World Cup First Goal Scoring Picks, Odds, Predictions for Tuesday, June 16, 2026

By Phil West | Jun 15, 2026, 4:40pm

On Tuesday, the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot race starts in earnest.

With France, Norway, and Argentina all getting out of the gates that day, one of the biggest questions looming over the quartet of matches will be if one or more of Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland, and Lionel Messi can join Folarin Balogun with a brace to get into prime Golden Boot winning position.

For Mbappé, the challenge is twofold — as France plays Senegal, likely their toughest test of the group stage, with all the attendant pressures of being one of the tournament favorites. Also, though, Mbappé has teammates like Ousmane Dembélé, Desire Doue, and Michael Olise who are also capable of scoring.

Haaland and Messi have easier opponents to contend with on the opening day, and though they both have solid supporting casts, it’s also clear to everyone who’s going to forge the best and most chances to score.

It’s quite possible, should both France and Argentina win their groups as expected, that we get a repeat of the 2022 final, in which France and Argentina dueled for both the trophy and the Golden Boot in one epic match. While Argentina took the title that year, Mbappé’s heroic hat trick got him the award for most goals scored that World Cup (with eight) and landed France into penalty kicks to decide it all.

Tuesday also brings Austria and Jordan into the picture with a late-night West Coast start, though most of the headlines that day are likely to be written by the time that match rolls around.

Tap these three to not only score, but to score first. Make sure to check out our World Cup match trends page for daily odds, insights and betting data for each game.

Kylian Mbappé, France (first goalscorer)
Erling Haaland, Norway (first goalscorer)
Lionel Messi, Argentina (first goalscorer)

Kylian Mbappé, France (first goalscorer)

Both Mbappé and Dembélé are first-choice frontline players for France, and one could make the case — given PSG’s repeat as Champions League winners — that Dembélé comes into the tournament in better form and with more overall confidence.

But when it comes to France and its World Cup fortunes, Mbappé has been l’homme two tournaments in a row, powering France to a win in 2018 while still a teenager, and putting the team on his back for a comeback in the 2022 final when it looked like Argentina would roll to a relatively easy win in 90.

Mbappé will get a lot of goals in this World Cup, and stands a better chance to get them in future group stage games against Norway and especially Iraq. But this World Cup script almost demands the reigning top goalscorer reopens his account in the opener.

Erling Haaland, Norway (first goalscorer)

In a topsy-turvy Premier League season that saw City get a needed late-season win over Arsenal and then drop key points late, Haaland was a force, scoring 27 goals and adding eight assists. It was in the 2020 Under 20 World Cup match where Haaland announced himself to the world, scoring nine goals in a single match, and he’s fulfilled that potential by getting the Landslaget to the big show.

Norway is more than just Haaland, of course — Martin Ødegaard captained Arsenal to the Premier League title and Champions League final, and Jørgen Strand Larsen will look to benefit from the attention Haaland will draw to contribute his own goals. But Haaland is nearly impossible to contain, and Iraq will likely face that hard truth early.

Lionel Messi, Argentina (first goalscorer)

No matter how many times you see him play, it’s uncanny how Messi can take a sliver of space and a finite amount of time left unguarded to pop up into a scoring position and then score. He’s done it throughout an incredible club and country career, notching more than 900 goals in that time.

Throughout this tournament, Argentina will get goals from players other than Messi — though they might be goals that Messi assists. Julián Alvarez and Lautaro Martínez are capable scorers who had successful, profile-raising seasons, and this World Cup has the potential to elevate that status even further. But when the Albiceleste play, most of the eyes focus on No. 10 for good reason, and indications hold that he’ll continue scoring to reward that attention.

Photo Credit: AP/Aurel Obreja

Phil West

Phil West is a writer based in Austin, Texas, whose work has appeared in a wide range of outlets, including MLSSoccer.com, Backheeled, and Howler, as well as major publications such as the Los Angeles Times, Seattle Times, Austin Chronicle, and San Antonio Express-News. He also wrote two books on soccer for The Overlook Press.