2019 Kentucky Derby Lineup, Odds, Predictions after Omaha Beach Favorite Scratched
Contents
At 9-2 odds Game Winner becomes the Kentucky Derby Favorite. Many horse racing experts expect this to be the most wide-open Kentucky Derby in recent years. So is betting the favorite the right move? Let’s take a look at Game Winner and the rest of the field in the 2019 Kentucky Derby and find out for ourselves.
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
| Post Position | Horse | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | War of Will | 15-1 | 20-1 |
| 2 | Tax | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| 3 | By My Standards | 15-1 | 20-1 |
| 4 | Gray Magician | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| 5 | Improbable | 5-1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | Vekoma | 15-1 | 20-1 |
| 7 | Maximum Security | 8-1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | Tacitus | 8-1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | Plus One Parfait | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| 10 | Cutting Humor | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| 11 | Haikal | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| 12 | Omaha Beach | SCRATCHED | 4-1 |
| 13 | Code of Honor | 12-1 | 15-1 |
| 14 | Win Win Win | 12-1 | 15-1 |
| 15 | Master Fencer | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| 16 | Game Winner | 9-2 | 5-1 |
| 17 | Roadster | 5-1 | 6-1 |
| 18 | Long Range Toddy | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| 19 | Spinoff | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| 20 | Country House | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| 21 | Bodexpress | 30-1 | 30-1 |
Odds by TVG
Analysis
1 War of WIll
Opening Odds: 20-1
Current Odds: 15-1
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
War of Will has won three of his last four races but is coming off of a disappointing ninth-place finish in his most recent race. With a preference to run on turf, War of Will may be a little out of his comfort zone in this race.
2 Tax
Opening Odds: 20-1
Current Odds: 20-1
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Tax has placed first and second in his two races so far this year, including a win in the Withers Stakes. Tax’s potential is on the rise and could be a longshot to keep an eye on come Saturday.
3 By My Standards
Opening Odds: 20-1
Current Odds: 15-1
Trainer: W. Bret Calhoun
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
By My Standards has been training up to the 145th Kentucky Derby off a 22-1 upset score in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds in late March. By My Standards makes for an interesting bet at 15-1.
4 Gray Magician
Opening Odds: 50-1
Current Odds: 50-1
Trainer: Peter Miller
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Gray Magician has placed second at the UAE Derby Sponsored By Al Naboodah Group and fourth at the Sham Stakes in his two races this year. At 50-1 odds it is a safe bet to stay away from Gray Magician in this one.
5 Improbable
Opening Odds: 6-1
Current Odds: 5-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Baffert’s first of three horses in the Derby, Improbable placed second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby. With Omaha Beach no longer in the race, Improbable is certainly a horse to keep an eye on.
6 Vekoma
Opening Odds: 20-1
Current Odds: 15-1
Trainer: George Weaver
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Vekoma had a win in his first start, the Nashua S. and most recently the Blue Grass Stakes. His only non-winning placement was a third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Don’t sleep on Vekoma.
7 Maximum Security
Opening Odds: 10-1
Current Odds: 8-1
Trainer: Jason Servis
Jockey: Luis Saez
Maximum Security is trained by Jason Servis, brother of John Servis who saddled the 2004 Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones. Maximum Security won the Florida Derby with ease back on March 30. 8-1 odds provide a solid value for a horse like Maximum Security that is certainly capable of winning this race.
8 Tacitus
Opening Odds: 10-1
Current Odds: 8-1
Trainer: William I. Mott
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Tacitus finished first in the Kentucky Derby points standings with wins at the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. Tacitus is one of Bill Mott’s two horses (Country House). Tacitus is first in point standings for a reason and isn’t a bad bet at 8-1.
9 Plus Que Parfait
Opening Odds: 30-1
Current Odds: 30-1
Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Trainer Brendan Walsh will be saddling his first Kentucky Derby runner with Plus Que Parfait on Saturday. Coming off of a win at the UAE Derby Sponsored By Al Naboodah Group, Plus Que Parfait may be the best bet of any horse at 30-1 odds.
