2026 US Open Tournament Odds, Picks, Predictions: Final Bets, Betting Card, OAD
The third major of 2026 is just about here. Shinnecock Hills Golf Club takes center stage to host the 2026 US Open this Thursday. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm headline among US Open bets this week. John Haslbauer provides his favorite PGA picks from the available golf odds. Below, you’ll find each player’s best odds at legal betting sites.
It’s the most wonderful time of the year. After a week of over-analyzing every trend, data point, driving range shot, and press quotes, golf’s best have finally come to tee it up. The 2026 US Open is just about underway.
Whenever the PGA and LIV tours converge, we must look beyond the model and insert some subjectivity. Not many players have what it takes to withstand the challenge and pressure that a major championship presents. That is especially the case at Shinnecock Hills, renowned as one of, if not the, toughest venue on the US Open rotation.
The player who is most capable of surviving the slaughter in Southampton should enter with no questions surrounding their all-around form, and be capable on leaning on their short game to consistently scramble for par saves.
Ahead, we’ll go through every bet I’ve placed at the 2026 US Open.
Click on any of the US Open odds below for the best available prices at sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.
HOW I BUILT MY US OPEN BETTING CARD
I gave Scottie Scheffler a long look this week as a single-bullet consideration, considering the ideal course fit, and that his odds have not drifted as long as 6/1 all season. The severity of the wind, however, has led me to build out a more diverse outright card, just in case there is a weather advantage to be had out at Shinnecock.
All of the players I’ve landed on with my card this week share in common trending form, elite short game, and proven experience on comparable wind-exposed links golf courses.
With all of that in mind, I’ve upped the ante just a bit with my betting card exposure to match the significance of a major championship sweat at the 2026 US Open:
- Outrights — 4.2U in to pay 30U each
- FRL — 1U in to pay out 15U+ each
- Props — 3.0U in to pay out 4U+ each
US OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (4.2 UNITS)
Check out my golf sleepers for US Open golf DFS picks and longshot bet considerations.
Jon Rahm
My bet: +1750
Best available odds:
A US Open on a links setup like Shinnecock Hills requires the right combination of power and finesse. Rahm’s major championship resume should give us every reason to believe he can thrive in these conditions. He is a past US Open champion himself, winning in 2021 at Torrey Pines. He conquered Augusta National in 2023 with his crafty touch on tight lies around undulating greens. And his history battling the elements at The Open Championship is strong as well, finishing top-10 in three of his last five appearances.
Rahm disappointed at the 2026 Masters, but has rebounded strongly since then with a win and two additional runner-up finishes over his next five starts. That includes a T2 at the PGA Championship last month, so it’s clear the former World No. 1 is no longer searching for form.
Matt Fitzpatrick
My bet: +2300
Best available odds:
Matt Fitzpatrick is a popular outright bet this week, and for good reason. In my opinion, he should be the 4th favorite in this field after the first tier of Scheffler, McIlroy, and Rahm. Fitzpatrick will come to Shinnecock on a high note, finishing 2nd place at last week’s RBC Canadian Open. While he’s made significant strides with his approach play this season, it’s his short game that makes me most optimistic about his chances this week. Fitzpatrick ranks 5th overall in my model this week, with top-5 ranks in Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring Conditions), Comp Course History, Scrambling, and SG ARG.
Fitzpatrick leads the PGA Tour with three wins this season. He has already won the US Open once before at Brookline, and would join Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau in the club of multi-US Open winners since 2017 with a win at Shinnecock.
Patrick Reed
My bet: +5500
Best available odds:
It’s been a fascinating season for Patrick Reed, who left LIV, won two of his first three DP World Tour starts, and now seems content to only play in the majors until he’s officially earned 2027 PGA Tour status.
A lack of reps in-between majors has not influenced his play, as Reed has finished T12 and T10 in the first two majors of the year. If conditions are harsh, and Shinnecock Hills becomes another scrambling contest, Reed will be licking his chops as one of the most reliable scramblers in this field.
Tyrrell Hatton
My bet: +6200
Best available odds:
Hatton carried LIV on his back at The Masters last month and was the only player from his Tour to show up in Augusta, ultimately posting a career-best T3 finish at the Masters. He now enters Shinnecock Hills fresh off a win at LIV Andalucia, and has started to look like his vintage self again by leaning on the strengths of his driving accuracy, approach play, and short game.
Hatton came closest to winning a major at the 2025 U.S. Open, finishing T4 at Oakmont CC. Prior to that, his best career finish in a US Open came here in 2018, where he finished T6. Hatton is one of the best links players in the modern game, and picked up his last PGA Tour win in tough and windy conditions at the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Overall, this is a great course fit for Hatton’s game, and his game looks to be improving since we last saw him at Valderrama.
Cameron Smith
My bet: +18600
Best available odds:
Generally speaking, anyone who has won The Players and The Open over the last four years is fully capable of winning at Shinnecock Hills as well. It took Smith some time to regain his footing playing full-time on LIV, but we’re starting to see glimpses of his elite 2022 form yet again.
