. Atleti has scored 7 goals in the knockout rounds as the away team. Alvarez has scored three of those on his own and is certainly in the best form of his career heading into the second leg.

They now travel to Emirates Stadium, the grounds in which Arsenal has conceded just three goals in the UCL this season, and none in the knockout stages of the tournament. The Gunners remain unbeaten in Europe and enter the return leg as significant favorites to advance past Atleti to the Champions League final.

This chess match between two elite teams will come down to the wire; however, it is safe to assume Atleti won’t be silenced for the entire second leg. While Arsenal will likely advance, we’re backing Atletico Madrid’s away form for our best bet in the Champions League semifinals.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score +100

Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League DFS Picks

Take a look at Tuesday’s DFS lineup for Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid in the Champions League semifinals.

Alvarez captains the squad after another top performance for Atleti’s number 19. The 26-year-old attacker has the fourth-highest G/A in the Champions League and, as previously mentioned, is in top form heading into this match. Alvarez finished the first leg with a goal from the penalty spot, 6 total shots with 2 on target, and 1 big chance created. Look for Simeone’s main man to produce with his squad on the ropes in a hostile environment.

Arsenal’s Raya gets the nod as our first flex option of the lineup. Raya is certainly in the conversation for the best goalkeepers in the world at the moment, and he showed this during the first leg. The Spanish keeper finished the contest making three saves, preventing 0.76 goals in the process. Raya should have no trouble repeating his solid performance at home on Tuesday.

Our second flex spot belongs to Atleti winger, Ademola Lookman. Lookman was responsible for missing what many considered the biggest chance in the first leg after creating a one-on-one with Raya directly in front of goal. Even so, the Nigerian attacker had a strong showing and will be a key piece in Simeone’s attack in this match.

Leandro Trossard makes our lineup after an impressive showing over the weekend in the EPL. The Belgian attacker came on as a substitute late in the second half of the first leg and could not have much impact in a short period. Arteta decided to roll with Trossard vs. Fulham, and the 31-year-old produced at a high rate on the left side of the pitch. Trossard finished Saturday’s match with 4 total shots and 1 assist on 2 big chances created. Look for Arteta to turn to the veteran attacker here after such a solid outing.

American midfielder Johnny Cardoso has been key for Simeone all season. The youngster makes our lineup as a solid budget option for just $4,000. Cardoso had great control of the midfield during last Wednesday’s contest and will be called upon once again here. The 24-year-old made 4 defensive contributions, winning half of his aerial and ground duels while also never being dribbled past in his 88 minutes on the pitch.

Our final selection for this lineup will be Arsenal’s Eberechi Eze, who came on midway through the second half in the first leg. The English attacking midfielder left a lasting impression in his 32-minute cameo last Wednesday. Eze had three key passes despite only having 30 touches of the ball in his short stint. Arteta also decided to start Eze over the weekend, and could use his creativity to help break the deadlock in this tie.

Photo Credit: AP/Manu Fernandez