The Buffalo Bills head to Baltimore this weekend in a potential playoff preview between two of the AFC’s best teams. Both teams have started the 2022 season 2-1, with their one loss coming at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. Let’s take a closer look at the odds, rankings, and injuries to see which team will advance to 3-1.
Buffalo Bills Vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds
The Buffalo Bills are road favorites -3 versus the Baltimore Ravens +3 with the over under currently set at 53.5. Scoring league wide has dropped about five points per game, but the Ravens lead the league in points scored while the Bills narrowly trail, ranking third. Both teams currently average at least 30 points per game, making the over the tempting pick.
Buffalo Bills Vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction
This matchup is all about quarterbacks who do it all for their teams with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen being the only quarterbacks to lead their teams in passing AND rushing yards this season. Not only do they lead their teams statistically, but also the league. Allen currently leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,014, while Jackson has thrown the most touchdowns with 10. Their impressive performances through three games have landed both these quarterbacks in the MVP conversation.
However eyes should also focus on the these teams’ defenses. The Bills defense had to play without five of their defensive starters last week, including their two starting safeties, Micah Hyde and Jordan. This definitely hurt them versus the Dolphins, particularly on this 45 yard pass to Jaylen Waddle on 3rd and 22.
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) September 26, 2022
Even so, the Bills held the Dolphins to a respectable 21 points and Tyreek Hill to 33 receiving yards. Through three games the Bills rank 1st in yards allowed and 4th in points allowed.
Meanwhile, the Ravens defense ranks on the opposite end as they are dead last in yards allowed, allowing 408 yards per game so far this season. They also rank in the bottom 10 in points allowed, giving up 27 points per game. If the Patriots and Mac Jones could score 26 on the Ravens, it’s hard to imagine the Ravens defense stopping Josh Allen and the #1 passing attack.
Though the Ravens are playing at home, I’m taking the Bills to win their first one score game since the 2020 season. Given that they are the more complete team, especially on defense, they should beat the Lamar-centered Ravens.
Prediction: Bills 33-28, Over hits.
- Ravens are 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- Bills are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss
Buffalo Bills Injuries: Ryan Bates (Q), Dane Jackson (Q), Mitch Morse (Q), Tommy Doyle (O), Ed Oliver (Q), Jordan Poyer (Q), Christian Benford (O), Jordan Phillips (Q),Spencer Brown (Q), Jake Kumerow (Q), Stefon Diggs (Q)
Baltimore Ravens Injuries: James Proche (Q), Ronnie Stanley (Q), Patrick Mekari (Q), Trent Harris (Q), Michael Pierce (Q), Justin Houston (Q)
In a game with two high powered offenses, it’s going to come down to how each secondary can perform in key spots this weekend.
Josh Allen vs Ravens Secondary
Once known for their star cornerbacks and secondary, the Ravens have struggled in pass defense this season. They rank dead last in pass yards given up and have allowed the only 6 passing touchdown game of the season. The good news is passing yards aren’t everything! Though they go up against the current passing yards leader in Josh Allen, Allen’s offense only scored 17 points last week despite him throwing for 400 yards. The bad news is the Ravens redzone defense is tied for 5th worst in the league, allowing touchdowns on about 72% of redzone possessions.
The Ravens best chance at stopping Allen and his weapons may come through turnovers. The Ravens intercepted quarterback Mac Jones three times last week and safety Marcus Williams leads the league with three interceptions. Allen likely will put up yards and move the ball as he’s done all season, but if the Ravens defensive backs can steal some possessions, they will help keep the Bills from putting up too many points on the scoreboard.
Mark Andrews vs Bills Secondary
Outside of Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews has proven himself as the most reliable weapon on the Ravens offense. Mark Andrews ranks as the #1 tight end in receptions, yards, and touchdowns after coming off an 8 reception game for 89 yards and a touchdown, including this incredible one handed snag.
A snag by Money Mark 🔥🔥🔥
Tune in on FOX! pic.twitter.com/2OBZG0nKya
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 25, 2022
Both of the Bills safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer missed last week’s game versus the Dolphins and Hyde will remain out for the rest of the season. If Poyer doesn’t return this week, the Ravens could line up Andrews to exploit a mismatch versus some inexperienced players in the Bills secondary. The Ravens could also use Andrews as a decoy to free up their young receivers Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman against the #2 pass defense in football.