MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, April 25, 2026

By Frank Ammirante | Apr 25, 2026, 9:44am

We had a small profit on Friday, as Ronald Acuña Jr. hit a home run. Let’s try to build on that with another winning night on Saturday.

Today, we’re going with Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Riley Greene. Each of these hitters is in great spots.

Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 12-70 (-1.61 units)

Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, April 25

Aaron Judge Home Run Odds

Aaron Judge is currently slashing .237/.372/.559 with nine home runs in 114 plate appearances. The batted ball metrics are bonkers, with a 24.2% barrel rate.

Despite the Yankees pouring on runs last night, Judge didn’t homer. But I’m going back to him for the second consecutive night just because Houston is a great spot for right-handed power hitters with the Crawford boxes in left field.

It’s another exploitable pitching matchup here with Mike Burrows on the mound. The Astros’ righty is allowing a 1.69 HR/9 this season.

The price is always inflated on Judge, but at least we’re getting him at longer than +200 odds here. Risk 0.1 units.

Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds

Kyle Schwarber is currently slashing .189/.336/.484 with eight home runs in 116 plate appearances. It’s been a poor start at the plate, but he still has a 21.8% barrel rate, so I’m not too concerned.

We’re getting some wind blowing out to left field with 71-degree temperatures for this game, so it’s slightly favorable hitting weather. You also have to like the pitching matchup against right-hander Bryce Elder.

While he’s off to a great start with a 1.50 ERA, that comes with a 3.65 SIERA. It’s only a matter of time before we see some regression.

We’ll take Schwarber to go yard to help the Phillies snap this 10-game losing streak. Risk 0.1 units.

Riley Greene Home Run Odds

We’ll finish it off with Riley Greene to hit a home run. The Tigers’ slugger is currently slashing .295/.396/.474 with three home runs in 111 plate appearances. It’s impressive how he’s trimmed his strikeout rate from 30.7% to 23.4%. The batted ball metrics also look great with a 14.5% barrel rate.

Perhaps Greene is taking the next step as a hitter.

It’s also worth noting that Greene is coming into this game on a hot streak, going 10-for-26 with homers in back-to-back games on his current six-game hitting streak. This includes three two-hit games in a row and four in his last five.

It’s a great spot at one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball in Great American Ball Park, especially with 7 MPH winds blowing out to right field.

The pitching matchup looks good as well with Brady Singer on the mound. The veteran righty has a 5.18 xERA and 44.7% hard-hit rate.

So, here we have the perfect storm for a home run prop: improving hitter on a hot streak, facing a struggling pitcher in a hitter-friendly environment. Risk 0.1 units.

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Photo Credit: AP/Ben Jackson

Frank Ammirante

Frank Ammirante has been creating sports betting and fantasy sports content for 5+ years, specializing in baseball and football, but also writing about basketball, hockey, and soccer. He has also written online casino, sweepstakes casino, prediction markets, and news articles while working as a content editor as well. You may have seen his work at The Game Day, RotoBaller, FantasyPros, Deadspin, Casino.org, and much more. Frank started out in the fantasy sports space and has competed in popular industry events like Tout Wars. His work has recently been published in this year's Fantasy Index fantasy baseball magazine. As an avid Blue Jays fan, Frank is still mourning their World Series loss to the Dodgers, calling it "one of the biggest collapses in sports history."