UEFA Europa League Match Betting Previews, Odds & Analysis for Thursday, April 16, 2026

The Europa League quarterfinals are set to wrap up on Thursday, April 16, with all four games kicking off in the afternoon.

The first matchup of the day is the most lopsided of them all, with Freiburg set to travel to Spain with a three-goal cushion over Celta Vigo. Celta and Freiburg kick the day off at 12:45 p.m. ET, with the Spanish side searching for a spark from their home fans if they want to have any chance of getting back into this tie.

The other three matches kick off simultaneously at 3:00 p.m. ET, headlined by the highly anticipated second leg between Nottingham Forest and Porto. Forest managed to escape the Estádio do Dragão with a 1-1 draw when these teams met just a week ago.

Similarly, Real Betis will feel good about their chances of advancing to the semifinals as they return to Spain with the aggregate score knotted up 1-1. Braga’s success early on in the first leg quickly fizzled out with the Portuguese side generating just two total shots in the second half of that game.

The final matchup of the day sees the tournament favorites, Aston Villa, return to England after handling business in Italy last week. Villa handily defeated Bologna 3-1 in the first leg of this quarterfinal tie.

Thursday’s UEFA Europa League Schedule

• Celta Vigo vs. Freiburg- 12:45 p.m./Paramount+
• Aston Villa vs. Bologna- 3:00 p.m./Paramount+
• Nottingham Forest vs. Porto- 3:00 p.m./Paramount+
• Real Betis vs. Braga- 3:00 p.m./Paramount+

Celta Vigo vs. Freiburg Odds & Analysis

Celta Vigo’s performance in the first leg was simply not up to par with the scoring output the club had shown in their recent matches. Claudio Giraldez’s club generated just four total shots with none on target in the first 90 minutes of this tie. This came against a Freiburg team that had allowed at least one goal in 10 straight matches leading up to the first leg.

Fans of the Spanish side would have hoped the first leg was a one-off bad performance for their club. However, another 3-0 loss, this time at home to Real Oviedo in La Liga over the weekend, validates what we saw when these teams met just a week ago.

On the other hand, Freiburg appears to be trending in the right direction after pulling off a big upset in the Bundesliga over the weekend. The German side defeated rivals Mainz 05 1-0 on the road as sizeable underdogs. The 1-0 victory marked the second straight clean sheet held by Julian Schuster’s club.

Freiburg will hope to do the same on Thursday afternoon. They enter the second leg of this Europa League tie as even larger underdogs, seeing as they won’t be too eager to score many more goals, if any at all.

You can expect Freiburg to sit comfortably at the back, and invite a Celta team that has struggled tremendously over their past two games, to try and make an improbable comeback from down three goals.

Best Bet: Celta Vigo Total Goals U1.5 (-120)

Aston Villa vs. Bologna Odds & Analysis

Aston Villa is simply on another tier compared to Bologna, and they proved that yet again during the first leg of this tie.

Villa has now defeated Bologna in three straight matches over the past two seasons, by an aggregate score of 6-1. Despite the scoreline being so one-sided, Bologna has statistically kept up with Villa – and even excelled in areas like possession and total shots against the Premier League club.

Where Villa’s true quality has shown is in not only creating chances, but having the ability to capitalize on said chances and convert them into goals. The first leg of this tie was a perfect example of this, where you see a team with 58% possession and 19 total shots compared to just 8, and assume that this was the team that won 3-1. This has been the case for Bologna in both games against Villa this season, yet the Italian club still finds itself on the brink of elimination barring a monumental comeback on Thursday afternoon.

Villa’s Unai Emery will likely follow a similar strategy and allow Bologna to have as much of the ball as they desire, knowing that a mistake is bound to happen, and his squad will more likely than not capitalize on it.

Nevertheless, Aston Villa enters this match with one foot already into the Europa League semifinals and should coast past Bologna with the support of their home fans at Villa Park.

Best Bet: Aston Villa & Over 1.5 Total Goals (-130)

Nottingham Forest vs. Porto Odds & Analysis

Nottingham Forest will look to eliminate Liga Portugal’s top team after last week’s consequential stalemate between the two.

Forest now holds the second-lowest odds, just under Aston Villa, to win the tournament. Last week’s draw was pivotal in the odds change, as Forest now has a chance to advance to the semifinals by simply winning this game at home.

However, Porto is not going to roll over just because they failed to win at home. Francesco Farioli’s squad likely feels like they were deserving of the win, and have been the better team with the first 90 minutes of the tie concluded. Many would argue that they are right.

