MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Friday, May 1, 2026
We had a small profitable night on Thursday thanks to Daulton Varsho going yard, helping make up for losses on Riley Greene and Konnor Griffin.
Today, we’re riding with Gunnar Henderson, Wilyer Abreu, and Juan Soto. Each of these hitters has been generating hard contact lately.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 16-84 (-1.43 units)
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Friday, May 1
Gunnar Henderson Home Run Odds
Gunnar Henderson is currently slashing .214/.283/.481, which is underwhelming, but at least he has nine home runs in 145 plate appearances. The Orioles’ shortstop has homered twice in his last six games, so he’s coming in at good form.
You have to like the matchup at Yankee Stadium. With the short porch in right field, it’s a great place for left-handed power hitters like Henderson.
The Yankees are going with Will Warren in this game. This is a young right-hander who has been worse against lefties (.314 wOBA, 1.76 HR/9).
We should note that Henderson has done relatively well vs. Warren in his career, putting up a .407 xwOBA in 11 plate appearances.
With that in mind, we’ll take a chance on Henderson to hit his 10th homer of the season. Risk 0.1 units.
Wilyer Abreu Home Run Odds
Wilyer Abreu is currently slashing .307/.373/.482 with four home runs in 126 plate appearances. The plate discipline looks great, as highlighted by a 9.5 BB% and a 17.5 K%. The batted ball metrics are good, too, including a 12.0% barrel rate.
In fact, in the last seven days, Abreu has a .486 xwOBA, which ranks 12th in MLB during that stretch. That means that he’s hitting the ball hard, which is obviously a good sign.
As a left-handed hitter, Abreu is much better against righties, and he’ll get one tonight in Mike Burrows, who has gotten crushed by lefties this season, allowing a .443 wOBA.
We’ll ride with Abreu to go yard for the fifth time of the year in this exploitable matchup.
Juan Soto Home Run Odds
Juan Soto is starting to look like the superstar hitter we all know and love, going 7-for-17 with two home runs in his last four games. With proven power hitters like Soto, home runs tend to come in bunches, so this could very well be a power binge.
You have to like the matchup against Walbert Urena, who just got rocked for four earned runs in only 3.2 innings. This is a pitcher allowing a 5.16 SIERA, so the underlying metrics don’t look good at him at all.
Then you have to consider that Soto will have some at-bats against Angels’ relievers. Los Angeles has one of the worst bullpens in baseball. With Urena unlikely to pitch deep into the game, there’s a good chance that Soto will get to face their relievers, which is a mismatch.
With that in mind, I’m going with Soto to hit his third homer in the last five games. Risk 0.1 units.
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