Smith contended at Aronimink last month, finishing T7 to break a streak of six consecutive missed cuts in majors. The results on LIV have been gradually better this year as well, with five top-15 finishes over his first eight starts. The driver, as always, is the concern for Smith. But if he sustains his world-best short game, it may not matter.
US OPEN BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (1.0 UNITS)
Patrick Reed
My bet: +4500
Best available odds:
Traditionally, when betting first-round leaders, I look for aggressive birdie-makers who can catch fire with their irons and putting. The formula is not exactly the same when betting first-round leaders at the US Open, however, where anything in the red may well be good enough to lead the pack. Reed’s combination of form, course history, and elite short game gives me confidence that he can handle anything this course throws at him this Thursday.
Chris Gotterup
My bet: +5000
Best available odds:
If there is someone who can find birdies where few others can, it could be an elite ball striker with field-leading distance like Chris Gotterup. Gotterup has shown us that his game translates well on the open links, winning the Scottish Open and finishing 3rd at The Open last season. He’ll look to build on the momentum of his T10 finish at the PGA Championship.
Justin Thomas
My bet: +7000
Best available odds:
Justin Thomas has a long history of prevailing through difficult, windy conditions, as evidenced by his most recent wins at Southern Hills and TPC Sawgrass. There’s no question Thomas has the shots in his bag to score at a links setup like Shinnecock Hills, the question is whether he can avoid derailing his round with any blowup holes on Thursday.
Cameron Smith
My bet: +7000
Best available odds:
If Shinnecock plays like the beast we expect it to on Thursday in high winds, the player who goes the lowest may simply need to hole the most long-range birdie putts. While it’s been a rocky start to the season for Smith, he’s playing more like his 2023 self, who proved to the world he can win a major with his short game alone.
Aaron Rai
My bet: +8000
Best available odds:
Rai is an accomplished wind player, which proved to be the x-factor in his maiden major championship win at Aronimink. He’ll lean on his elite accuracy to position himself well for the sparse birdie opportunities that Shinnecock offers.
US OPEN BETS: PROPS (3.0 UNITS)
Top 20 Finish: Patrick Reed
My bet: +190
Best available odds:
I am higher than the market appears to be on Patrick Reed this week, so I’m happy to double-dip into the placement markets as well. Reed has finished T10 and T12 in his first two major starts this season, and returns to the scene where he finished 4th at the 2018 US Open. He’ll look to make this his seventh top-20 finish over eight starts this season.
Top Oceania Player: Cameron Smith
My bet: +450
Best available odds:
Adam Scott is set to make his 100th consecutive major start this week, a mind-bending achievement for the veteran Aussie. He may be the favorite in this market, but I’m not convinced I can trust his putter on these nuanced greens. Since short game is so emphasized at Shinnecock, Cameron Smith is a player to watch if the winds really do pick up, as he still possesses the most polished short game in this field.
Smith has leaned on his short game to contend at other venues where driving skill is de-emphasized, posting top-5 finishes at Augusta National, Los Angeles Country Club, and Chambers Bay. His wins at TPC Sawgrass and St. Andrews were carried entirely by his fairway-to-green play, which will be the formula at Shinnecock Hills as well.
Top Player Over 40 Years Old: Alex Noren
My bet: +500
Similar to the last prop, this is yet another opportunity to pick against Adam Scott, who continues to qualify for majors but has struggled to put himself in contention in them lately. Beyond Scott, this market also features Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, and Dustin Johnson.
Amongst that group, Noren is the third-favorite, but it’s his short game that stands out above the rest. I believe this is going to be a tournament decided by scrambling, and if that is the case, there’s no one whose hands I trust around the greens more than Alex Noren’s.
ONE AND DONE
My pick: Jon Rahm
This is one of the hardest weeks of the year for me to project ownership in OAD. The presence of LIV has changed the dynamic of OAD strategy as we know it, as there are only four weeks each year when we have the option to play Rahm, DeChambeau, and other LIV golfers. That should, in theory, inflate their ownership, so I’m expecting each to push beyond 25% owned.
The US Open offers a high purse, and only one Signature Event and one major championship remain on the schedule after this week. Logically, this is a moment you save a superstar player for.
I’ve played myself right into that conventional line of thinking, as I still have Jon Rahm available in One And Done, and he is a player I am confident can contend on this stage. I’m never too afraid to eat the chalk in OAD, and with neither Scheffler nor Fitzpatrick at my disposal any longer, I’m choosing the best man available at the 2026 US Open.
I would also consider playing Tyrrell Hatton, Scottie Scheffler, or Matt Fitzpatrick in OAD, if not Jon Rahm.
US OPEN BETS: FULL BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s PGA Tour golf bets. Best of luck this week with your US Open bets, and see you after each round with nightly daily fantasy and live betting analysis throughout the tournament.
2026 US OPEN SPORTSBOOKS
Compare odds before making your PGA Tour golf bets this week using the table below. Use the pulldown menu to browse different markets. Click the odds to bet.
Photo Credit: AP/George Walker IV
