World Cup Top Prediction Market Trades for Games on Sunday, June 21, 2026
It’s time for Day 11 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. We’ve got four games on tap for Sunday, June 21st. Spain faces Saudi Arabia at 12 p.m. ET, Belgium vs. Iran at 3 p.m. ET, Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde at 6 p.m. ET, and New Zealand vs. Egypt at 9 p.m. ET.
We’re going to dive into each matchup and then provide my favorite buys for the day.
With that in mind, let’s dive into our top prediction market trades for Sunday, June 21. Make sure to check out our World Cup match trends page for daily odds, insights, and betting data for each game.
Top Prediction Market Trades: Best World Cup Trades for Sunday, June 21
Spain to Win By More Than 2.5 Goals vs. Saudi Arabia: Yes (0.49¢ at Kalshi)
Spain is coming off a shocking 0-0 draw against Cabo Verde. They got a bit unlucky in that match, as even in a 0-0 draw, they still generated 2.1 expected goals. Expect them to put their foot on the gas as they push forward for three points vs. Saudi Arabia.
While the Saudis had a positive result in their opener in a 1-1 draw vs. Uruguay, they’re likely to be overmatched in this one. Expect Spain to start Lamine Yamal after bringing him on as a sub vs. Cabo Verde. That should make their attack much more formidable.
Truth be told, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a score line as lopsided as 4-0 in this match. Simply put, it’s an ideal bounce-back spot for Spain.
Belgium to Win vs. Iran (0.68¢ at Kalshi)
Belgium is coming off a hard-fought 1-1 draw against an underrated Egypt squad, while Iran had a 2-2 draw vs. New Zealand.
It was sloppy defending by Iran to concede two goals (1.2 expected goals) against a New Zealand side that was widely seen as one of the worst in the tournament. Don’t expect Belgium to play as disorganized.
The Red Devils need to secure three points after getting only one vs. Egypt, as they have their sights on winning this group in order to potentially have an easier path through the Round of 32. This is an expensive price, but it’s worth paying for on Belgium.
Uruguay/Cape Verde Over 2.5 Goals: No (0.60¢ at Kalshi)
Uruguay was underwhelming in a 1-1 draw vs. Saudi Arabia, while Cabo Verde proved tough to break down against tourney favorites Spain.
I don’t trust Uruguay to pay an expensive price on them to win here, so I prefer to go with the Under 2.5 goals. Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha has become a legend overnight. I expect them to build on this performance by putting a scare into Uruguay.
This has the look of another low-scoring game. To be honest, it wouldn’t shock me to see a draw. Uruguay has just not looked impressive at all, and there are rumblings of some tension internally.
Egypt to Win vs. New Zealand (0.61¢ at Kalshi)
Egypt impressed me in their draw vs. Belgium. That was a game they were expected to lose, yet they scored first and played very well defensively. This is an organized side that will look to take care of business vs. New Zealand.
While New Zealand earned a draw vs. Iran, that was against a side with a lot of off-field distractions, especially since they have to practice in Mexico and play in USA. That kind of travel can take a toll on a team, which is why I’m fading Iran vs. Belgium, and not putting as much stock into New Zealand’s draw against them.
With that in mind, I’m willing to buy this lofty price on Egypt to win. New Zealand is unlikely to have an answer for the likes of Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush.
Not in a Legal Sports Betting State? Consider Prediction Markets
If online sportsbooks aren’t available in your state, prediction markets provide an alternative way to engage with sporting events. Rather than wagering at fixed odds, users trade contracts linked to event results. The value of these contracts increases and decreases based on market activity and how likely traders believe a particular result is. Many platforms also let users close their positions before the event ends, allowing them to lock in gains or limit losses.
In recent years, platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Fanatics have expanded the range of markets they offer. Depending on the platform, users can trade contracts on everything from game results, championship winners, and player awards to elections and a variety of other real-world events.
Prediction markets differ from traditional sportsbooks in both how they operate and the regulations that govern them. Access depends on the specific platform and the user’s location, so availability isn’t the same everywhere. Before creating an account or participating, review the platform’s eligibility rules and terms of service to ensure it is available and permitted where you live.
Photo Credit: AP/Jacob Kupferman