10 Cutting Humor
Opening Odds: 30-1
Current Odds: 30-1
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: Corey J. Lanerie
After a seventh-place finish at the Southwest Stakes in February, Cutting Humor followed up with a win at the Sunland Park Derby in March. Cutting Humor will have a hard time finding that kind of success against this field.
11 Haikal
Opening Odds: 30-1
Current Odds: 30-1
Trainer: Kiaran P. McLaughlin
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Haikal will be making his first start outside of New York‘s Aqueduct, where he has spent his 5-3-1-1 career thus far. Don’t expect Haikal to find the same kind of success at Churchill Downs.
13 Code of Honor
Opening Odds: 15-1
Current Odds: 12-1
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III
Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Code of Honor finished third in the Florida Derby (G1) last out. A horse that runs well in distance races, Code of Honor is perhaps the best double-digit odds horse in the Derby.
14 Win Win WIn
Opening Odds: 15-1
Current Odds: 12-1
Trainer: Michael J. Trombetta
Jockey: Julian Pimentel
Win Win Win has placed second (Toyota Blue Grass Stakes) and third (Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby) in his last two races. This Florida horse should see himself in the middle of the pack for most of this race but isn’t a serious threat to finish first.
15 Master Fencer
Opening Odds: 50-1
Current Odds: 50-1
Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda
Jockey: Julien R. Leparoux
Master Fencer is the third horse based in Japan to run the Kentucky Derby, Ski Captain (14th in 1995) and Lani (ninth in 2016). Expect Master Fencer to finish towards the bottom of the pack in this one and save your money for a better option.
16 Game Winner
Opening Odds: 5-1
Current Odds: 9-2
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Joel Rosario
It is no surprise that one of Bob Baffert’s three horses is the new favorite. Game Winner’s last two results were second-place finishes to Omaha Beach. 9-2 odds is a pretty good value for a favorite.
17 Roadster
Opening Odds: 6-1
Current Odds: 5-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Florent Geroux
The final Baffert horse, Roadster, won the Santa Anita Derby with a great final turn. Could this be the horse that gets Baffert his sixth Kentucky Derby victory? At 5-1 odds, it is certainly worth a bet.
18 Long Range Toddy
Opening Odds: 30-1
Current Odds: 30-1
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Jockey: Jon Kenton Court
Long Range Toddy has won in the Clever Trevor and Springboard Mile Stakes, the latter of which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep-race. Long Range Toddy may be a rising star in horse racing and will be an interesting horse to watch come Saturday. 30-1 odds provide some nice value for this longshot.
19 Spinoff
Opening Odds: 30-1
Current Odds: 30-1
Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Spinoff is coming off of a second-place finish at the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby Stakes. Any horse trained by Todd Pletcher is a horse that can’t be counted out and is certainly capable of a high finish in Saturday’s race.
20 Country House
Opening Odds: 30-1
Current Odds: 30-1
Trainer: William I. Mott
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Bill Mott’s second horse in the Derby, Country House, has three Top 4 finished in its last three races dating back to mid-February. Although Country House probably won’t win on Saturday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the lead pack heading into the final turn.
21 Bodexpress
Opening Odds: 30-1
Current Odds: 30-1
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Chris Landeros
The late addition thanks to the scratch of Omaha Beach, Bodexpress is coming off of a second place at the Xpressbet Florida Derby, losing to Maximum Security. Bodexpress placed ahead of Code of Honor in that race, so the potential is there. As with Country House, Bodexpress could find itself in the lead pack towards the end of the race, although winning seems like an improbability.
Predictions
The last six Kentucky Derby Winners were all favorites, so the bulk of the money will be coming in on Game Winner, as it should with 9-2 odds. However, I look for Improbable to pick up the win in this year’s Kentucky Derby, with Game Winner finishing a close second.
Winner: Improbable
Best Longshot: Spinoff
Projected Top 10 Finishes:
| 1 | Improbable | 5-1 |
| 2 | Game Winner | 9-2 |
| 3 | Tacitus | 8-1 |
| 4 | Maximum Security | 8-1 |
| 5 | Code of Honor | 12-1 |
| 6 | By My Standards | 15-1 |
| 7 | Roadster | 5-1 |
| 8 | Win Win Win | 12-1 |
| 9 | Spinoff | 30-1 |
| 10 | Tax | 20-1 |
