MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Tuesday, June 23, 2026
We got shut out on Monday, as Kyle Stowers and William Contreras failed to go yard, while Pete Crow-Armstrong was void because the Cubs game got postponed. Let’s try to get back on track with the Tuesday slate.
Today, we’re riding with Josh Naylor, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Shea Langeliers. Each of these hitters is in a good spot to go yard tonight. The price is right to take a shot on them.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 50-198 (+0.36 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, June 23
Josh Naylor Home Run Odds
Josh Naylor is currently slashing .250/.312/.366 with eight home runs in 312 plate appearances. While this is an underwhelming line, we’re starting to see Naylor get on track in June, as he has a .206 ISO so far this month. That’s much higher than the .056 ISO and .124 ISO that he put up in April and May.
Naylor has a solid track record with a 30-homer season under his belt, so it’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting bombs. I like the spot against Pirates’ right-hander Mitch Keller tonight, as he’s put up a 4.99 xERA this season. Lefties like Naylor have done better vs Keller, as highlighted by a .334 wOBA (.282 wOBA vs righties).
Additionally, Naylor has some familiarity with Keller. In eight career plate appearances, Naylor has three hits and one home run with a .675 expected slugging percentage. That’s the kind of batter-vs-pitcher data that intrigues me, even though it’s a small sample. We’ll ride with Naylor to hit No. 9 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Odds
I took Pete Crow-Armstrong in last night’s column, but the game got rained out. I don’t want to miss out if he ends up hitting a home run, so I’ll ride with him once again. PCA is currently slashing .286/.363/.521 with 16 home runs in 329 plate appearances. He’s been on fire in June, slashing .437/.481/.930 with nine homers in 79 plate appearances. In the last seven days, PCA has a .494 xwOBA, so he’s been absolutely crushing the ball.
You also have to like the matchup against Kodai Senga, who has been prone to home runs this year, allowing a 2.63 HR/9. Lefties like PCA have obliterated Senga this season, putting up a .436 wOBA against him.
It’s clear that PCA has made an adjustment to counter what big league pitchers were doing to him after he had such an abysmal second half last year. We need to consider him as a star hitter moving forward. He’s just streaky, but the good news is right now he’s running hot. Let’s take him to hit No. 17 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Shea Langeliers Home Run Odds
Shea Langeliers is currently slashing .271/.333/.521 with 19 home runs in 321 plate appearances. You have to love how he’s been able to hit the ball so hard (14.7% barrel rate) while putting the ball in play so often (19.0% strikeout rate). Langeliers has two homers in his last eight games. I like him to hit No. 20 tonight.
That’s because it’s a matchup vs. Robbie Ray, who has a 4.98 xERA and a 1.58 HR/9 this season. Most of the damage with the long ball has been from right-handers, as Ray has allowed a 1.95 HR/9 against them. That’s good news for Langeliers, who has absolutely obliterated lefties this season, putting up a 186 wRC+.
You also have to like the batter-vs-pitcher data, as Langeliers has two hits and one homer in five career plate appearances vs. Ray. We’ll take him to go yard here. Risk 0.1 units.
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