MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Saturday, June 13, 2026

By Frank Ammirante | Jun 13, 2026, 11:56am

We made a small profit on Friday, as Willson Contreras went yard, making up for losses on Kyle Manzardo and Colton Cowser.

Today, we’re going with Jac Caglianone, Christian Yelich, and Nick Kurtz. Each of these hitters is in a good spot to hit a home run.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 45-175 (+1.2 units)

Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Saturday, June 13

Jac Caglianone Home Run Odds

Jac Caglianone is slashing .272/.343/.446 with eight home runs in 236 plate appearances. The 23-year-old slugger is hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by a 15.4% barrel rate.

On top of that, he’s really heating up at the plate. So far in June, Caglianone is slashing .457/.537/.771 with three home runs. We just saw him homer twice on June 9th.

Up next is an exploitable matchup against Astros’ right-hander Mike Burrows, who has had a major issue with home runs this year, allowing a 2.09 HR/9 and a 9.4% barrel rate.

What’s even better is that Burrows has been worse against lefties (.427 wOBA) than righties (.324 wOBA), so spot is right in Caglianone’s wheelhouse.

Add in the fact that this game is in a hitter-friendly environment at Kauffman Stadium, and you can see why this is an appealing wager. Risk 0.1 units.

Christian Yelich Home Run Odds

Christian Yelich is currently slashing .278/.351/.424 with four home runs in 168 plate appearances. The 34-year-old veteran’s barrel rate has plummeted from 10.3% to 5.8%, and he hasn’t homered since May 25th.

However, I like tonight’s spot against Phillies’ right-hander Aaron Nola, who continues to give up a lot of hard contact, including a 9.1% barrel rate and a 1.5 HR/9.

What’s also good is that Nola has had a tough time vs. lefties like Yelich, as they have a .396 wOBA against him (.309 wOBA vs. righties).

Additionally, Yelich has a lot of familiarity with Nola. In 40 career plate appearances, Yelich has one home run and a .462 slugging percentage against him.

Given the price on Yelich to go yard, coupled with the matchup against Nola, I’ll take a chance on this one. Risk 0.1 units.

Nick Kurtz Home Run Odds

Nick Kurtz is slashing .286/.437/.539 with 16 home runs in 311 plate appearances. He’s been absolutely crushing the ball, including an 18.1% barrel rate.

On top of that, Kurtz has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, slashing .317/.448/.619 with 11 home runs in 172 plate appearances since May 1st.

The A’s are playing in an absolute bandbox in Vegas for this game, so there’s a good chance that they can pour on runs. This is reflected in the game total, which currently sits at 14.5 runs.

The pitching matchup is against Rockies’ left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has had a major issue with home runs, as highlighted by a 2.21 HR/9. Even though Kurtz is a lefty, he hasn’t been that bad against southpaws, putting up a 135 wRC+.

With the lefty-vs-lefty matchup giving us a better price on Kurtz than usual, we’ll ride with him here. Risk 0.1 units.

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Photo Credit: AP/Caroline Brehman

Frank Ammirante

Frank Ammirante has been creating sports betting and fantasy sports content for 5+ years, specializing in baseball and football, but also writing about basketball, hockey, and soccer. He has also written online casino, sweepstakes casino, prediction markets, and news articles while working as a content editor as well. You may have seen his work at The Game Day, RotoBaller, FantasyPros, Deadspin, Casino.org, and much more. Frank started out in the fantasy sports space and has competed in popular industry events like Tout Wars. His work has recently been published in this year's Fantasy Index fantasy baseball magazine. As an avid Blue Jays fan, Frank is still mourning their World Series loss to the Dodgers, calling it "one of the biggest collapses in sports history."