MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, April 23, 2026

We hit a small profit on Wednesday, as Matt Olson homered to offset losses on Willson Contreras and Logan O’Hoppe. Let’s build on that on Thursday as we ride with three sluggers.

Today, we’re going back to Matt Olson, along with Kyle Schwarber and Munetaka Murakami. Each of these hitters is in a good spot today.

Keep reading to find out about our MLB home run predictions for today. Also, be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.

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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 11-65 (-1.51 units) 

Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, April 23

Matt Olson Home Run Odds

I’m going right back to the well on Matt Olson after he made me proud with a home run on Wednesday. The veteran slugger has been mashing of late, homering three times in his last seven games.

Remember, this is a hitter with a 54-homer season under his belt, so you have to love targeting him whenever he’s in form and priced at +300 odds or longer.

Up next is a great matchup against Nationals’ right-hander Cade Cavalli. While Cavalli came into the year on a bunch of sleeper lists, he’s been struggling, putting up a 4.57 xERA. Lefties have been especially tough on Cavalli, putting up a .422 wOBA, compared to .268 from righties.

Given what we’ve seen from Olson all year, especially lately, this feels like a good spot to ride the wave with him. Risk 0.1 units.

Kyle Schwarber Home Run Odds

Kyle Schwarber came into Wednesday’s action with a .217/.363/.554 slash with 8 home runs in 102 plate appearances. This is one of the best power hitters in baseball, fresh off a 56-homer season.

That’s why you have to love getting him at longer than +300 odds at Wrigley Field. Reports indicate that 9 MPH winds will be blowing out in this game, which is reflected in the nine-run total, which looks high at first glance in a game with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound.

With windy conditions, Schwarber is in a great spot to go yard. It also bodes well that he’s in top form right now, homering twice in his last four games.

Then, we have to acknowledge that Edward Cabrera is on the mound. He’s been quite disappointing so far, putting up a 4.24 xERA and an 18.7% strikeout rate. Take Schwarber to hit No. 9 here. Risk 0.1 units.

Munetaka Murakami Home Run Odds

Last but not least, I’m going with my favorite hitter in baseball right now, Munetaka Murakami. I can’t believe I haven’t played the first-year slugger during this power binge, as he’s now homered in five consecutive games.

The reason why I’m riding with Murakami for this game is the matchup against right-hander Michael Soroka. For one, Murakami came into Wednesday’s action with a 179 wRC+ against righties. Secondly, Soroka has pitched well, but he’s giving up a lot of hard contact, as highlighted by a 16.1% barrel rate, which ranks in the 6th percentile.

So, here we have the hottest power hitter in baseball, taking on a right-hander who gives up barrels more than most. Sounds like a nice recipe for yet another home run from Murakami. Risk 0.1 units.

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Photo Credit: AP/Derik Hamilton