UEFA Europa League Match Betting Previews, Odds & Analysis for Thursday, May 7, 2026

The Europa League semifinals wrap up on Thursday afternoon with both matchups currently separated by just one goal.

Braga enters Thursday’s match with a 2-1 lead over Freiburg after a stoppage-time winner for the Portuguese side in the first leg. Carlos Vicens’ club is looking to cling onto that one-goal lead and have Braga make its first European final in 15 years. As things stand, Freiburg enters the match as slight underdogs to advance, despite being favored to win the match on its home turf.

Looking ahead to the second matchup, the Europa League tournament futures have officially flipped following last week’s results. Nottingham Forest managed to keep its Premier League rivals at bay, beating Aston Villa in the first leg 1-0. Villa, formerly favored to win the tournament, now sits second on that list, while also being favored to win Thursday’s match at Villa Park.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the two Europa League semifinal matches and discuss our predictions and best bets for Thursday afternoon.

Thursday’s UEFA Europa League Schedule

• Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest – 3:00 p.m./Prime Video
• Freiburg vs. Braga – 3:00 p.m./Prime Video

Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest Odds & Analysis

Last Thursday’s match between these two Premier League sides saw Nottingham Forest keep its first clean sheet against Villa in nearly three years. Vitor Pereira’s squad ended Villa’s nine-game win streak in the competition and became the first team to keep Unai Emery’s squad scoreless in the Europa League.

Despite these two squads having very different seasons in their domestic league, Forest showed they could compete with Villa even after entering the tie as significant underdogs. With the odds now flipped in its favor, Forest will need a similar performance on a pitch that has been unkind to them in recent history.

In fact, you’d have to look back to an EPL match in 1994 to see the last time Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa at Villa Park. The most recent four matches have been heavily lopsided, with Villa outscoring Forest 11-4 in its home stadium.

Forest will now have to withstand a relentless Villa attack with just a one-goal cushion to separate the two English sides. While Nottingham Forest has certainly been the more in-form team as of late, relying on such a small lead in a hostile environment does not bode well for Pereira’s squad.

It’s also not like Forest dominated Villa by any means in the first leg. Pereira’s squad was only able to find the back of the net from the penalty spot following a handball by Villa defender Lucas Digne in the penalty area. Forest only generated one other big chance in the match that was ultimately missed.

Based on the history of these teams, expect Villa to at a minimum win the match, and also likely find a way to advance to the Europa League final when this one’s all said and done.

Best Bet: Aston Villa ML (-140)
Best Bet: Aston Villa to Advance (+105)

Freiburg vs. Braga Odds & Analysis

Similar to the previous matchup, Freiburg returns home for the second leg down just a goal. The German side is now the underdog to advance after entering the tie as slight favorites over Braga.

These two clubs met for the first time last Thursday. Neither side was particularly dominant; however, the home team ultimately played well enough to warrant the one-goal lead they take to Germany this week.

Freiburg’s offensive output was not nearly enough to come away with a result in the first leg. Julian Schuster’s club had played several games in a short span, and fatigue appeared to set in late in the second half when Braga had its best attacking spell of the contest.

Both squads made some rotational changes in their domestic leagues over the weekend, and are expected to showcase their best 11 when they meet at the Europa-Park-Stadion on Thursday afternoon. Freiburg has been unbeatable at home during this Europa League campaign and will look to continue that streak in the biggest game of the season.

The Portuguese side’s one-goal cushion could be in danger based on what we’ve seen from Freiburg at home during the knockout rounds. Schuster’s squad has outscored its opponents 8-1 at the Europa-Park-Stadion in the Round of 16 and quarterfinals.

The German side has allowed just two goals in total over the six Europa League home matches it’s played this season. Freiburg has proven to be one of the hardest teams to beat on its home grounds, and Vicens’ squad will have a tall task ahead of it holding onto the one-goal lead.

Like Aston Villa, you can expect Freiburg to more than likely win the match outright, but also advance to the Europa League final.

Best Bet: Freiburg ML -135
Best Bet: Freiburg to Advance +110

Thursday’s UEFA Europa League DFS Picks

Thursday’s Europa League DFS lineup consists of some of last week’s top performers, as well as some players who will need to play a significant role for their teams in the final leg of the semifinals.

To start us off, two of Emery’s most important attacking players, Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers, fill out forward positions in this lineup. Neither one of the English internationals had a particularly strong showing in the first leg. However, you can expect Villa to have a much more eager approach on the attacking end, with Watkins and Rogers being two of the primary options for Emery to rely on.

Freiburg’s Vincenzo Grifo has been one of Schuster’s most consistent players throughout the entirety of the Europa League campaign. The Italian international has now had at least one goal contribution in each of his last four UEL matches, with 8 G/A overall in the competition. With his squad down a goal, expect Grifo to be a primary option for Schuster and co. from his attacking midfield position.

Our second midfield option in this lineup will be Grifo’s running mate, Johan Manzambi. We’ve showcased the Swedish youngster several times in these lineups, and with good reason. Manzambi did not see much of the ball in the first leg but was dangerous despite his limited touches. The 20-year-old will likely have more time on the ball with Freiburg averaging significantly more possession at home in the knockout rounds.

Aston Villa’s Digne makes our lineup despite his mistake leading to the lone goal in this tie. The Frenchman became an important piece for Emery as a left-back option after facing some injuries at the position earlier this season. Digne has been strong in defense for much of his career and has become a threat going forward up the left-hand flank. The 32-year-old has provided two assists in his last four starts for Villa.

Braga’s Victor Gomez rounds out our two defenders in this lineup. Similar to Digne, Gomez has played a pivotal role on the right flank for much of the season. The Spanish international has now provided an assist in back-to-back Europa League games, while also serving as an elite defender on the right-hand side throughout the campaign.

Nottingham’s Stefan Ortega gets the nod as our goalkeeper for this lineup. The German keeper has been spectacular in the Europa League, conceding just one goal over his last three matches. Ortega made four crucial saves in the first leg and will likely have far more to make with Villa expected to relentlessly attack his net down one goal.

Braga’s hero in the first leg, Mario Dorgeles, rounds out our lineup in the flex position. The Ivorian international scored the match-winning goal in stoppage time of the first leg. Dorgeles has primarily been a bench option for Pereira this season, but could be a part of the starting 11 after scoring once again during the weekend. Dorgeles can provide some much-needed reinforcements in the midfield, and potentially help Braga extend its lead in this tie.

Photo Credit: AP/Dave Shopland