Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2020

The New Orleans Saints offense has been a fantasy friendly one for a long time. When Michael Thomas isn’t scoring the fantasy points, the offense generally will run through Alvin Kamara. It was a somewhat disappointing season for Alvin Kamara owners, because he was drafted as a top five pick, and finished 9th in PPR scoring among running backs. He missed two games, but didn’t look quite healthy even in the few games he played around his missed time. Kamara was still a big threat in the passing game with 91 targets, and averaged 17.9 points per game in PPR formats. If Kamara drops back down a few spots in drafts, he would become an excellent value. Kamara is still a PPR stud, and a tremendous talent. I will be drafting with confidence if given the chance.

2019 Recap

Alvin Kamara averaged the 8th most fantasy points per game in 2019, and has been one of the stronger PPR plays since coming into the league. Kamara averaged 5.7 receptions per game, which was giving you about a six fantasy point addition off receptions alone. We saw a truly high touchdown rate in 2018 where he had 18 touchdowns through the air on the ground. In 2017, he had 13 touchdowns. The six he had in 2019 was a downfall from the prior two seasons, and while I wouldn’t expect a return to 2018 numbers in terms of touchdowns, we should see a tick up. Kamara was still very productive, averaging 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, and he saw his usual receptions in 14 games and would have had a career high if he played the other two games.

2020 Projections

Looking at the projected running backs, Alvin Kamara’s upside is among the best of him. If this was the downside that we saw from Kamara last season, I feel pretty good about these projections. The overall touchdown numbers project to come back up to double-digits, and his usage in the red zone is a huge plus for him. He saw 16% of the targets in the passing game last season while in the red zone. It was at 28% the year prior, and he led the Saints in 2017.

Rushing Fantasy Points per Carry [2017-2019]
+ min. 80 rush attempts

1. Alvin Kamara, 2017 (1.00)
2. Aaron Jones, 2019 (0.92)
3. Aaron Jones, 2018 (0.91)
4. Alvin Kamara, 2018 (0.89)
4. Todd Gurley, 2018 (0.89)
6. Aaron Jones, 2017 (0.85)

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 28, 2019

ADP & Auction Value

ADP: Top Eight Pick

Auction Price: $50

Alvin Kamara was going as a top four pick, but he has a chance to make it to you if you are sitting in the 5th or 6th spot in drafts. This would be huge, but for those shying away from Kamara, I am going right back to the well. I expect the touchdowns to come back and his overall PPR value is still extremely high. The weekly floor was still there, it was just missing a touchdown on occasion. The range of outcomes for Kamara is still higher than most running backs. Overall his auction and ADP is still right on point for his worth, and that won’t change.

Floor

When we draft these top end names in the first round, we want a high floor. We saw a lot effect Saquon Barkley with an injury and a brutal Giants offense around him, yet he finished as a top eight back. Alvin Kamara was in the same boat, battled an injury and missed two games, but wasn’t healthy in games after. It was clear he wasn’t himself, and he still averaged 17 points per game this season and finished inside the top ten.

Ceiling

The way Alvin Kamara is used and his value in both the rushing and passing game, his ceiling is huge. The addition of Emmanuel Sanders might give him a slight tick down in receptions or targets, but not enough to derail his ceiling. A 300+ fantasy point season is certainly in his range of outcomes again, as we have seen in the first two seasons. A 15 touchdown year and 1,500 yards is going to be his ceiling, and factor in the fact he has 80 receptions in the first three seasons, Kamara’s ceiling is insanely strong.

New Orleans Saints Offense

New Orleans has been a lethal offense for a long time, and that didn’t change despite Alvin Kamara being banged up towards the end of the season, and Teddy Bridgewater stepping into play for a few games as well. Overall this group averaged 28.1 points per game, which was the 5th most in the league. They were top ten in yards per game and yards per play. The Saints still leaned on the pass, only rushing the ball 39 times per game, and averaging 24.8 rushing attempts, but Kamara’s usage in both areas of the offense negates those numbers. It helps that he has an extremely accurate quarterback throwing to him, and Kamara tends to catch everything thrown his way. The Saints controlled most of the possession last season, which was a part of their slower overall offense.

Strength Of Schedule

The schedule doesn’t matter a ton for me because of Kamara’s usage in both the run and the passing game. He also is involved in an offense that rarely gets shut down. Looking at his divisional games, Tampa Bay was the only strong run defense, where they made McCaffrey and Kamara look like average backs. Carolina is going to have a tough time regrouping, and Atlanta was a league average run defense as well. The Saints will play the NFC North, which featured two poorer run defenses, and two top run defenses. The Packers and Lions both struggled tremendously against opposing running backs last season, and not much has been done to change that so far. The Saints will play a first place schedule, which means they take on the Chiefs, 49ers, and Eagles. Although the Chiefs are a part of the AFC West schedule they face. So that means the Raiders and Broncos are on the schedule as well. Overall it is not a bad schedule for Kamara, and with maybe a few tougher matchups on the horizon, his role in the offense tends to carry him.