MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, June 25, 2026
We got shut out on Wednesday, as Yordan Alvarez, Eugenio Suarez, and Corbin Carroll each failed to hit home runs. It was a real disappointment, as I felt good about those plays. Let’s flush that result and move on to Thursday.
Today, we’re going with Bryson Stott, Joc Pederson, and Lars Nootbaar. We’re focusing on players with longer odds for today’s column.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 51-203 (+0.2 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, June 25
Bryson Stott Home Run Odds
Bryson Stott isn’t a major power threat by any means, as his career-high is only 15 home runs. While he’s slashing an underwhelming .241/.298/.403 with seven home runs in 277 plate appearances, he has a career-high 7.1% barrel rate, up from 5.1% last season.
I like the spot for Stott tonight. For one, he homered last night. I like to target hitters who have homered recently because these often come in bunches. We’re trying to catch a power binge here.
On top of that, it’s a solid matchup vs. Nationals’ right-hander Cade Cavalli, who is allowing a .361 wOBA against lefties like Stott (.289 wOBA). You also have to like that Stott has one home run in eight career plate appearances against Cavalli.
We’re getting longer than +700 odds on this prop, making it worth a look, especially in a hitter-friendly environment like Nationals Park. Risk 0.1 units.
Joc Pederson Home Run Odds
Joc Pederson is a veteran hitter with a strong track record for power, including a 36-homer season under his belt. After an abysmal debut season with the Rangers, they’re getting some value out of him at the plate this year. The veteran righty-masher is slashing .242/.342/.440 with 10 home runs in 244 plate appearances.
Up next is an exploitable matchup against Blue Jays’ righty Kevin Gausman, who is coming off an awful outing against the Cubs, where he gave up seven earned runs in only two innings. Gausman has now given up at least one homer in four consecutive starts.
Additionally, Pederson has one home run and a .613 expected slugging percentage in 17 plate appearances vs. Gausman. When you consider that we’re getting longer than +400 odds on this prop at the time of this article, you have to feel a bit intrigued.
It also helps that Pederson is coming into this game in decent form, homering twice in his last eight games. We’ll bet on him to hit No. 11 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Lars Nootbaar Home Run Odds
Lars Nootbaar has been quite productive since returning to the Cardinals’ lineup, slashing .291/.394/.473 with two home runs in 66 plate appearances. This includes a respectable 11.9% barrel rate.
Nootbaar has hit safely in six of his last seven games, so it’s a good time to take him to go yard, especially in an exploitable matchup vs. Diamondbacks’ right-hander Zac Gallen.
Gallen has been absolutely atrocious this season, registering a 5.69 xERA and a 1.47 HR/9 in 79.2 innings. He got obliterated by the Twins in his last start, allowing nine earned runs in only four innings.
On top of that, Gallen has gotten crushed by lefties like Nootbaar, allowing a .400 wOBA (.352 wOBA) vs. righties. Nootbaar has one homer and a.741 expected slugging percentage in eight career plate appearances vs. Gallen. Risk 0.1 units.
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