MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Friday, July 3, 2026
We got shut out in home runs on Thursday, as Kyle Tucker, Junior Caminero, and Cal Raleigh each failed to hit home runs. We’ll look to bounce back on the Friday slate.
Today, we’re going with Gunnar Henderson, and Mookie Betts. I like the spots for these two hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 58-218 (+1.28 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, July 3
Gunnar Henderson Home Run Odds
Gunnar Henderson has been quite disappointing for the Orioles this season, slashing .227/.298/.416 with 16 home runs in 309 plate appearances. However, it’s encouraging to see that he has two multi-hit games in his last three, so perhaps he’s starting to get hot at the plate. This is a hitter with a 37-homer season under his belt, so there’s enough of a track record to trust him.
I like the spot at Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most homer-friendly environments in baseball. Cincinnati is starting right-hander Brady Singer, who has had major issues with home runs, as highlighted by a 2.21 HR/9. Lefties like Henderson have a .392 wOBA against Singer. Henderson has also hit Singer well, homering once in three plate appearances.
Put that all together, and you can see why I’m riding with Henderson to hit No. 17 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Mookie Betts Home Run Odds
Mookie Betts is having another underwhelming season, slashing .248/.303/.448 with 11 home runs in 228 plate appearances. The good news is that he’s increased his barrel rate from 5.5% to 8.2%, so he’s clearly hitting the ball harder. Betts also has three home runs in his last seven games, so he’s heating up at the plate.
Next up is a matchup against Padres’ right-hander Michael King, who Betts knows quite well, having homered three times in 21 plate appearances against him. King has a 4.76 xERA on the season, including a 9.0% barrel rate, so he’s been allowing a lot of hard contact, which bodes well for Betts’ chances of going yard here.
Considering how Betts is swinging the bat along with his familiarity with King, we’ll take him to hit No. 12 here. Risk 0.1 units.
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