Miami-Ohio vs. SMU First Four Game Preview, Picks, Betting Odds & Data

By Thom Cunningham | Mar 17, 2026, 8:28pm

The Miami-Ohio Redhawks got into March Madness! Barely, as a 31-1 team found themselves on the bubble during Selection Sunday only to find out they will face the ACC’s Southern Methodist Mustangs. Let’s dive into the betting numbers, odds, trends and much more for the final First Four game of the 2026 college basketball season.

Miami-Ohio vs. SMU Game Information

Date: Wednesday, Mar. 18, 2026
Time: 9:15 p.m. ET
Network: truTV
Region: Midwest
Location: Dayton, Ohio
Venue: UD Arena

Miami-Ohio vs. SMU Betting Resources

Miami-Ohio vs. SMU Betting Odds

Miami-Ohio vs. SMU Betting Data

Miami-Ohio Redhawks

Region Odds:
Sweet 16 Odds:
Elite Eight Odds:
Final Four Odds:
National Title Odds:

Seed: No. 11
Record: 31-1
Conference: MAC
PS/G: 90.7
PA/G: 75.3
ORtg: 123.9
DRtg: 102.8

SMU Mustangs

Region Odds:
Sweet 16 Odds:
Elite Eight Odds:
Final Four Odds:
National Title Odds:

Seed: No. 11
Record: 20-13
Conference: ACC
PS/G: 84.2
PA/G: 77.6
ORtg: 118.2
DRtg: 108.9

Miami-Ohio vs. SMU Key Players

Miami-Ohio Redhawks

Peter Suder (SR) – 14.6 ppg; 4.6 rpg; 4 apg
Brant Byers (SO) – 14.2 ppg; 4.1 rpg
Elan Elmer (JR) – 12.6 ppg; 6 rpg

SMU Mustangs

Kevin Miller (JR) – 19.2 ppg; 3.9 rpg, 6.4 apg
Samet Yigitoglu (SO) – 10.8 ppg; 7.9 rpg
Jaron Pierre (SR) – 17.6 ppg; 4.9 rpg

Miami-Ohio vs. SMU Betting Analysis

This could go either way for Miami-Ohio, entering with betting data in different directions. The Redhawks just lost their first game outright to UMass and are on a current 0-4 ATS skid. With that said, Miami-Ohio is a perfect 4-0 against the spread when playing as an underdog this season. As a bettor, can you forgive a conference tournament loss to a Frank Martin-coached program and take a chance on the Redhawks 4-0 ATS mark as a +6.5-point dog? Also note the Redhawks are 10-4 ATS on the road.

SMU is just 9-12 ATS as a favorite, although the Mustangs are 3-1 ATS on a neutral court. Prior to the ACC Tournament, though, SMU failed to cover four straight games along with six of its last eight overall. The combined O/U for these schools is also 37-25 which favors the Over slightly.

Miami-Ohio vs. SMU Best Bet, Pick & Prediction

The only reason we’re not considering the point total is because the line given is Over 163, which is a lot even though the projected score total supports the Over. If you like the Over then take it, but for our pick we’ll actually side with Miami-Ohio, playing the ‘disrespect’ card. An outright win we won’t buy, despite the projected score – but the touchdown spread is large enough to test.

SMU’s 9-12 ATS mark as the favorite while also failing to cover four of six games seems like a good bet to back considering the large spread given. The concern is Miami-Ohio’s current 0-4 ATS skid, but their 4-0 ATS mark as an underdog means they typically play up to the role as the disrespected team – and there is no bigger disrespect than a 31-1 team having to earn it’s tournament invite through the First Four.

Score Prediction: Miami-Ohio 85, SMU 80
Best Bet: Miami-Ohio +7.5 (-110)

Thom Cunningham

Thom Cunningham is the Lineups.com News Editor and has been involved with sports media for almost two decades at Spectrum, VegasInsider.com, Oddschecker, VSiN and much more as a content producer - focused on the betting and gaming space over the last decade tracking insights, data analytics and covering various markets from the NFL to the Oscars.