NFL Betting Predictions & Odds For Falcons vs. Commanders (11/27/22)

The Commanders and Falcons have a combined .500 record entering Thanksgiving week, which isn’t something anyone would’ve expected. Washington has a chance to climb into a playoff spot with a win over Atlanta on Sunday, but the Falcons still have playoff hopes of their own in a weak NFC South. Will we get more Taylor Heinicke magic?

Let’s make predictions, dive into the depth charts, and take a look at the odds ahead of Sunday’s matchup at FedEx Field.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders Odds

The Commanders are 4-point home favorites, entering at -200 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 42 points.

It’s somewhat jarring to see the Commanders as a relatively decisive favorite – at least for their standards – but it’s hard to deny how they’ve been able to pull out huge wins with Heinicke under center. The wins in Philadelphia and Houston were convincing. If they play like they did in those two games, they can cover, but there’s something about this team that doesn’t give the impression they’ll cruise against the Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders Prediction

In this season with a historic number of close games and narrow margin of victory, four points is a bridge too far here. Both of these teams have made a habit of playing games that come down to the very last minute. The Commanders will be challenged more than they were against the Texans, and there isn’t much of a home-field advantage to be had at FedEx Field.

The Falcons’ defense has enough issues that the Commanders shouldn’t be inept offensively, while Atlanta has enough of a running game to keep Washington’s defense on its toes. Washington can absolutely win this game, but I expect the Falcons to at least keep it close – even without Kyle Pitts. The offensive line looked fantastic against the Bears last weekend, and it likely won’t take too much offense to keep up. Atlanta has only lost by more than four three times this season. Falcons +4 looks like the safer bet.

Betting Trends

The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against NFC opponents. Arthur Smith’s team has generally overperformed this season.

The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Speaking of overperforming, Ron Rivera has gotten the most out of this group. Have the odds finally caught up, though?

The under is 8-2 in the Commanders’ last 10 home games.

Key Injuries

Atlanta Falcons Injuries: TE Kyle Pitts is out with a torn MCL. CB Casey Hayward (shoulder) has been out since mid-October but hasn’t been ruled out for Week 12. CB A.J. Terrell is in line to play after returning this past weekend.

Washington Commanders Injuries: DE Chase Young will make his debut on Sunday after tearing his ACL a year ago. LB Cole Holcomb (foot) is questionable. CB Benjamin St-Juste is questionable after suffering an ankle injury against the Texans.

Key Matchups

Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Falcons vs. Commanders below.

Falcons Running Game vs. Commanders Run Defense

The Falcons will run the ball often, as they always do, throwing multiple backs at the Commanders’ defense. Washington completely shut down standout Texans rookie Dameon Pierce this past weekend. Can a unit that grades out pretty strongly do the same against Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier. Patterson is looking more comfortable each week, and Atlanta needs him to produce in order to win this game.

Terry McLaurin vs. Falcons Secondary

The Falcons have allowed more passing yards than any other team this season (albeit as one of the few teams still without a bye week). On the other hand, top corner A.J. Terrell just returned against the Bears and will shadow Terry McLaurin all day this weekend. McLaurin has two 100+ yard games in his last four and has developed a great connection with Heinicke. If Terrell can slow him down, advantage Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart

QB: Marcus Mariota
RB1: Cordarrelle Patterson
RB2: Tyler Allgeier
RB3: Avery Williams
LWR: Bryan Edwards
RWR: Drake London
SWR: Olamide Zaccheaus
TE1: Parker Hesse

Washington Commanders Depth Chart

QB: Taylor Heinicke
RB1: Antonio Gibson
RB2: Brian Robinson Jr.
RB3: Jonathan Williams
LWR: Terry McLaurin
RWR: Jahan Dotson
SWR: Curtis Samuel
TE1: Logan Thomas