2026 US Open Odds: Analyzing Each Top Nationality Prop Market
We are just one day away from the third major of the 2026 golf season, the US Open. If you’re not like me and don’t follow golf religiously day by day, you probably have some questions before locking in your US Open bets. Lineups has you covered this week, as we’ll be analyzing everything you need to know about US Open Odds, with analysis continuing throughout the week.
That brings us to the next topic we’ve endeavored to unpack: How to find value across each Top Nationality prop market. So without further ado, let’s dive into our analysis for best bets to make across each Top Nationality market for the 2026 US Open.
2026 US Open Top American Odds
My Pick: Patrick Reed
Best Available Odds:
Scottie Scheffler is the prohibitive favorite in this market, but Xander Schauffele is a challenger to watch closely at Shinnecock Hills. Amongst those chasing their first career US Open win, none have a better history than Schauffele, who has never finished worse than T14 in nine career US Open appearances.
Patrick Reed is the pick for me in this market, however, despite the high odds. Reed has finished T12 and T10 in the first two majors of the year, and held a share of the lead 7 holes into the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock Hills, before ultimately finishing 4th. Reed’s short game prowess makes him perfectly suited to survive the challenge that Shinnecock Hills has in store this week.
2026 US Open Top European Odds
My Pick: Jon Rahm
Best Available Odds:
This may be the most competitive Top European contests we’ve seen in years. Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Ludvig Aberg all enter in elite form. In the next tier, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose, Tyrrell Hatton, and Viktor Hovland also have clear lanes to contend at Shinnecock Hills.
Despite the steep competition here, I’m siding with one of the chalk choices in Jon Rahm. Rahm has an excellent record in links conditions and has some of the most reliable hands in this field around the green. It appears his disappointing result at The Masters was just a blip on the radar, as he’s rebounded nicely since then with a win and two additional runner-up finishes over his next five starts.
2026 US Open Top Asian Odds
My Pick: Hideki Matsuyama
Best Available Odds:
Hideki Matsuyama has been a constant favorite in this market, but this week, he’s been surpassed by red-hot Si Woo Kim. Kim has been fantastic all season from tee-to-green, and is a deserving favorite in Top Asian odds.
I love the value on Matsuyama in this market, which truly feels like a two-man matchup with Si Woo Kim. Kim will enter as the hotter player coming off of back-to-back top-10 finishes, but his ability to consistently hole putts inside of 10 feet has been a major deterent for him this season. Matsuyama is just as reliable on approach and around the green, and has proven he has a higher ceiling when he gets in a zone on the greens.
2026 US Open Top Canadian Odds
My Pick: Corey Conners
Best Available Odds:
Corey Conners has dominated the Top Canadian Odds market for a decade at this point, and this seems like an ideal spot to buy low on him, as he finds himself behind the less proven Sudarshan Yellamaraju and Nick Taylor. Conners has had a down year thus far, but has proven capable of scrambling in difficult conditions, as evidenced by his strong history at The Masters.
2026 US Open Top Englishman Odds
My Pick: Tyrrell Hatton
Best Available Odds:
I do have an outright wager on fellow Englishman, Matt Fitzpatrick, but if you’re asking me who presents the best value in this market, it’s Tyrrell Hatton. As the third-favorite in this market, Hatton was very close to winning the 2025 US Open, and will enter the week fresh off of a win at LIV Andalucia in his latest start. Hatton is a consummate links savant and turned heads at this event 8-years ago, where he grinded to an impressive T6 finish.
I don’t love the odds premium on Justin Rose in this market, but he remains a notable Englishman to watch as well, finishing T10 in his last visit to Shinnecock Hills in 2018.
2026 US Open Top South American Odds
My Pick: Joaquin Niemann
Best Available Odds:
From a talent standpoint, Joaquin Niemann is in a class of his own in this market. I’m drawn to him as a top value at anything better than even odds, as we may not see another South American player survive to see the weekend on this setup.
That was the consensus feeling at Aronimink last month, and Niemman coasted past the other South Americans that week with a T18 finish.
2026 US Open Top Oceanic Odds
My Pick: Cameron Smith
Best Available Odds:
Adam Scott is set to make his 100th consecutive major start this week, a mind-bending achievement for the veteran Aussie. He may be the favorite in this market, but I’m not convinced I can trust his putter on these nuanced greens. Since short game is so emphasized at Shinnecock, Cameron Smith is a player to watch if the winds really do pick up, as he still possesses the most polished short game in this field.
Smith has leaned on his short game to contend at other venues where driving skill is de-emphasized, posting top-5 finishes at Augusta National, Los Angeles Country Club, and Chambers Bay. His wins at TPC Sawgrass and St. Andrews were carried entirely by his fairway-to-green play, which will be the formula at Shinnecock Hills as well.
2026 US Open Top Nordic Odds
My Pick: Alex Noren
Best Available Odds:
Nordic golf is so hot right now. Who knew? A market once dominated by Ludvig Aberg and Viktor Hovland has introduced more parity of late after the emergence of Kristoffer Reitan, Nicolai Hojgaard, and Alex Noren.
Aberg may be the man to beat here, but Noren is the most experienced and best scrambler of the bunch, so I’m drawn to the value on his odds in this market. If the wind is as much of a factor as it’s projected to be, this tournament may come down to a scrambling contest, which Noren is most adept at winning.
Best of luck with your US Open bets, and check in each day this week for more US Open analysis!
Photo Credit: AP/George Walker IV