Porto dominated much of the first leg, but similar to Bologna, struggled to put away their chances. The Dragões finished last week’s contest with 2.16 xG, 5 big chances created, and 8 shots on target, but just one goal to show for it. To make matters worse, Nottingham’s lone goal in this contest came via a bizarre own goal by Porto defender Martim Fernandes, who was simply trying to pass the ball back to his keeper.

This costly mistake masked Forest’s overall poor offensive output in this match, especially when compared to Porto’s. However, Vitor Pereira’s saving grace in this match came in the form of goalkeeper Stefan Ortega.

Ortega finished the match with 7 saves, preventing 1.98 goals in the process. The former Manchester City keeper essentially has his club in a prime position to advance to the semifinals due to last week’s performance.

Pereira will need more of this from his goalkeeper, as well as far more output from his attacking players if Forest is to advance as they’re expected to. However, despite what the odds say, I believe Porto finds a way to pull off the road upset at the City Ground and through into the semifinals.

The staggering difference in chances created in the first leg leads me to believe Porto will find a way to put the ball into the back of the net more efficiently this time around. Forest has not been convincing with their recent form by any stretch, and playing in front of their fans won’t make a difference in this match.

Best Bet: FC Porto To Advance (+115)

Real Betis vs. Braga Odds & Analysis

The final quarterfinal matchup sees Portuguese side Braga make the short voyage to take on Real Betis at the Estadio de la Cartuja in Sevilla.

Braga, like fellow Portuguese side Porto, will feel discouraged that they were unable to break the 1-1 stalemate in the first leg. However, unlike Porto and Nottingham Forest, Betis was far more competitive, and some would say “earned” the draw last week.

The two clubs were fairly evenly matched in the first leg, with Betis even outperforming the home side in total shots and shots on target despite seeing much less of the ball. Now Manuel Pellegrini’s squad will have the opportunity to advance to the Europa League semifinals in front of their home fans, where they have yet to lose in this competition thus far.

Braga won’t make things easy for Betis, as they too have yet to lose on the road in this competition. In fact, Braga conceded just one goal as the away team during the Europa League group stage in a 1-1 draw to Rangers back in November.

Betis will hope to repeat what they accomplished in the return leg of the Round of 16 vs. Panathinaikos. They returned home down a goal on aggregate, only to score four en route to a 4-1 victory in the tie.

It makes sense why Betis has the upper hand in this one odds-wise; however, it’s hard to imagine Braga won’t go down without a fight.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score Yes (-120)

Thursday’s UEFA Europa League DFS Picks

With both Luuk de Jong and Samu Aghehowa unavailable due to injury for Porto, William Gomes has stepped up big all season. The 20-year-old Brazilian scored Porto’s lone goal in the first leg and is now the club’s top goalscorer in this competition.

For our second forward option, we went with Betis’ lone goalscorer from the first leg, Cucho Hernandez. The Colombian striker has now scored in 3 of his last 4 Europa League games and has come up big for Pellegrini multiple times this season. With his club knocking on the door of the semifinals, Hernandez should find a way to deliver in this match.

In the midfield, we went with Aston Villa’s captain, John McGinn. The Scottish international is key to what Villa do, particularly on the right side of the pitch. McGinn has been solid for Emery both offensively and defensively, and will be an asset as his club looks to close the door on Bologna’s season.

Our final midfield selection is Porto’s Gabri Veiga. Veiga has been key to Porto’s success both domestically and in the Europa League. The 23-year-old Spaniard finished the first leg with an assist, as well as two big chances created and three defensive contributions.

We head back to Villa Park for our first defender, Ezri Konsa. Konsa is coming off a strong outing in the first leg, where the England international scored his first goal of the competition. Konsa

was also strong in defense and will be called on once again, with Bologna desperate to come back in this tie.

Our final defender in this lineup is the seasoned veteran Thiago Silva. Porto’s 41-year-old centerback is somehow still at the top of his game after so many years being one of the best at his position. Silva has been key to Porto’s defensive success all season, and still somehow manages to be a threat to score despite his old age.

We went with World Cup-winning goalkeeper, Aston Villa’s Emi Martinez. “El Dibu” has been one of the better keepers in world football for some time now. Martinez was solid in the first leg, finishing the game with three saves and nearly a clean sheet if not for Bologna’s 90th-minute goal. With how aggressively the Italian side is attacking, Dibu will likely face a good amount of pressure in this match, which he should have no trouble taking care of.

In the utility spot, we landed on Porto’s attacker, Borja Sainz. The 25-year-old Spaniard has had a solid season primarily playing on the left wing under Farioli. Sainz has been great at creating chances for others, but is not afraid to cut inside and shoot when given space. Sainz was a big reason Porto’s attack looked so dangerous in the first leg, and he should have a chance to redeem the lack of output in that match here.

Photo Credit: AP/Rui Vieira