2026 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: Props, Picks and Odds for July 4

The 4th of July is certainly steeped in tradition, and over the last several decades, the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has carved out its own niche on America’s national holiday. The country’s 250th birthday coincides with the 55th edition of the contest, which will unfold at the traditional venue of Nathan’s Famous flagship location at the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues in Coney Island, New York. As has been the case since 1997, Major League Eating is sanctioning the event, and only entrants under contract with the organization are allowed to participate. The winner of the contest is the competitor who can eat the most Nathan’s hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. This year’s field is comprised of 28 competitors — 15 men and 13 women, competing in separate divisions, each for a $10,000 grand prize and Mustard Belt.

Coverage of the women’s portion of the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will begin on Saturday, July 4 at 10:45 a.m. ET and is available to view via ESPN+ and the ESPN App. It will also replay during the men’s competition.

Coverage of the men’s portion begins at 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and will be simulcast on ABC beginning at 12:30 p.m. The competition re-airs at 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2. 

Both reigning women’s champion Miki Sudo and reigning men’s champion Joey Chestnut will also have isolation cameras trained upon them. Sudo’s camera will go live at 11:00 a.m. ET on the ESPN App, while Chestnut’s will begin airing at 12:30 p.m. ET on the ESPN App for those with an ESPN Unlimited plan.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Favorites and Longshots

Reigning champion Joey Chestnut is unsurprisingly a heavy favorite in the men’s division once again for 2026. Chestnut devoured 70.5 hot dogs to win the 2025 contest, claiming his 17th Mustard Belt and ninth straight win dating back to 2016 (he missed the 2024 contest due to a sponsorship dispute). Chesnut’s -2000 price dwarfs the competitor with the second-shortest odds, Patrick Bertoletti (+1000), who won the 2024 contest in Chestnut’s absence. Bertoletti has plenty of distance in his own right on the next-closest competitors, James Webb (+2200) and Geoffrey Esper (+2500). The Bertoletti-Webb-Esper trio is also at the head of the “Winner Without Joey Chestnut” leaderboard, sporting respective odds of -300, +500 and +600 in that unlikely scenario. The longest shots on the main board are the duo of Cameron Meade and Jerome Burns, who each have +20000 odds. The 22-year-old Meade began competitive eating in 2025 and qualified for this year’s event in his first professional contest, while the 34-year-old Burns put away 23.5 hot dogs in last year’s contest.

Total Hot Dogs Eaten Market

DraftKings has two different Total Hot Dogs Eaten prop markets for the men’s division in this year’s contest; Chestnut unsurprisingly gets his own. The prolific consumer is carrying an elevated Over/Under figure of 72.5 hot dogs, a number he’s only eclipsed thrice in his long history with the contest (2018, 2020, 2021). Bertoletti heads up the Over/Under market for the rest of the competitors, with his total checking in at 56.5. Bertoletti devoured 58 hot dogs in 10 minutes during his 2024 victory, but the Chicagoan checked in at 55 or fewer hot dogs during his prior contest participation from 2007-2012 (did not participate in 2010).

The Picks

Joey Chestnut Under 72.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (+110)

Oddsmakers are certainly backing the multi-time champ getting there — his Over on 72.5 is priced at -140 — but Chestnut’s hit rate on the number isn’t exactly strong, and he likely won’t have to push himself to that extent given the gulf in the projected totals between him and the rest of the field.

Nick Wehry Over 44.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (-115)

The 37-year-old Wehry has made big strides since first participating in the contest in 2018. Wehry gulped down 31 hot dogs that year, and he’s been on a mostly upward trajectory since then. The Tampa, Florida-based competitive eater consumed between 44.5 and 46.75 hot dogs in the 2021, 2023 and 2024 editions, offering plenty of evidence this number is within his range of outcomes.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Matchup Odds

DraftKings is also offering a full matchups market, where bettors can wager on who’ll eat the most hot dogs in specific head-to-head matchups between the rest of the men’s field outside of Chestnut. The pairings are as follows:

• Adrian Morgan (-120) vs. Cameron Meade (+100)
• Derek Hendrickson (-115) vs. Darrien Thomas (-115)
• George Chiger (-225) vs. Jerome Burns (+165)
• Gideon Oji (-110) vs. Radim Dvoracek (-110)
• Nick Wehry (+120) vs. Geoffrey Esper (-155)
• Patrick Bertoletti (-275) vs. James Webb (+200)
• Ricardo Corbucci (-140) vs. Max Stanford (+110)

The Pick

Esper (-155) over Wehry

As mentioned above, Esper is an interesting pick for the Over on 44.5 hot dogs at plus money. However, a head-to-head clash with Esper favors the latter by the numbers, considering his prop checks in at 48.5 and Esper’s +2500 outright winner odds notably outpace Wehry’s +3500 figure. Esper also has a much more impressive history at the contest outside of his modest 29.5 hot dogs consumed in 2015 — he’s gone on to down between 47 and 53 hot dogs in five of his other six years, hitting or exceeding the 49 mark on three occasions in the process.   Photo Credit: IMAGN IMAGES