Ole Miss vs. Miami CFB Semifinal Prediction, Picks, & Odds: Lock Your Picks In Ahead Of Kickoff (Thursday, January 8th)

After narrowly escaping Texas A&M in the first round of the College Football Playoff, the Miami Hurricanes kept their Cinderella run alive with a dominant quarterfinal win over Ohio State. Miami’s pressure up front forced Julian Sayin into multiple poor decisions, as the Buckeyes quarterback threw two interceptions while completing just 62 percent of his passes.

Heading into the semifinal matchup against Ole Miss, the Hurricanes defense has an opportunity to build on that momentum against an offensive line that has struggled to hold its ground. With quarterback Trinidad Chambliss forced to throw on the run at an elevated rate, the Rebels offense is vulnerable to stalling before reaching scoring position, which limits its ability to put points on the board.

Best Bet: Ole Miss Rebels Team Total Under 24.5 (-125, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Click any odds below to place a bet. For more sportsbook promos and information about each sportsbook, we highly recommend checking out our page featuring the best sports betting sites.

Negative Regression Looms for Kewan Lacy

While Chambliss has drawn much of the attention, Kewan Lacy has quietly been a major contributor for Ole Miss. The Rebels running back is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and more than one rushing touchdown per game. His production has been central to Ole Miss’ offensive success, with the Rebels ranking above the national average in both rush success rate and quality drives.

Lacy’s efficiency is particularly impressive given the lack of support from his offensive line. Ole Miss ranks 97th in stuff rate and 79th in line yards, averaging just 2.9 line yards per rush. The line’s inability to generate movement forces Lacy to create yards after contact almost immediately, which significantly reduces his chances of breaking explosive runs.

With Miami’s defensive line capable of controlling the trenches, the Hurricanes should be able to compress coverage on the back end and shrink Chambliss’ passing windows. With defenders consistently near the point of contact, the level of havoc on Chambliss’ throws should increase, making it easier for Miami to disrupt timing and keep the Rebels behind the sticks for much of the game.

Expect the Hurricanes to Control Time of Possession

Like Ole Miss, Miami’s offensive success is driven by its ground game, as the Hurricanes rank in the top half of the country in rush success rate and standard downs rate. Mark Fletcher Jr. faced little resistance against Ohio State’s front seven, finishing with 90 rushing yards while averaging 4.7 yards per carry.

This matchup sets up favorably for Fletcher once again, as Ole Miss ranks 67th in defensive rush success rate and 92nd in line yards allowed. The Rebels’ linebackers have also struggled in the second level, grading poorly in open-field tackling and allowing 1.2 open-field yards per rush.

With Fletcher consistently reducing the distance to gain, Miami’s likelihood of converting on later downs increases. Sustained drives will allow the Hurricanes to control time of possession and limit Ole Miss’ offensive opportunities. If the Rebels’ team total moves past the key number of 24, it would be wise to reduce wager size accordingly.